Chasing locations that are "due" for some increased activity?

[Mike Smith]

More people have been killed in St. Louis than in any other city in the U.S. Given their last significant tornado was 1967, I believe they are terribly overdue for a tornado.

 

[Warren Faidley]

The first place that comes to mind is the Lubbock to Midland area. This use to be a severe weather hotbed and was once listed (along with central Oklahoma), as the tornado capitals of the world. Looking at the drought maps of recent years, there has been a shift. I don't know how many here remember Ted Fujita's theories on tornado occurrence patterns (shifting every so many years) but it will be interesting to see what happens given last year's history and the current El Niño. We can only hope for VORTEX 2 that it's a busy year.

Regardless, I was talking to Joel Ewing a few days ago about this very thing... ONLY A FEW MORE WEEKS UNTIL CHASE 2010!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

W.

 

[Dave Marshall]

Not nearly as active or spectacular as what you guys generally chase, but the Ohio Valley used to be good for at least a squall line a week or so pretty much all summer long. The last 4 or 5 years have been very slow around here compared to some of the summers in the late 90's and on into 2002 or so. Last year there was a single chase day, and it was really a partial bust. We've had some unexpected supercells pop up in my county, but they were just flukes, and were really the only game in Ohio or PA all year.

'95 to '97 stands out as one of the best periods, incidentally right around a strong El Nino. Maybe this year it will perk up for the same reason.

 

[Jennifer Jackson]

I would like to see more action in western Nebraska this year. Sure would make it easier a little closer to home.

 

[Karen St John]

Michigan.

We are definitely wanting for tornadoes here in Michigan, excepting in the populous SE portions of the state.

And no EF2s going directly over my parents' house. My dad doesn't need that, again

 

[Joel Wright]

Northwest Illinois and far eastern Iowa to be sure. We sit on the eastern edge of tornado alley, and yet we haven't had a significant tornado outbreak in this area in several decades.

 

[MatthewCarman]

I have to disagree with you on that one. Several decades is a long time and I can think of a few big outbreaks in the last 30 years for that area.

April 20, 2004 a tornado outbreak occured in eastern Iowa and western and central Illinois. Part of northwest Illinois was affected by this event. Utica, Illinois is hit by a violent tornado.
April 13, 2006 20 tornadoes touched down in Iowa and I think Illinois. Iowa City is hit by an F3 tornado. I remember another damaging F2-F3 tornado that occured in eastern Iowa I think in 2007 but I don't feel like looking it up. Illinois and Michigan has had several big outbreaks in the last 30 years but northwest Illinois has not seen much action.

 

[J Holder]

Northeast KS is due for some large, longtracked tornadoes. Seems it's the only part of the state that hasn't had anything for awhile. What was it, 2003 when that EF4 went through the Bonner Springs/Northern KCK?

Topeka is way overdue for a hit. They've had a couple skip across town but nothing drop down and go through town since 1983.

 

[Adam Lucio]

I would say the Chicagoland area, but we had our fun in 2008. There has been a lull in northern IL as a whole though minus the EF3 that happened in January of all months.

I also think the northern plains are due, there hasn't been any big Dakota outbreaks in quite a few years...these setups offer great supplements for non peak season chasing, so I hope this year is a good year up there.

 

[Danny Neal]

I have to disagree with you on that one. Several decades is a long time and I can think of a few big outbreaks in the last 30 years for that area.

April 20, 2004 a tornado outbreak occured in eastern Iowa and western and central Illinois. Part of northwest Illinois was affected by this event. Utica, Illinois is hit by a violent tornado.
April 13, 2006 20 tornadoes touched down in Iowa and I think Illinois. Iowa City is hit by an F3 tornado. I remember another damaging F2-F3 tornado that occured in eastern Iowa I think in 2007 but I don't feel like looking it up. Illinois and Michigan has had several big outbreaks in the last 30 years but northwest Illinois has not seen much action.

The 4/20 outbreak was not in W or NW IL if anything it was in North-Central Illinois into N Indiana. In fact there was one tornado report in E IA and one in C IA. Hardly an outbreak over there. The majority of the tornadoes occurred E of Interstate 39 which in theory splits the northern half of the state in half. Utica is 90 miles or so southwest of Chicago.

Again April 13th, 2006 was not an outbreak.... It was a cluster of storms that produced a few tornadoes. There may be 20 SPC reports of tornadoes but if you'd read them you would know well over half of those were reports of the SAME tornado. You are naming specific tornadoes outside of an outbreak. By that logic I could say Western Oklahoma just had their outbreak for the year last Monday?

BTW - "I have to disagree with you on that one. Several decades is a long time and I can think of a few big outbreaks in the last 30 years for that area." VERSUS "Illinois and Michigan has had several big outbreaks in the last 30 years but northwest Illinois has not seen much action." ~ ! - You just contradicted yourself in telling them that area has seen its outbreaks and then saying they haven't. I don't know if it is the information you are getting or your interpretation of the information you are getting but more times than not when you post it it is flawed.
______

In spirit of this thread , St. Louis may be in a tornado lull, but 100 miles to the north in Springfield they have taken a beating the last several years. I think an area from Indianapolis to Michigan City, IN to Bloomington, IL to Bloomington, IN is more than due for a significant tornado and/or outbreak.

 

[MatthewCarman]

There was alot of tornadoes on April 13, 2006. One person reported 3 tornadoes on the ground at the same time near Muscatine. Lots of tornado damage in east central and eastern Iowa. I heard you need 9 tornadoes for it to be considered an outbreak and there was over 9 tornadoes for sure that day from multiple storms. Wikipedia has the Iowa City tornado rated as an EF2 but I thought it was an EF3 tornado. There was 12 confirmed tornadoes in eastern Iowa for the April 12, 2006 event and 6 in Illinois with another EF2 tornado according to wikipedia. That makes 18 confirmed tornadoes with that outbreak.

As for the 20th of 2004 that was mostly an outbreak in central Illinois and Indiana. I agree with you on that one and I should not have included it.

I did word that second part wrong. I do that alot and there always seems to be someone to make a point of it. I apologize for not being as good with words as you are but nobody is perfect. This has been a good discusion and I thank you for adding to it. I will go look up how many events have occured in Northwest Illinois in the last 30 years and if I find few events then I was wrong but eastern Iowa has seen it's share of tornado activity and I don't feel it is over due.

 

[MatthewCarman]

I just looked at maps showing the tornado paths for Northwest Illinois since 1950. Northwest Illinois has not seen many tornadoes and very few strong tornadoes since 1950 so how do we know it is due for activity? Maybe it is normal for northwest Illinois to not see much in the way of activity for long periods at a time. You can check this site out that has many maps of tornado paths for Illinois: http://www.isws.illinois.edu/atmos/statecli/Tornado/ilmaps.htm

Maybe eastern Iowa is seeing increased activity because those maps do not show many strong tornadoes in eastern Iowa yet we had the April 13, 2006 Iowa City EF2 and the Muscatine EF3 tornado in 2007 on June 3rd in Eastern Iowa. That is at least two strong tornadoes in one decade. How many strong tornadoes does eastern Iowa average in a decade? I could be wrong about eastern Iowa seeing increased activity though and there is also climate shifts to so one area may not be as active as it used to be or may be more active.

I wonder if America over all is seeing more activity or less activity than it used to?

 

[afischer]

I agree with northeastern KS and would add a good chunk of central KS to that. Locations around Hutchinson/McPherson and Lincoln/Salina... ENE toward Topeka and Emporia... have been in a major slump w.r.t. significant tornado events the last 10+ years.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Yankton down to Columbus Nebraska on east into nw IA a ways. Right where I live and north and I sure as hell haven't seen a tornado there. It is damn hard to even come up with anything I've missed out on as far as tornadoes in that area since starting in 1999. Like the crazy farmer tornado of June 1998 near Columbus used everything up. I can think of one night tornado up there that killed someone like June 23, 2003 or so. That is it. I guess the Hagar or something like that little tornado happened in 2004 somewhere in ne NE(on Tim Samaras' dvd). It's bad when the area is as big as it is and I can't think of much of anything there. West of the June 11, 2004 Webb IA tornadoes and over to about that n-s line from Yankton to Columbus. Sad sad area for tornadoes. Hell I've had very little luck for tornadoes in all of eastern NE. Everything is always nc to sc NE.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Northwest Illinois and far eastern Iowa to be sure. We sit on the eastern edge of tornado alley, and yet we haven't had a significant tornado outbreak in this area in several decades.

There were quite a few tornadoes in E. IA on April 11, 2001. There were quite a few tornadoes in W/NW IL and E. IA on May 10, 2003; in fact most of the tornadoes on May 10, 2003 were in or very near the northwest quad of Illinois.

Again April 13th, 2006 was not an outbreak.... It was a cluster of storms that produced a few tornadoes. There may be 20 SPC reports of tornadoes but if you'd read them you would know well over half of those were reports of the SAME tornado. You are naming specific tornadoes outside of an outbreak. By that logic I could say Western Oklahoma just had their outbreak for the year last Monday?

I disagree with this statement, there are 14 total tornadoes in the NCDC Storm Events in E. IA on this day, which qualifies it as an outbreak. Sorry, Matthew is right on this one.