Chasing locations that are "due" for some increased activity?

I am not trying to come off as a know it all or a jerk so please don't take this the wrong way Richard but I have to disagree and feel this is an interesting discussion.

Let's look at the significant events in the 90's that Wikipedia has listed:

1990: Plainfield tornado in north east Illinois.
1996: Tornado outbreak in central Illinois with six EF3 tornadoes.

Let's look at events since the year 2000 according to wikipedia:

2004: April 20th, many tornado reports in north east Illinois. Utica, Illinois is hit by an F2 tornado according to wikipedia killing 9 people. (was this the F4 tornado you mentioned?) Another F2 and a F3 tornado also occur in north east Illinois.
2004: July 13, a F4 tornado touches down in north central Illinois seen by many people. This is the Roanoke tornado.
2008: June 7, many tornadoes around the Chicago area including several EF2 tornadoes.
2008: January 7, A EF3 tornado hits the suburbs of Chicago knocking a train off it's tracks and a semi off the road.

Now according to my book "Significant tornadoes" by Thomas P. Gruzualis he has F2-F5 tornadoes listed as significant tornadoes. Chicago has had several significant tornadoes since the year 2000.

Now I don't know how many events have occurred in the last two decades for Illinois and I am only going by wikipedia. It seems like Illinois saw an increased amount of activity from 2004-2008 which is a lot more than the previous decade unless Wikipedia is missing events which is possible. So I don't feel the Chicago area is due for another Significant tornado and I feel it is due for decreased activity but that is just my opinion. This is an interesting discussion and I am enjoying it.
 
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I'll add another to the list for Northeastern SD, West-central MN and also the northern two tiers of counties in Iowa. Central MN south of Highway 55 is excellent chase territory with a nice gridded section road network with gravel roads (not kansas mud) and blacktop county roads. Visibility is great. I've busted horribly several times out in Western MN and as Justin said, many of the chasing 'elders' around here say some of the best storms they've ever seen were out in this area.

The MN tornado numbers for 2008 and 2009 are very deceiving as most of the tornadoes were very weak and non-photogenic.

Here's to hoping for a change in 2010!
 
Totally agree that northeast Nebraska is Wayyyyyy overdue. Mike H-that little northeast Nebr. town that took one life was "Coleridge" Nebr. It was a F-4. It's up in Knox county, I believe.
Someone mentioned northwestern Nebraska....west of Ainsworth. Actually, I've had good good luck up there near Gordon. But roads are dicey. I tend to chase later than most folks. I'll spend almost all of June out in the alley. Originally from Nebraska myself...with the state full of my relatives, I prefer to work Nebraska more than any other. I know it well.
And since probably nobody is reading this post anymore....I guess I'll go ahead and break my self-imposed StormTrack silence and say this (I've only told about 4 people total).....I took a DIRECT HIT by a tornado this past June 24th....around midnight. This was west of O'Neill Nebraska, directly west of the Holt and Rock county line. I'm somewhat embarassed by it...and damn lucky to be alive. Anyhow....'nuff said on that...for now. FYI...I'm flying into the alley this season probably the last week of May.
 
Don't mean to dampen anyone's enthusiasm, or kill the thread, but the idea of "being overdue" is also known as the "gambler's fallacy." That is - the climatological probabilities for any given region this season are bascially the same as they were last season, and the one before that, etc. There is really no such thing as being "overdue" when it comes to statistics.
 
Mike Johnston said:
That is - the climatological probabilities for any given region this season are bascially the same as they were last season, and the one before that, etc.
Click to expand...

Well, not really, because changes in the big picture weather pattern certainly impact overall odds.

But I do get what you're saying. Flipping a coin 10 times and getting 6 tails doesn't increase the odds of the next one being heads.
 
Draw a triangle from Wichita Falls,tx down to Seymour,tx and then up to Gainesville,tx. This area is way over do for an outbreak. The Red River Outbreak of !979 was 31 years ago and that's been it since! There's been lots of strong and violent tornadoes here over the past 100+ years. Including 5 town destroyers that I can think of off the top off my head. So to go 31 years without one is very strange, statistically speaking. 2010's El Nino year could be the one...
 
I s'pose you can't quantify the probabilities of your favorite "overdue" area, but it's a safe bet that wherever you choose is closer to its next Big Event than it was last year. :-)

(This bit of extremely useful information offered without the aid of even a single craft beer.)
 
Hi Matthew..... No offense taken. Yes, Illinois has had many decent tornadoes in recent years, but I am talking mainly about the immediate Chicago metropolitan area being hit by an F4 or F5 storm. Mainly the counties of Cook, DuPage, Will, Grundy, and Kane. The discussion at the DuPage seminar pertained exclusively about what would happen if a Greensburg type storm directly impacted the Chicago area. Even though Chicago has had its share of severe weather, none have been on the magnitude of the affore mentioned storm. Not to say it is going to happen soon, but if it did, the discussion was about how well the Chicago area would be prepared. Now the tornado that hit Utica did F2 damage in Utica, but if I recall ( I might be wrong ), the storm did F4 damage about a half hour before striking Utica. Somewhere I remember this storm being reported as F4 damage, somewhere southwest of the LaSalle -Peru area.
Let me add, this is a great forum! A lot of good discussions, and great reading here......
 
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Mike Johnston said:
Don't mean to dampen anyone's enthusiasm, or kill the thread, but the idea of "being overdue" is also known as the "gambler's fallacy." That is - the climatological probabilities for any given region this season are bascially the same as they were last season, and the one before that, etc. There is really no such thing as being "overdue" when it comes to statistics.
Click to expand...

Sure. Hence my quotation of "due" in the topic title.
 
Tornado that hit Utica was rated F-3 and prior to that it did F-2 damage in Putnam County. The F-3 rating at Utica was the highest rating from the tornado. No F-4 damage any where.
 
Wikipedia had the Utica tornado listed as an F2 tornado. I do not know how strong it actually was.
 
Interesting thread. I would add South-Central Ks included Harper County and other close counties. I would have expected something more after 2004 chasing year. But I'm pretty convinced that soon or later it will come back to the scene.
 
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