Feb 20-22 FCST: KS/MO Winter Storm

[Michael O'Keeffe]

The last few GFS runs have had much of KS/MO getting pounded by a major winter storm this weekend. A low looks to move east from the TX Panhandle through C OK and into AR allowing the heaviest snow band which at this time looks to set up from I70 south to US54 basically Dodge City to Salina through KC and into C Illinois. The south side of Kansas City looks like it will once again be the sweet spot with 12-16" looking possible!! Hopefully this will be the grand finale with the winter and then it will warm up.

 

[MatthewCarman]

The last few GFS runs have had much of KS/MO getting pounded by a major winter storm this weekend. A low looks to move east from the TX Panhandle through C OK and into AR allowing the heaviest snow band which at this time looks to set up from I70 south to US54 basically Dodge City to Salina through KC and into C Illinois. The south side of Kansas City looks like it will once again be the sweet spot with 12-16" looking possible!! Hopefully this will be the grand finale with the winter and then it will warm up.

The local news here in central Iowa had the winter storm farther north with the heaviest snow in Iowa with mostly rain for Missouri. That was yesterday though. Maybe Missouri will see a freezing rain event if the low does track further north. Etheir way I should get snow but if it stays on the south track I probably will see just light snow which is fine by me.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

I agree with Michael in that the models do depict a nice swath of heavy snow across the 70 corridor in MO. The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are all on it pretty good as of 12z. The GFS has been overdoing snow amounts this winter, so I'm not overly excited about this yet. I also think, traditionally these storms tend to gradually take a southern path and hang onto that I-44 corridor. I wouldn't be surprised by that at all. Definitely something to watch, but I've been burned by the models too many times to look at them with much confidence right now. Maybe Friday I will take them more seriously .

 

[MatthewCarman]

Looks like the heaviest snow will be in Missouri on Sunday. If this outlook continues Missouri could be in for a big snowstorm. I am expecting only a dusting from this storm in central Iowa.

 

[Chris Carter]

Those poor folks out in Western KS will miss another winter storm...

 

[Chris Heater]

Good thing I checked the winter forum. Didn't know about this storm until now. Guess I better keep an eye on it as it may impact us here in Central Illinois

 

[DWest]

I took a look at the models and noticed the freezing rain potential for south-central Missouri; I'm surprised there hasn't been any hint whatsoever from the NWS itself or any news outlets about the potential magnitude of this storm.

Will certainly be keeping an eye out on this one, although I'm not holding my breath as the last couple storms have been a bust for my location.



Image courtesy of coolwx.com

 

[Robert Hettchen]

Those poor folks out in Western KS will miss another winter storm...

ya. to say the least, it has been a very disapointing winter, so far.........

 

[DWest]

Models still showing very high QPF with this upcoming storm on Sunday/Monday; latest GFS run indicating St. Louis receiving upwards of 1" liquid equivalent all falling as snow. HPC's QPF is also remarkably high, with much of south-central Missouri likewise picking up over an inch, upwards to about 1.6" in some areas.

 

[Chris Heater]

Models still showing very high QPF with this upcoming storm on Sunday/Monday; latest GFS run indicating St. Louis receiving upwards of 1" liquid equivalent all falling as snow. HPC's QPF is also remarkably high, with much of south-central Missouri likewise picking up over an inch, upwards to about 1.6" in some areas.

What exactly would that mean snow totals exactly? Probably too soon to put down exact snow ratios...but i'll assume there around 15:1? ILX just recently put out a special weather statement for all of central Illinois talking about the snowfall possibilities. If it shifts just a bit north, we'll be in the heaviest band

 

[rdale]

00Z NAM has all rain for Springfield.

 

[DWest]

What exactly would that mean snow totals exactly? Probably too soon to put down exact snow ratios...but i'll assume there around 15:1? ILX just recently put out a special weather statement for all of central Illinois talking about the snowfall possibilities. If it shifts just a bit north, we'll be in the heaviest band

I honestly wouldn't know, although even lowballing the SLR and going with 10:1, with the current figures, would result in a respectable 10" snowfall in many areas of central Missouri and southern Illinois. For my area here in Crawford county it looks like the current forecasts call for a mixed bag of freezing rain and sleet probably topped off with a couple inches of snow....

 

[Joel Wright]

00Z NAM has all rain for Springfield.

Yeah, the area of snow really isn't all that wide. NAM depicts some pretty vigorous WAA ahead of the low pressure at all levels. The GFS is full of convective feedback, so it's almost useless with this latest run.

This is going to be a tricky one to forecast. With the storm still off shore I won't be buying into anything just yet. I think by early Saturday we'll begin to get a good idea where things will lay out.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Looks like a good solid 6-10" of snow (possibly convective type) for the KC Metro on Sunday 21st. Right now getting giant snowflakes here in OP so may be looking at some accum. by rush hour here if trends continue...ground a bit warm so that will have to be overcome first.

 

[Mark Sefried]

This mornings run on both models continue to indicate a slightly more northerly track to the system due to the storm being storm a little stronger with each run. If you "trust" them now, here in Peoria I am going to get a crappy mixture of rain, a little sleet, and snow with around 3-4 inches. All I can say is that Joel may have a fun time digging out where he lives a little NE of Moline, lol. A good 6-9 inches appears likely and maybe a few isolated areas receiving close to 10-12 inches across northern MO NE towards the Western Chicago suburbs. Of course if the sysytem is a little weaker it most likely will go further south and maybe I will get into the heavy snow band. As others have mentioned, once the system gets on shore we will get a much better handle on things. I imagine that winter storm watches will be issued by sat evening at the latest for Northern Mo, SE Iowa, and a large potion of northern IL, far NW Indiana and perhaps far southern lower MI.