Dorian Discussion Thread

[JeremyS]

Josh is okay. He tweeted from Nassau a bit ago!

 

[Kevin R Burgess]

Give him a medal !

 

[Greg Campbell]

Call me cynical but what better way to drum up media interest than by going 'missing' for a day and a half, only to 'miraculously' survive with great adventures to share! (Sorry, but his whole 'tough guy storm chaser!' act kinda rubs me the wrong way.)

 

[Warren Faidley]

Really amazing how many people were shooting footage with phone cameras in the Bahamas. Really kills the value of footage, unlike the old days.

 

[James K]

Really amazing how many people were shooting footage with phone cameras in the Bahamas. Really kills the value of footage, unlike the old days.

Probably true, especially since they're willing to 'share' it with TV stations for free.
But I must say there is a big difference between a video taken on a phone held the wrong way(vertically), verses an actual camera, especially on a tripod.
...worst thing of all is how the TV guys like to take the 'blank space' on the sides of vertical-video and fill it with a blurry copy of the video. ug. awful. just leave it black, or better still, use some station/network graphics in that space.

 

[Jake Orosi]

Well...think about it; unlike highly transient events like tornadoes, this hurricane lasted for a couple of days, and many of the people who took cell phones of the storm damage are owners of destroyed homes. Their cell phones might be the only working piece of technology left in their possession and they really have nothing else to do with their lives at this moment besides take video of the devastation - and I mean that in the saddest possible way.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Also interesting how anyone who labels themselves a "hurricane chaser" and just casually risks their life to simply experience the mayhem, instead having any legitimate reason for being there, is looked upon as some type of hero. I guess this falls under the heading of "storm Influencer?" Kind of like Paris Hilton or Kim Kardashian.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Live feed from Frying Pan Tower 35 miles offshore of Cape Fear. They'll likely see eyewall if not a solid eye strike.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Also interesting how anyone who labels themselves a "hurricane chaser" and just casually risks their life to simply experience the mayhem, instead having any legitimate reason for being there, is looked upon as some type of hero. I guess this falls under the heading of "storm Influencer?" Kind of like Paris Hilton or Kim Kardashian.

Not sure this is any different than with storm (tornado) chasers - if not by intent or in actuality, then at least by public perception.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Jim Edds has not yet made it out of Hope Town, and apparently the island has not yet received any assistance.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1169565837172379648

 

[Warren Faidley]

Jim Edds has not yet made it out of Hope Town, and apparently the island has not yet received any assistance.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1169565837172379648

There is obviously communication, so I would not be too worried. The big problem right now is violent crime. Multiple reports coming in. I'd hide those SD cards on my person if they have good footage. It's one thing to lose your equipment, but the footage would be painful.

 

[Warren Faidley]

TWC needs to hand out some Xanax tabs to the crews in SC. I understand the inertia of covering a Category 5 that did not pan out the way you thought it would, but really? Winds of 30 mph are not destructive and you don't need your crew to be considering "taking shelter" as a leaf blows down the street under light rain. How about showing some ba__s and sending someone to the Bahamas?

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Surge battering the OBX with Pamlico Sound well into major flood as Dorian's farewell "present" to the Carolinas. This might turn out to be worse for them than some other recent Cat. 1 brushes with the area such as Florence, Matthew and Irene.

National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)

water.weather.gov

 

[Dan Robinson]

The official declaration of landfall at Hatteras was made this morning, though on radar loops the center looked like it passed offshore.

 

[JamesCaruso]

TWC needs to hand out some Xanax tabs to the crews in SC. I understand the inertia of covering a Category 5 that did not pan out the way you thought it would, but really? Winds of 30 mph are not destructive and you don't need your crew to be considering "taking shelter" as a leaf blows down the street under light rain. How about showing some ba__s and sending someone to the Bahamas?

Inertia is not even an excuse, there was never even a threat of a Cat 3 landfall once FL was no longer in the path.

 

[James K]

Earlier this evening I looked at the NHC website to check on Dorian, see if it'd made it to Canada. (which it had)
But there's something I'm curious on they said "Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian", but it still had 100mph sustained winds.
That's still within hurricane strength...so why does it not rate "Hurricane Dorian" anymore?
Simply because its gone so far north??

 

[JamesCaruso]

Earlier this evening I looked at the NHC website to check on Dorian, see if it'd made it to Canada. (which it had)
But there's something I'm curious on they said "Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian", but it still had 100mph sustained winds.
That's still within hurricane strength...so why does it not rate "Hurricane Dorian" anymore?
Simply because its gone so far north??

It’s not *because* it’s so far north, but it is a transition that typically occurs as tropical systems move to more northern latitudes (although it doesn’t necessarily have to wait until it’s as far north as Canada). I’m no expert, and hopefully someone else will provide a better and more technical answer, but basically a tropical system undergoes a transition whereby it loses its tropical characteristics / structure and becomes more like a typical mid-latitude cyclone. Sometimes it combines or gets caught up with other existing frontal boundaries or mid-latitude storms. There are some specific criteria, like it no longer has a “warm core” and it is more baroclinically driven, i.e., driven by temperature contrasts and frontal boundaries. If you look at it on satellite, it transitions from a tight circular spiral to the familiar “comma” shape of typical mid-latitude storm systems that you see traverse the continental US anytime of year, containing a warm sector and a cold front. There are specific differences between post-tropical, extratropical and subtropical. You can learn more on the NHC site.

This classification issue caused some interesting issues with Sandy back in 2012. At some point it was no longer a hurricane or tropical storm, but still had hurricane strength winds and storm surge. Back then, once it was no longer a tropical system, IIRC warning responsibility shifted from NHC to local NWS offices. There was a lot of confusion and mixed messaging as a result - people thought they were safe because it was no longer a hurricane, and yet got slammed by wind and especially surge. The general public, of course, does not care about these technical distinctions between tropical, subtropical, extratropical, etc. Changes were made going forward, so I believe now NHC continues to be responsible for warnings on the storm even when it is no longer “officially” a tropical system. Also with Sandy I heard there were insurance issues, whether or not it was “officially” a hurricane affected whether policies covered the damage. I can’t remember the details, but if you’re interested you can Google it. A good source to read about the warning issue, if you’re interested at the “inside baseball” level, is the NWS Service Assessment on Hurricane Sandy, which is publicly available.

 

[Justin Z.]

For anyone interested, here is a video of a flyover after Hurricane Dorian went through:

The video also explains what some of the things you see are.

 

[Justin Z.]

It’s not *because* it’s so far north, but it is a transition that typically occurs as tropical systems move to more northern latitudes (although it doesn’t necessarily have to wait until it’s as far north as Canada). I’m no expert, and hopefully someone else will provide a better and more technical answer, but basically a tropical system undergoes a transition whereby it loses its tropical characteristics / structure and becomes more like a typical mid-latitude cyclone. Sometimes it combines or gets caught up with other existing frontal boundaries or mid-latitude storms. There are some specific criteria, like it no longer has a “warm core” and it is more baroclinically driven, i.e., driven by temperature contrasts and frontal boundaries. If you look at it on satellite, it transitions from a tight circular spiral to the familiar “comma” shape of typical mid-latitude storm systems that you see traverse the continental US anytime of year, containing a warm sector and a cold front. There are specific differences between post-tropical, extratropical and subtropical. You can learn more on the NHC site.

This classification issue caused some interesting issues with Sandy back in 2012. At some point it was no longer a hurricane or tropical storm, but still had hurricane strength winds and storm surge. Back then, once it was no longer a tropical system, IIRC warning responsibility shifted from NHC to local NWS offices. There was a lot of confusion and mixed messaging as a result - people thought they were safe because it was no longer a hurricane, and yet got slammed by wind and especially surge. The general public, of course, does not care about these technical distinctions between tropical, subtropical, extratropical, etc. Changes were made going forward, so I believe now NHC continues to be responsible for warnings on the storm even when it is no longer “officially” a tropical system. Also with Sandy I heard there were insurance issues, whether or not it was “officially” a hurricane affected whether policies covered the damage. I can’t remember the details, but if you’re interested you can Google it. A good source to read about the warning issue, if you’re interested at the “inside baseball” level, is the NWS Service Assessment on Hurricane Sandy, which is publicly available.

Thanks for the information! It helped me understand that as well.

 

[James K]

Thanks @JamesCaruso that helps understand it. I might have to look up some of the other info later, just out of curiosity.
I can understand how something like that (happening with Sandy) would cause confusion.

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@Justin Z.
I'll have to go on YouYube later & check out that vid.