My thoughts are, I believe March will continue to be active with longwaves and imbedded shortwaves continuing to move across the country, with fairly short 4-8 day ridging in between. At least until the models start hinting at a longer duration Omega or some other blocking type pattern it looks to continue into the second half of March. I still think areas from the lower and middle MS valley, southern and central parts of the Midwest, and the western half of the southeastern US (from around an Augusta, GA north-south line westward) have the greatest potential to be more active than normal when it comes to severe. But that's just a hunch I have.
What I am becoming increasingly worried about, as some other folks have mentioned in the weeks past, is the latter half of the spring chase season. The span of time from late May to mid June that in most years, produces explosive, relatively slow-moving isolated to scattered discrete supercells along the dryline from west KS down into the OK and TX panhandes and down towards Lubbock. The I-27 panhandle chases through the flattest, treeless non-desert territory I have seen. My fear is unless those areas can get a helluva April in terms of rain or winter precip, and soak into that parched topsoil, hot dry ridging may be more invited to park here for too long during the late spring. Or just as bad, relocate the average daily location of the dryline, even during periods of persistant favoribly upper southwest flow and western US troughing (chase weeks), well to the east while at the same time moving the average location of non-nuclear sections of the cap far to the north and northeast of these areas of southwestern tornado alley. Just my speculation of what could happen if things don't change between now and then. Maybe instead I'll need to head to the cornbelt in early May to see some dryline action? :blink:
