Cold Snap

[Scott Nelson]

Like most people, I kind of think of Spring as your real Tornado season. What's odd though is the last few years we've seemed to have a lot more events in January and February. Got me wondering if this recent nation wide cold snap would bring on more pre season tornadoes or if it would squelch any Winter 2010 events. Thoughts?

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

I think anything can and will happen. Just keep an eye on the Gulf. Where the higher dews are the severe weather can follow. As of this morning, not looking like 50+ dews are in the mix for us anytime in the next week or more. That said, we are moving out of a NW flow and more into a zonal/SW flow and that could help in the weeks to come.

Read the capping inversion thread....there is some good discussion regarding stuff like this in there.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Colder temperatures would act to suppress storm development. If this winter continues to bring on below normal temperatures, I think overall we would see less tornado events than usual. However, across the whole nation there is going to be a lot of variability. The gulf states could warm up significantly and experience tornado outbreaks while the northern plains and midwest are still buried in snow. Or the whole pattern could change and the beginning of spring could have above normal temperatures. Its impossible to say with certainty.

 

[Scott Nelson]

I was just thinking that with many of these unique cold snaps-- snow/sleet/etc can be part of the pattern. This means moisture. And once a warmer front comes back through, you could have storms in locations that aren't normally violent weather pron.

 

[Scott Nelson]

Interesting what's been happening as of late. Cold first... now storms in locations not normally associated with especially severe weather. Add that Pineapple Express moisture into the mix and January has become very busy.

 

[Jason Harris]

The cold snap, snapped in FL . .. although there were lows in the 20s and even teens in the Northern section, Melbourne, FL hit 82 recently (record) and today will hit around 82 again, and the dewpoint? currently 67. It's 65 up in Crawfordville FL where the severe action is, messy as it looks. The gulf is cranking out some moisture.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

Interesting what's been happening as of late. Cold first... now storms in locations not normally associated with especially severe weather. Add that Pineapple Express moisture into the mix and January has become very busy.

California isn't a hot bed for tornadoes, but it isn't unprecedented. The tornadoes in the gulf area are not unusual this time of year. I don't think the cold temperatures of the winter have played a part in any of that. The severe weather in the W/SW is primarily because that is a monster storm. Now if we were seeing cyclic supercells and the such in the W/SW, THEN we could start talking bizarre. All this my opinion of course.