Chasing locations that are "due" for some increased activity?

[Scott Weberpal]

I agree with H. that northeast Nebraska into northwest Iowa has lost its luster the last half decade or so. I remember when I first got into chasing (late 90's) that northeast Nebraska was the place I wanted to move if I could after seeing so man spectacular tornado videos out of that area. I can't recall the area west of there (Bassett, Ainsworth, O'Neill) having anything significant since 2003/2004ish either.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

North-East NE is more than overdue...Some hwy 91 beasts would be ok by me!!!

 

[Danny Neal]

There were quite a few tornadoes in E. IA on April 11, 2001. There were quite a few tornadoes in W/NW IL and E. IA on May 10, 2003; in fact most of the tornadoes on May 10, 2003 were in or very near the northwest quad of Illinois.



I disagree with this statement, there are 14 total tornadoes in the NCDC Storm Events in E. IA on this day, which qualifies it as an outbreak. Sorry, Matthew is right on this one.

I digress I guess counting the same tornado 4 different times in the storm reports counts as 4 different tornadoes

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/?n=ev20060413tor Of course I like to give a hard time, although I guess our definition of an outbreak differs. Since by that only 3 storms produced a handful of tornadoes in a small area. Mini outbreak sure, but when one storm produces 10 tornadoes I am not sure we are talking about a 3/13/90 - 5/5/07 - 5/3/99 type outbreak like I was referring to.

 

[Joel Wright]

April 11, 2001 was an outbreak that occurred generally west of the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area. Nothing in far eastern Iowa/northwest Illinois.

The April 2006 event was focused mainly out near the Iowa City area, with a few weak tornadoes near Muscatine. The far eastern portion of Iowa remained fairly unscathed.

May 10, 2003 was also quiet over far eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. (I guess I should mention that when I say far eastern Iowa I'm talking about the "nose" of eastern Iowa). Southeast Iowa has seen their fair share of tornadoes.

Sure there have been a few isolated weak tornadoes over this area over the last few decades, but compared to other surrounding areas, it has been comparably quiet.

From Matt...
"I just looked at maps showing the tornado paths for Northwest Illinois since 1950. Northwest Illinois has not seen many tornadoes and very few strong tornadoes since 1950 so how do we know it is due for activity? Maybe it is normal for northwest Illinois to not see much in the way of activity for long periods at a time..."

I can't see a reason why this particular area would have a lower risk for tornadic activity compared to surrounding areas. Keep in mind that Camanche Iowa, and Albany Illinois (about 20 miles north of the Quad Cities) were destroyed by a very intense tornado that killed nearly 200 people back in 1860. Strong tornadoes in this area are certainly possible.
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=11510

Very interesting thread!

 

[MatthewCarman]

I understand what your talking about Joel. The Comanche, Iowa tornado was associated with a thunderstorm that tracked across a good part of Iowa before moving into Illinois. The Comanche tornado is a very fascinating read and the tornado was very violent. I don't remember reading about the Albany tornado. I will have to do that.

The June 3rd, 2007 Muscatine tornado was rated as an EF3 if my memory serves me right but it was short lived and one of the few tornadoes that touched down in that area that day so that may not be significant but I still consider the April 2006 event to be a big day. I guess it is a matter of oppinion on how significant the event was. There was more tornadoes reported around Iowa City on June 6th, 2006 but I don't think they did any damage.

 

[Bobby Prentice]

Let's look at the actual 10-year data

Let's compare the NSSL tornado climatology to the past 10 years (2000-2009) of tornado records from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

All (F0-F5) Tornadoes: CLIMATOLOGY (1980-1999)

All (F0-F5) Tornadoes: 2000-2009

Eyeballing the "All (F0-F5) Tornadoes" graphics indicate that the mid-south (MO, AR, wrn TN, wrn KY), deep south (LA, MS, AL, GA, SC), the western half of Kansas, and the Washington D.C vicinity have all been more active than climatology. Part of the reason may be due to the fact that the climatology graphic indicates "Tornado Days" and not total tornado numbers. However, this probably doesn't explain everything.

Meanwhile, the southern plains states of OK and TX (particularly the Red River Valley) have been less active than the 1980-1999 climatological normals.

Significant (F2-F5) Tornadoes: CLIMATOLOGY (1921-1995)

Significant (F2-F5) Tornadoes: 2000-2009

The "Significant (F2-F5) Tornadoes" graphics show the same basic pattern. The mid-south (MO, AR, wrn TN, wrn KY), the far southeast (GA, SC) the western half of Kansas, and the Washington D.C vicinity have all been more active than climatology.

Meanwhile, the southern plains states of OK and TX (particularly the Red River Valley) have been less active than the 1921-1995 climatological normals.

Violent (F4-F5) Tornadoes: CLIMATOLOGY (1921-1995)

Violent (F4-F5) Tornadoes: 2000-2009

It's harder to see meaningful patterns in the "Violent (F4-F5) Tornado" graphics because 10 years (2000-2009) probably isn't a long enough time scale. However, a total of only three violent tornadoes across Oklahoma/Texas (actually virtually none over Texas) is striking.

 

[Justin Turcotte]

Nice summary Bob. I notice a relative hole in northeast SD/extreme west central MN. Despite having reasonable close access to that area I have only had reason to chase there three times in the last six years. One tornado, one mush fest, one bust. Some of the MN chasing 'elders' suggest this area has been a hot spot in the past.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Good job Bobby and thanks for putting that together. I will be sure to read it.

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

Yeah NW Iowa is my location when I get out to my farm this Spring. We have't anything threatening in quite a while. Now that I am working with the Emergency Mgr for my county, have a Ham license, and been learning from all you folk (& *Thank You*), I may have a shot if something does come my way this year. 1893 was the last year we had a "particularly dangerous situation":
http://iagenweb.org/calhoun/story.html

 

[James Langford]

How about D/FW? Sure, there was this high risk day on 4/13/07, but other than that D/FW has barely had anything worthwhile get near the metroplex. Not that I enjoy chasing anywhere near the metroplex itself, it just seems like we're due for a good supercell or two here in North Texas.

I'm with you Connor. The DFW area has had several smaller tornadoes over the past few years, but nothing major. We haven't even had a big hailer in 5 years that I can think of. Last big hail event I remember was the storms that fired out around Possum Kingdom in 2003 and stayed together all the way through DFW.

 

[Chuck Hurley]

BTW all you saying Central IL. We haven't had any chaseable ones well except for the one that went over my house here in Springfield. I'd rather not go through that again. The worst part of it was the loss of power. Not being able to get any updates.

The Dakota's seemed to be quiet the last couple of years. Wide open area and more important I'm not living there.

 

[Jim Tang]

The area in ctrl-ern KS bounded by I-135, I-70, US 400, and the KS/MO border has been fairly lackluster for quite some time (save 5/8/03).

 

[jcooper]

I would say Central Indiana is way overdue for some tornado activity!All we have really had are some weak tornadoes caused by squall lines and a derecho or two.I think we are deff. over due for some tornadoes caused by some supercells.

 

[James Hammett]

Yankton down to Columbus Nebraska on east into nw IA a ways.

YES - I've been lured out to this area more times than I can count only to get anything but a tornado. The climatology suggests that this area has never been much for long-track tornadoes but clearly things have cooled down overall since 2000 vs the decade prior (excluded F0 in the maps):

1991-2000:

vs. 2001-2009:

 

[Richard Nelson]

At the recent DuPage County Advanced Spotter program at Wheaton College on March 6th, several people including C.O.D.s Paul Sirvatka pointed out the the Chicago area here is long overdue for a major tornado. Perhaps something on the order of the 1990 Plainfield event. Imagine if a Greensburg type storm ever hit this area! The casualties could be in the many hundreds, if not more. We've been lucky that as of recently, only weaker storms have hit us. But one of these days, I think we are going to get caught with our pants down. After Plainfield, the Multi-County Skywarn was formed, and a lot has changed because of this. There are a lot more trained spotters out there today, then there were back in 1990. The Chicago NWS forecast offices were relocated to Romeoville, and updated with modern equipment. But even today, emergency communications between the various counties still leaves something to be desired! A few years back, Utica was hit by the F4 tornado. Granted that was 70 miles to our west, but it could have as easily occured here. It is only a matter of time before something on the scale of Plainfield strikes again....... I only hope we are ready.