Countdown till active severe weather

[STurner]

I am thinking active severe weather season will be starting up soon along with strong tornadoes. I am guessing that we will start seeing some major tornado outbreaks by mid/late March. Wondering what any guesses any of you might think to when active severe weather will start. I am so ready.

 

[BrianBaker]

What part of the country are you talking about? In the Plains it will likely be late March or early April, but who knows. If it is the SE then right now is climatologically one of the peaks there (i.e Super Tuesday last year).

 

[Danny Neal]

What leads you to believe that severe weather will be starting soon? Just guessing or something you see in the long range?

 

[Niccolò Ubalducci]

I'll be in USA for Chasing from 20 April to 15 May!

 

[Skip Talbot]

I'll be in USA for Chasing from 20 April to 15 May!

We'll put the kettle on under the gulf for you.

I always thought of March as the preseason, and April 1 as the first day of the full season. Of course countdowns to March 1 or April 1 are rather anticlimatic as these days are usually quiet when they finally roll around.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Seems like in traditional tornado alley it usually goes like this:

Feb - 1 chase event
Mar - 2 chase events
Apr - 3 chase events
May - chase events every 4 days or so
June - 3 chase events

Aug - 2 chase events
Sept - 1 chase event
Oct - 1 chase event

 

[Connor McCrorey]

Seems like in traditional tornado alley it usually goes like this:

Feb - 1 chase event
Mar - 2 chase events
Apr - 3 chase events
May - chase events every 4 days or so
June - 3 chase events

Aug - 2 chase events
Sept - 1 chase event
Oct - 1 chase event

This was my first year chasing, but I chased more in April than I did in May... Maybe this is just because I'm in Texas, but I feel like that April number is too low.

 

[Rick Schmidt]

Just for the record, there is no official start to the severe weather season, at least in the central plains. I have seen severe storms pop up in early February, and not much in the way of storms as late as mid to late April. The 'season', is mainly April, May and June, for the central plains, but 'May Magic' is the prime month as far as I am concerned.
Our local spotters classes usually start in late Feb., but I understand the KC area has already started theirs.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Im counting down the days till March. Usually around here we get 1 decent round of severe weather, with our peak coming in April. Last year we got robbed. May of course is when things peak and for me Ive had my best tornado days in early June.

Ive chased in every month except December and July...hard to think about not chasing in July, but around here July is derecho/MCS month and I have yet to trek as far north as ND and into Canada.

Either way...bring it on...

 

[Bob Hartig]

I think storm season is a bit like the stock market in that there are psychological thresholds. Mine is March 1. I start getting happy and hopeful right around then. Don't ask me for stats. I could point out that Dixie Alley begins an upward trend in February, gets serious in March, and peaks in April, but that ain't it. It's just that winter is on the way out, and I've hit the time where anything can happen, and it's a lot more likely to do so than in December, January, or February.

 

[Matthew Harding]

Given the lack of moisture we have had in 'Tornado Alley' since late October, I am starting to think that this year will be a bust around here (C&W KS, OK, TX Panhandles). Unless we get some good precip events in the next 6-8 weeks, then it may be a better fire season than tornado season around here.

 

[STurner]

What leads you to believe that severe weather will be starting soon? Just guessing or something you see in the long range?

I am just getting my hopes up. I just get really excited when we start getting close to the main tornado season. I have been thinking a lot about tornado events that happened on March 13, 1990, March 12, 2006 and March 1, 2007. Though I have not chased much, I get really excited about when some major outbreak is about to unfold. You guys keep me informed with nowcasts and forecasts, but please dont get my hopes up too much.

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

I won't be out for the whole season, as I plan to spend no more than 2 months at it. Money concerns. If, by chance this is a busy year, I will stick it out and be reading STORMTRACK for that latest gab and insights. Last year, I was on Iowa for 4 months; but I should have only stayed 3. Ahh; I do enjoy the sights snd smells of the Plains.


I'll be out in mid April and stay until mid or late June. Maybe more - weather pending. Sure would like to be in Texas and Oklahoma for the April stuff, and just might do so. I get to use the new gear I got. The 2 meter Ham radio, laptop stand, and maybe the CB too. Doesn't leave me much money - if any - for any new lens. I'll be grateful and thankful just to see a lot of beautiful and exciting weather.

 

[Danny Neal]

I am just getting my hopes up. I just get really excited when we start getting close to the main tornado season. I have been thinking a lot about tornado events that happened on March 13, 1990, March 12, 2006 and March 1, 2007. Though I have not chased much, I get really excited about when some major outbreak is about to unfold. You guys keep me informed with nowcasts and forecasts, but please dont get my hopes up too much.

Lol Okay. I thought you were seeing something I wasn't in the long long range I am right there with you and everyone else. Bring it on (as I sit under a lake effect snow advisory)

 

[Jason Harris]

Well, there was allegedly tornado in Texas yesterday, as well as golfball sized hail:
1950 BEAUMONT JEFFERSON TX 3009 9414 PUBLIC...RELAYED BY SHERIFFS OFFICE...REPORTS POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT HWY 105 AND MAJOR. NO REPORT OF DAMAGE. (LCH)

Also, seems like there's a building consensus that this year may resemble 2008 with the La Nina pattern:
http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/