Chasing locations that are "due" for some increased activity?

[Derek Weston]

Say... locations that've been "slow" the past half decade.

Big one that sticks out to me is the NW Iowa/E SD/SW Minnesota area. Good terrain but for the Missouri River... but nothing significant, it seems, for a while now.

On the other side of things... Missouri gets way more than its fair share of action, anymore, it seems.

Where would you enjoy seeing some increased activity?

 

[Skip Talbot]

Central Illinois has been fairly quite the past couple of years, at least compared to 2003 and 2004. The few setups we had in '09 didn't produce much in the way of chaseable tornadoes, and in '08 the only one I squeeked out of Illinois was a hard to catch debris cloud under a massive HP on May 30. I think this area is due although many of our tornadoes come in April on warm front setups, and this season is off to a cool start. If we don't warm up soon, we might be sitting out another year.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Texas panhandle is due this year. Hasn't been much there since 2007.

 

[Jonathan Behle]

Its not known as a chase location but the St.Louis area seems way overdue to me and in general Southwestern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandles seem due.

 

[Chris Heater]

I have to agree with Skip...its been pretty quiet in central Illinois lately. What there has been hasn't been big or not very chaseable. Our time is due I think

 

[Jason Boggs]

Texas panhandle is due this year. Hasn't been much there since 2007.

I agree...we are way over due for a few tornadoes around here, that's for sure!

 

[MatthewCarman]

How do we know if an area is due for increased activity? Are you guys talking about big tornado outbreaks or just tornadoes in general? I remember hearing Texas having a record year for tornadoes in this decade but I don't remember the year. I could be wrong.

As for St. Louis it has been affcted by many tornadoes in the past. The last one was 1967 but that makes me wonder. It seems like our climate changes every year and maybe St. Louis is not in a good place anymore to see tornadoes? Based on the dates below St. Louis should have a violent tornado every 5-30 years but has seen none in the last 43 years that I know of. If I am wrong can someone please post some dates?

Here is dates for past tornadoes for St. Louis that were damaging-violent tornadoes:

1871
1890
1896
1904
1927
1959
1967

 

[Jason Foster]

Yup, I've seen a bit of folks post here and there about the panhandle being rather light on activity for the last number of years. However, I'm wondering about areas south of I-20. While not statistically a common area either, but seems light on the stats and in the year that we may see a cooler GOM, might see that the 'due' part is in that area of Texas.

Of course statistics don't determine the weather, only factors that may or may not be unique to any one day or season, etc.

 

[Chuck Robertson]

Texas panhandle is due this year. Hasn't been much there since 2007.

Okay, the Texas Panhandle has not seem MUCH since 2007, but that's not say this area has not seen anything. Last year saw several events:

Apr 26, 2009 tornadoes near Roll, OK. Yes that was in Oklahoma, but this storm started in the Eastern Texas Panhandle.

Next was the tornadoes east of Plainview and near Cedar Hill on Apr 29th, 2009. Carson County also saw two tornadoes that day.

May 15th last year was nuts around here in Roberts County with a beastly tornadic supercell that moved south, just east of Pampa. I was fortunate enough to see several tornadoes with that storm, one of which got fairly sizable.

After that, there were several other events worth mentioning as well.

I have to disagree that the Texas Panhandle has been quiet since 2007. The really quiet years were those just prior to 2007. Things seem to be picking up somewhat since then.

 

[Dean Baron]

Minnesota. Nothing in 2008 or 2009 in March or April. We did have a setup in 2007 but it was a bust and major letdown. Before that I don't remember, but 3+ years with nothing in the early season. The stats don't tell a very good story the last couple year for Minnesota. 2008 and 2009 were near average or above average (I think '08 was a bit above) for tornadoes. But very few of those tornadoes were viewable or photogenic. Espcially in 2009 it seemed like the only storms that produced tornadoes were not themselves very photogenic (6/21, 7/14, 8/19). Same with 2008, a lot of HP beasts.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

I would also add my vote for SW OK. Also, it seems that the TX panhandle hasn't done much since 2007 like previously mentioned.

 

[Brett Roberts]

I'm sure most everyone in the Norman/OKC area can vouch for SW OK. Or, more generally, all of OK west of I-35 except the extreme northwest corner. If you ignore the 2007-05-04 Arnett, 2007-05-05 Sweetwater, 2008-05-23 Ft. Supply, and 2009-04-26 Roll events -- all of which were within 20-30 mi. of the TX or KS border and only featured a lone tornadic supercell -- pretty much the entirety of W OK is in a long-standing drought of chaseable daylight tornadoes. Just off the top of my head, it seems you'd have to go all the way back to October 9, 2001, to find a truly solid tornado day in the western half of OK. The terrain and visibility down around Altus, Frederick, and Hollis is particularly good, and I don't think that area has seen a standout chase day for at least a decade.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

How about D/FW? Sure, there was this high risk day on 4/13/07, but other than that D/FW has barely had anything worthwhile get near the metroplex. Not that I enjoy chasing anywhere near the metroplex itself, it just seems like we're due for a good supercell or two here in North Texas.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I completely agree southwest OK has been in a tornado lull. In fact I have yet to see a tornado down there since I started chasing. The closest tornado I have seen to southwest OK was on May 24, 2002 just outside Vernon, TX and that was a brief multi-vortex right as the storm crapped on itself.

Tulsa, OK is also way overdue for a significant tornado. The infamous "Catoosa Tornado" of April 23, 1993 is the last damaging tornado to strike the greater Tulsa metro. My fear as a chaser is when Tulsa does get hit, I will be busting on a crap storm somewhere else.

 

[Rob H]

But very few of those tornadoes were viewable or photogenic. Espcially in 2009 it seemed like the only storms that produced tornadoes were not themselves very photogenic (6/21, 7/14, 8/19). Same with 2008, a lot of HP beasts.

Living in Minnesota, and hoping to get some local experience for the last few years before an extended excursion out in the Great Plains, I'd have to agree with Dean - there was been very little in the way of MN storms to get my feet wet with. I was about 1 mile from the 8/19 surprise tornado and that people were able to get photos of it impresses me.