Do the best stormchasers have a "psychic" ability to find tornadoes?

[Joey Ketcham]

This may be a bit far afield, but Dr. Ted Fujita, whose expertise and research is fundamental to many facets of tornado science today, didn't see many tornadoes in person if my memory is correct. For a long time, his Illinois license plate read TF-0000 for his having never seen a tornado. I think two different aspects of attraction to storms are at work in the people who dedicate their time and energy to them.

This is a perfect example. Dr. Fujita, from what I know, never saw a tornado. He had experience in assessing damage caused by bombs dropped during the war, and later on he applied that to assessing damage caused by tornadoes. From what I can recall, he never saw a tornado but assessed the damage caused by tornadoes and thus came up with the Fujita Scale used to rate tornadoes. On top of that, he also discovered downbursts and microbursts. Dr. Fujita wasn't a storm chaser, never saw a tornado, but his knowledge advanced the science significantlly. Given that Dr. Fujita never saw a tornado, to Hazel that must mean he suck.

 

[Stan Rose]

The way i read it, Hazel didn't say Josh sucked, just that his tornado predictions did. I think if you put yourself out as a public figure (on tv) then that sort of critique is fair game.

To respond to the original question, i think pattern recognition is a big part of it, especially at storm scale, where book knowledge gets superceded by experience. It's knowing when and where to target a storm, when to throw in the towel on a particular storm and change targets, and the willingness to go the extra mile to get the goods. I've seen those qualities in all the chasers who seem to have that 'uncanny' ability to find the tornado.

 

[Gene Moore]

Dr. Fujit'a first tornado

Dr Ted Fujita did see a tornado late in his career in Colorado. I looked on line for a reference, but could not find one. This is from memory, but I believe it to be accurate.

 

[Mike Smith]

Dr Ted Fujita did see a tornado late in his career in Colorado. I looked on line for a reference, but could not find one. This is from memory, but I believe it to be accurate.

That is correct, it was in Colorado.

 

[Stephen Levine]

Even with all the data in the world, I believe that there is a clear amount of intuition involved and not listening to intuition and instead ruling 100% squarely on logic based on past experience has led me to lost tornadoes that I would have manifested if I had listened to the intuition that sometimes was very clear, sometimes was like a little child within inviting me to take a leap and operate outside of the box.
For instance there was the morning that my intuition upon awakening led me to the Tulsa area from Wichita. But after talking to a couple professional meteorologists I met on the road who had been doing professional forecasting for 20 years - and were planning to hop out to Western OK instead (thinking the dry line would move east slower), I modified my original target to Medford, OK. Though we did see wall clouds during our mad dash east that afternoon - towards Tulsa- we missed seeing the actual tornadoes reported in the Tulsa area.

 

[Brett Roberts]

A couple comments:

1. I read Hazel's original post three times over, and cannot for the life of me figure out the reason for the outraged responses. Her use of the word "suck" may be a bit brash, but the intent behind it is not unnecessarily mean-spirited; it's just a qualitative observation that I'm sure plenty of others would agree with. I don't know Josh personally, but I don't think he'd be particularly offended by the post, seeing as he's not a recreational storm chaser concerned with tornado count or bragging rights. (I sincerely doubt Stormtrack's collective opinion of his chaser skills mean much to him in comparison to, say, reviewers' opinions of his 5 June 2009 submissions to peer-reviewed journals). In summary, if you feel compelled to feign outrage, why not at least pick something more relevant to your own life?

2. I definitely understand the OP's sentiments, and have often perceived the same phenomenon myself. Chances are, most of it is in our heads, as others have already suggested. It's clear that chasers like Andy and Roger are out there more days per year than just about anyone else. Yet, even so, it does sometimes *seem* as if there's a greater disparity between different "hardcore" chasers' success rates than one might expect, given the sample sizes involved. (In other words, if you follow two different gung-ho chasers with similar experience, knowledge, and location for a period of 3 years, they'll have each chased 50+ times and you'd expect their success rates to be relatively similar). In particular, there are those chasers who almost never seem to bust on the real big-ticket days, whereas there are others who blow more of them than they bag.

One thing I've noticed with my own chasing is that I seem to encounter streaks of either success or failure. It's almost as if the confidence that naturally results from scoring big yields better decision-making, whereas "desperation mode" often backfires. If this is true, it could maybe explain why the disparity between chasers is larger than it seemingly should be: there's a psychological positive feedback associated with both good and bad chasing experiences.

 

[Patrick Marsh]

I have to chuckle at the defense of Josh; it wasn't but 18 months ago everyone was wanting his head on a platter for his comments of 19 May 2010.

 

[James Hilger]

I have to chuckle at the defense of Josh; it wasn't but 18 months ago everyone was wanting his head on a platter for his comments of 19 May 2010.

Yeah my thoughts exactly. I wasn't gonna go digging up the thread though.

 

[Rob H]

I'll sum up what I said before: Successful chasers go out often, and make sacrifices. They also don't make decisions based on factors external to the storms. Whether those sacrifices involve family/relationships, missing work, or sometimes not following the law - they're all possible issues affecting the decision-making process of a successful storm chaser. Wurman seems to have made some poor forecasts, but that's also only what's shown on a dramatic TV show. Wurman is weighed down by grants, multiple people, multiple vehicles, and multiple objectives. Very few people in this forum, if any, can say they've managed the same load. He's not a chaser so holding him to the same standards doesn't work.

Also, it's entirely possible to criticize Josh's comments from 5/19/10 and at the same time defend him from allegations that he 'sucks' as a chaser. He's not on some special pedestal where you either need to love or hate him. He's just a normal person like the rest of us here

 

[Dan Robinson]

Intuition comes from experience and study alone. There's no pre-existing 'sixth sense'. That 'gut' feeling sometimes works and sometimes doesn't. It's a non-factor that tends to get elevated on those days when it coincidencially occurs with a good catch.

 

[Simon Andersen]

Poignant to the discussion hehe. I don't get why it shouldn't be ok to criticize some people and not others, especially if they're in the public eye. Granted comparing them may be like apples and oranges but still, I don't get the outrage. I first heard of Josh on a '90s Discovery-special where he had built a remote-controlled helicopter with a videocamera attatched. I don't think there were any other sensors on it. The purpose was to fly it into a tornado but for what scientific reason I didn't get. "It's gonna work (chuckle)," he said to the guy controlling it. I think they had it out for the Rolla-tornado but hypothized that large hail would not be good for the blades, in addition to the tornado ripping it to shreds. Really? Since then, and together with other incidents as seen on tv I got a not entirely positive impression of him. I think that's ok, and ok to discuss.

 

[rdale]

It's not just that it "is" or "is not" okay to criticize, but to do so based solely on what you see on TV is missing WAY too much to give that criticism any value. Some people here work (or worked) very closely with some of the people being criticized, so I can't see how their opinion wouldn't count 10x more?

 

[Jason Harris]

Ahem, on the lighter side of the psychic & tornadoes: "Major Prediction:
The Psychic Twins predicted severe tornadoes in the Midwest in 2011."
You may lose a few IQ points by clicking, but don't resist, it will go faster that way:
http://www.davidbakerspiritmedium.com/PsychicTwinsPredictions.html

 

[Nicholas_Scherber]

1. Ever since i was young, i could predict what days it was going to rain fairly accurately without any bit of knowledge on forecasting. This is not because i am psychic but probably because my subconscious learned to recognize basic weather patterns well enough for me to make a good guess as to if it would rain or not. I think that there is a little bit of instinct involved in this as well, for centuries people have known that they can watch plants and animals to make basic assumptions on the weather(ants building up the walls of there mounds or evacuating, pinecones closing, etc...). And i think most people have had moments where it just feels like rain.
2. a couple years ago, for no apparent reason i just felt like there would be a tornado in the area, this was still before i could forcast. For proof i texted a couple of my friends telling them that i felt this way because nobody would believe me. Incredibly, the next day there was a tornado in the county. I will be the first to say that this was mostly pure dumb luck. Influenced a lot by what i said in the first paragraph, and who knows, maybe i over heard something on the news earlier that day talking about tornado probs and consciously forgot about it. Another time i felt like this, albeit less extreme was on 6/17 last year. Watching the local weather, they where saying that there could be severe weather but probably not any tornados. This actually made me a little bit angry and i told my parents that "of course there will be tornados," without doing any forecasting of any kind.
3.another interesting thing I have noticed about myself, is that although my basic strategy remains the same, i have a VASTLY greater success rate at poker when i take my ADHD meds. I am not really thinking any differently and often am playing it online while more focused on something else in another tab. The thing that does change on my meds is my instinct about how to play, i dont really have to think about what i am doing as much and can make decisions based solely off my gut. This is probably because on my meds i have a much easier time taking in information, and essentially can count cards subconsciously. Kind of a long example but this is the clearest i have ever noticed my "gut" being accurate. I do think there is reason to follow your gut in chasing, as long as you are not ignoring any obvious facts.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Maybe the psychic ability works like this: