Do the best stormchasers have a "psychic" ability to find tornadoes?

[hazelmaryjackson]

Facing a dull evening on television the other night, I pulled out an early Stormchasers DVD. It happened to feature the hapless Dr Josh Wurman getting a bust on almost every chase he led. I am sure he is a very good scientist and very good at analysing the data, but he sure seemed to suck when it came to predicting where the tornadoes would be most of the time.

The best chasers get lucky far more often than you might logically expect. I have come to think it is not just a matter of qualifications, or reading the charts, it is almost as if they have some sixth sense about where the best storms are going to form with the potential to drop a tornado.

Of course no-one gets it right every time, and you can go a long way on accurately reading the charts, but given the same degree of basic weather knowledge and access to the same software and forecasts, some people do consistently better than the odds at finding tornadoes - I call these chasers "elementals" - and some do persistently worse despite all their qualifications.

What does everyone think?

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

Dr 'Josh' Wurman runs a huge crew and is a bit less mobile than those chasers that 'fly, blast, and shoot' down the road to a storm. Although tornadoes are somewhat predictable in some circumstances, one cannot say that a tornado will strike Xxxxx, Kansas one hour out. Things change. Some circumstances change rapidly. Visually looking at the storm's morphing - along with GR3 and a laptop computer can provide - with some years of experience provide the better chasers with a catch. Those chasers that do get the 'money shot' are far more flexible than Dr Josh's crew.

I have no doubt that Dr Josh is the most qualified person chosen for that endeavor - IMO.

Wurman's driver has to find a spot to park the DOW vehicle, get the hydraulic jacks down and level the vehicle, send up an antenna to transmit findings back to a university (I cannot recall which one ATM), and coordinate the communications/movements of some of their chase vehicles. And who knows what else. Just for a single event. Messy.

Not to mention, that Sean Casey's 'tank' crew made it a lot more difficult for him to do what he was sent out there to do.
No small wonder they parted company.

On the other hand, a driver/chaser may have a passenger that is coordinating any communications (if any), run the laptop, and have a great time watching and taking pictures. The driver just needs to be maneuverable and can take shots when they get to the 'Right Spot'.

In essence, a lot less juggling and more storm focus and maneuverability than the Wurman/DOW team. . .

EDIT:
One other point. Dr Josh is out there for specific study on the lower 1000 ft of air activity of a tornado vortex. Danny Cheresnick is one of the guys on Dr Josh's team that often gets to see more tornadoes than Dr Josh. Dr Josh is in the game for the data. Danny is a fairly successful chaser on his own - IMO.

 

[Simon Andersen]

I think the subconcious mind can do amazing things picking up on miniscule clues not evident to the "logical" mind and eventually some will just "know" where to go. I had a convo with my dad the other night when he was playing Gran Turismo and he said he was never gonna get better at it, and I responded that just by doing it the mind will automatically pick up on what worked and what didn't with each lap and without you knowing you'll get better. Practice makes perfect, I thought that was common sense but apparently this is news to some.

On the other hand, your post made me think of a chaser I heard of at the turn of the century. He was an american who claimed spirits guided him to tornadoes, and the show documented how he found the crazy farmer tornado I believe it was, so around 1997. He looked like Bluestein but I guess not. Anybody heard of him?

 

[hazelmaryjackson]

I realise that Josh Wurman has a huge team on the road which makes him less mobile, but on several occasions he simply made the wrong call, and there was no evidence that the size of his team was a consideration. He was in the wrong place at the wrong time. That doesn't alter how good he might be at analysing collected data.

It is certainly true that it is much easier to track a storm if you have a 4wd truck and can race along dirt roads. But you still have to make the right call about which storm to chase in the first place. It just seems that some chasers, Andy Gabrielson for example, have a higher success rate than others. It seems to about more than reading the charts. Some extra factor comes into play. IMO.

 

[Andy Jackson]

I realise that Josh Wurman has a huge team on the road which makes him less mobile, but on several occasions he simply made the wrong call, and there was no evidence that the size of his team was a consideration. He was in the wrong place at the wrong time. That doesn't alter how good he might be at analysing collected data.

It is certainly true that it is much easier to track a storm if you have a 4wd truck and can race along dirt roads. But you still have to make the right call about which storm to chase in the first place. It just seems that some chasers, Andy Gabrielson for example, have a higher success rate than others. It seems to about more than reading the charts. Some extra factor comes into play. IMO.

I don't know but until you actually chase storms you will not understand what it takes to chase tornadoes. For the most part it's knowing the ingredients, and persistence/determination that leads to seeing tornadoes. I know certain "big name" chasers have had their share of busts (when others scored). But yes, over time as a chaser becomes more experienced they get more of a feel for the right environment to see tornadoes.

I wouldn't really compare people you see in the stormchaser spotlight like: Josh W. or Andy G. these guys have earned respect in two completely different aspects of storm chasing. I think the few pro chasers that exist today, know that they have to get tornado video and they know in order to be relevant they need to get up-close and personal.

 

[Mark Blue]

Sometimes it seems like certain chasers have the ability (psychic or otherwise) to wind up on the storm that produces a tornado. I'd like to believe that experience and persistence are at the heart of why these chasers have such a high success rate. One chaser that comes to mind is Roger Hill. I swear every time he chases it seems as though he ends up seeing a tornado, but in reality he doesn't. I'd venture a guess that his success rate is much, much higher than the average chaser and it seems like he has a 6th sense for getting on the storm that produces a tornado. However, I chased with him 3 times in 2005 and 2006 and only during one chase did we end up seeing a tornado. The other two were chases where severe weather occurred, but when all the dust settled we didn't see a tornado. This is certainly not a knock on his ability, I just wanted to point out that even the best chasers come up empty handed at times if success is measured by the number of tornadoes a person sees compared to the number of times they chase each season. The one skill Roger has that is hard to develop is making all the right decisions during the chase. If a person makes all the right calls during the chase their success rate will improve without a doubt. If it hasn't come across with what I just stated let me make it clear - I have an immense amount of respect for Roger and can only hope that I see 1/4th the number of tornadoes in my life as he has!

I believe if a person wants to improve their success rate and *appear* to others as though they are one of the best chasers out in the field there is no substitute for experience and chasing as often as possible, if not every chance that comes along. If a person has a traditional job like I do and cannot chase every single event that emerges, chances are they won't have the kind of success rate that would put them in the upper echelons of the chasing community. If a person has the flexibility to be out chasing year round, then it's only a matter of time before they become very adept at the fine art of chasing and seeing tornadoes more often than the average bear.

 

[Stephen Levine]

I had this very question come up just last night after re-watching Tim Marshall's 1999 awesome tornado intercept video. He chased under such a variety of various setups even including a cold front moving southward - - and scored. He seemed so secure, that his observations about building wall clouds almost seemed like commands to produce.

After watching the video, I commented to my wife "it seems that this man has the same capacity to scope out tornadoes hours ahead of the time that a healer instinctively knows what chakra (energy center) to go to to identify the problem & promote the best healing".

She reminded me that I only saw his scores, not his "busts". We both laughed about the prospect of watching a tornado chase video that would high light busts.

One of my childhood baseball idols Roberto Clemente besides being a stunning outfielder was a great hitter and scored runs slightly over 1/3 of the time at bat. That means that the other two times he didn't . Something to keep in mind when we chase supercells - - only 10% of which statistically drop twisters.

 

[Jason Foster]

"psychic" is in reality just: pattern recognition + knowledge = amazing results. I've often found with myself that attention to details is a big part of that pattern recognition thing. I've ALWAYS been good about pattern recognition, since I was a kid. Others have the ability too. You can pick up certain details, and when matched with others, you can sometimes come to a prediction that is rather good...even if you don't have the academic knowledge. I apply it everywhere in life, often calling it different things at different times, like "good parking karma" which reflects I just seem to ALWAYS get a good spot, even in the most crowded of parking lots. It is more a matter of paying attention to peoples habits like popular times folks shop, and watching how they approach their car. Weather is the same, certain patterns are there and can be recognized. We talk all the time about them, but the key of course is knowledge aiding in that. Once you have both sides, you tend to become very successful. It is "psychic" ability, just attention to details.

 

[Dave Gallaher]

I seem to remember back in the StormTrack print days that publisher David Hoadley once described Al Moller as having the ability to 'psych out' tornadoes.

 

[hazelmaryjackson]

I think the pattern recognition thing is very interesting. Maybe it is partly subconcious. I was chasing for two weeks at the end of May and it was very informative to review which chasers were on the best storms each day, and which ended up bust. Of course everyone gets bust but do some chasers get a more consistent success rate? Seems to me we don't know. I think some do and we might ask why? Is it just about qualifications or an innate feel for where the data is pointing, which may be due to pattern recognition?

 

[rdale]

Pattern recognition is a strong component of ALL forecasting - whether you're talking general weather or just about anything else in this world (that isn't completely reliant on chance.) Give me two people with equal training but 20 years difference in experience levels, and I'll trust the person who has been doing it half his life over the newbie no matter what area we're talking about.

I'm not sure this is a new revelation. We know it.

 

[Patrick Marsh]

I have no doubt that Dr Josh is the most qualified person chosen for that endeavor - IMO.

This is in no way a knock on Josh, but he is not someone I would want forecasting for me. He is excellent at coordinating radars and getting his mission done. Although Josh can talk about tornado environments and has a ton of knowledge, he is not a forecaster -- a fact I'm sure he would readily admit.

 

[rdale]

Patrick - you obviously don't have the experience to comment on that, because everyone else sees him on the show

 

[Patrick Marsh]

Does VORTEX2 count?

 

[rdale]

Only if you stayed at a Holiday Inn Express while on the road...