Feb 25th - Mar 1st : Southern States snowstorm

Chris Carter

Chris Carter

EF3
Joined
Apr 4, 2009
Messages
234
Location
Lincoln, NE
We all know the saying as weather geeks.

March comes in like a lion and leaves like a lamb. or the other way around.

GFS over the past two runs has been hinting to a big system digging into the South tapping the Gulf of Mexico and bring down cold air from the north to create maybe the largest snowstorm the Southern states have seen so far this year. Though its two weeks out and the models are indeed going to change, I think its something to keep an eye on.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_384m.gif

The 06z model really paints the picture as a strong low pressure comes into southern California and streaks across the US/MX border as another low develops off the TX coast and feeds moisture into both storms. With cold air in place across Central Plains, looks like the heaviest snow will be over Kansas, Oklahoma, and North TX eastward. Some of the estimates are up to 2" of liquid or more in the cold sector.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_336m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_348m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_360m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_372m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_384m.gif
 
How do the ensembles look for that time frame? The op-GFS is just about worthless outside of 150 hours. A 384 hour forecast should be taken with many grains of salt.
 
I will undoubtedly be sure to give you mad props if this verifies. if it does, this would really be a historic winter... atleast for Oklahoma I believe.
 
rdale said:
...and a 3-week ensemble forecast is worth its weight in sugar...
Click to expand...

My question about how the ensembles look for that time was a gentle coaxing to get him to actually look at the ensembles and how much uncertainty there is that far out. Bowl of ensemble spaghetti = throwing darts at US map > GFS

I suppose a simple "noob!" would have sufficed :)
 
I appreciate that. :)

No, i didn't look at the ensembles, i dont need to because i know how inconsistent it is going to be that far out. I don't really look at models on a daily basis when the weather is like this is my area. I check it twice a week just to see what is on the horizon.
 
I have to admit I didn't think much when this thread was posted since it was way over 300 hours out. Looking at the last couple runs of the GFS it does have a trough coming into the southern plains around the 22nd or 23rd of this month. Who knows if this will actually come to be, but at only 8 days out or so it bears watching. The 06z run of the GFS shows a fairly impressive upper level low for the 23rd into the 24th with high liquid precip. amounts. Things may be right on the fringe of being cold enough to receive snow or rain. Of course those details aren't hashed out until very very close to a certain event. Here is the forecasted upper level 850mb low valid the evening of the 23rd and overnight into the 24th. I don't usually believe the models this far out and the GFS is all I have looked at in regards to this. It's fun to watch these things unfold anyway to see if they come to be. Feel free to chime in with your own thoughts. Since you guys above were talking about ensembles above I did forget to mention that they are of course all over the place this far out, but what else is there to talk about until Spring? :)


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_850_228s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_850_240s.gif
 
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GFS and ECMWF agree that very cold air will again be plunging south through the southern plains by the middle of next week. They also agree on the potential for a significant winter storm to come out of the southwest U.S. once the cold air is in place. It is way too early to pin down the timing, track, or intensity, but sometime in the 24th-28th timeframe certainly looks interesting. Currently the ECMWF has this all happening sooner and the GFS later. Should be interesting!
 
I haven't looked at the models , but it is interesting to read the OUN Forecast Disc. last night (3:31 am)

BY SUNDAY WE MAY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IN PARTS OF THE AREA IF IT REMAINS COLD
ENOUGH... OR HEAVY RAIN IF IT DOESN`T. OR BOTH. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE THE MAKINGS OF ANOTHER MAJOR
WINTER STORM FOR PARTS OF THE EAST DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.
 
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SECOND SYSTEM IS DUE IN THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND LOOKS MORE ROBUST WITH
EACH MODEL RUN. THIS ONE IS LIKELY TO TAKE A MORE NORTHERN ROUTE
AND THUS IS MORE LIKELY TO DROP PRECIP ON A LARGER PART OF THE
AREA. THUS HIGHER POPS MOST AREAS. BUT WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY... IT APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAT
IT WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. MODERATE SE WINDS SUGGEST RAIN FOR STARTERS
IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY... BUT AS WINDS BACK AROUND TO E-NE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WE MAY TAP ENOUGH COOLER AIR TO FORCE A MIX OR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THIS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR N OF I-40 OR
PERHAPS NW OF I-44. IT IS LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER CASE OF BEST
FORCING PROBABLY MOVING OFF BEFORE THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH... SO
PRECIP ENDS OR TAPERS OFF BEFORE IT GOES OVER TO SNOW. BUT SHOULD
THE COOLER AIR HOLD ITS GROUND MORE FIRMLY AND THE CHANGEOVER IS
SOONER... WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER SNOW EVENT IN OK. GFS DROPS 4-8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF NW OK SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS ONE CLOSELY.

THIRD SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONCE AGAIN
IT LOOKS LIKE A RACE BETWEEN THE BEST LIFT AND THE COOLER AIR...
AND THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THEY WILL JUXTAPOSE. THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR EVENTUALLY WILL ARRIVE IN TIME FOR A
CHANGEOVER... AND THUS A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW. WE WILL RUN CHANCE
POPS ALL AREAS SUNDAY-MONDAY AND GO WITH RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS MOST
OF CENTRAL/N OK AFTER SUNDAY. ECMWF DEPICTS AN EVOLUTION WITH SOME
CLASSIC CHARACTERISTICS OF HEAVY SNOW EVENTS IN OK. STILL A LONG
WAY OUT... BUT ONE WEEK FROM TODAY IS MARCH 1 AND SO MARCH MADNESS
COULD BEGIN IN CLASSIC FORM.

Jason, I also thought that was interesting when i read this this morning. and the talk of 4-8" of snow possible in NW OK Thur through Fri. and also how they talked up the next few storm systems that will be coming through our area. really gets me excited since I am basically in NW OK being just 15 miles to the OK line.
 
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