Countdown till active severe weather

[Daniel Christianson]

There is always an offical start to severe weather season" you know that day when all the sirens go off in the county in prepareness for severe weather season? The nws issues a test tornado watch, then following a warning, and the sirens go off. Giving you the goosebumps of excitemnet on your body, and you can say aloud or quietly to yourself ( YEAH its here ) , im thinking late march will have something to chase... ( just a few more months guy's we can stick it out.....

 

[Shane Adams]

Given the lack of moisture we have had in 'Tornado Alley' since late October, I am starting to think that this year will be a bust around here (C&W KS, OK, TX Panhandles). Unless we get some good precip events in the next 6-8 weeks, then it may be a better fire season than tornado season around here.

I couldn't agree more. Hope we're wrong.

 

[Karla Dorman]

According to NOAA DFW Forecast Discussion, may have some severe in the Southern Plains as a low gets its act together and meanders this way early next week. Of course, too far out to acurately predict, low may track further north ... time will tell.

Don't think there's a "set" season for severe, can happen anytime, anywhere. I know! LOL The tornado that politely removed my roof was on January 17, 1996, 9:45 at night.

 

[Jim Cross]

Matthew i to hope your wrong but i just looked at Dodge City NWS and they have had only .5" of precip since late October. Im sure the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma are close to the same. For those of us who like to chase in these area we better start praying for rain soon. Personally i like chasing the dryline in these areas and without any rain soon, looks like that is not going to happen this spring very often.

 

[MatthewCarman]

What does lack of precipitation have to do with how the severe weather season will play out? Does that affect how much moisture is in the air for thunderstorms? If TX/OK/KS does not get alot of precipitation soon does that mean there severe weather season will be weak? Iowa has had alot of precipitation this Winter so would that lead to a more severe weather season? Thanks to anyone who can answer my question.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Matthew, a lot of times when the ground moisture is very dry, the dryline will be shallow and will mix out very quickly during the day. 06 is a perfect example. We were very dry around here in 06, hence all the wildfires. In the mornings, the Td would be in the upper 50's and lower 60's. At noon it would mix out and be in the 40's, therefore, storms would form to the east in better moisture. This happened day after day after day in 06. It's amazing what evapotranspiration can do to moisture values.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Thanks Jason. I understand what they are getting at now. So in that stuation the active severe weather season would be farther north and east of TX/OK/KS. Interesting.

 

[Andrew Ryan]

I was thinking about this back on the 10th during the chase day in OK. It appears the lack of rain didn't have a significant affect on the moisture return. Then again, it really wasn't a dryline event.

I'm hoping for some significant rainfall here. But that doesn't look like that's going to happen anytime soon.

 

[Adam Lucio]

It's amazing what evapotranspiration can do to moisture values.

Thus I thank farmers for irrigating their crops. I remember after the july 13th 2004 event here in IL [the infamous parsons plant day] an article by ILX mentioned evaportranspiration from crops played a role in localizing dewpoints over 70.

Take that plus a sunny day with temps in the upper 80s or 90s and bam.

Im thinking this la nina pattern will favor the ozark/TN valley jungle region again, similar to last year. Ill be glad to see this NW flow go bye bye though. At least were more zonal this week.

I need me some action.

 

[Jesse Risley]

Dr. Forbes briefly mentioned at the chaser convention that the dryness in the plains might focus the more concentrated severe weather outbreaks a bit further east this year. The dryline scenario that Jason mentioned was also discussed.

Some might remember back in 2005 that parts of the upper midwest, especially Illinois, were very dry and classified as being in a significant drought. More than one MCS weakened considerably that year when approaching the Mississippi River into the drier conditions. There were considerable differences in Td values 50-100 miles on either side of parts of the river that year as well.

 

[MatthewCarman]

I was told that in Iowa we get higher dew points because corn sweats. That and the good amount of precipitarion Iowa has and will continue to see may contribute to a good severe weather year for Iowa and surrounding areas. I am thinking unless things change and Winter returns we will have an early spring and early severe weather season. These warm up's feel good and I can't wait for Spring to arrive. Upper 50's for central Iowa today is nice

 

[Skip Talbot]

I was told that in Iowa we get higher dew points because corn sweats.

That's what we call evapotranspiration. This process allows us to exceed the dewpoints we can get from warm air advection alone. As Adam mentioned, on July 13 of '04 we had some wicked dewpoints. They were actually over 80 in parts of Illinois while the dews further south and in the Gulf remained in the low 70's.