nickgrillo
EF5
I was in the Chaser Chat a few hours ago, and someone told me what the date was. Needless to say, my couple years of inactivity certainly showed on this one. LOL. At any rate, since I now know the date, I'm staying out of this one... 
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Chase Case #8
- Thread starter Marc Austin
- Start date
Paul Austin
12z
12z:
After spending the better part of yesterday chasing high-speed soup late into the evening in AR, I had trouble getting going this morning. But I’ve decided to head up to Bowling Green, KY from my starting point of Jackson, TN. This will take me just long enough to get there, get an update, and realize I made a mistake.
I like the energy and diffluence aloft up north, and there is a nice plume of moisture feeding up through IN northward. The dry air and clearing west of the trough is appealing as well. I’m not a big fan of the veering upper level winds near the low center, but the surface winds back a little over MI and down into OH. Storms in this area will likely race northward at high speeds. Looking at the soundings for the entire Midwest (well, only the ones I cared to take the time to look up), things look largely uncapped with somewhat low lapse rates. CAPE development would seem to require only a little surface heating, but with a non-existent cap, things could get going early and very widespread. There is plenty of lift in place, so a line of severe storms with very strong straight-line winds would be quite possible across much of the area.
Low cloudiness and modest capping is a concern south of the MDT outlook area, but Jackson, MS has a decent-looking sounding, considering the current sfc temps and proximity to deep moisture. Winds further south have less upper air energy to work with but less of a veering upper wind profile.
I guess my reasoning would be to hope for a tail end type cell in the richer moisture. I’d also like to position so that I can adjust either north or south. I would prefer a more northern target, considering Dixie Alley chase terrain, but I’m open to whatever develops. I’m already way out of position for anything up toward MI/Great Lakes area.
Edit: With the nice clearing to the south, I wouldn't rule out an area near the MO/IA border for late afternoon low-topped action. These neg-tilt systems with screaming upper levels make for an interesting case. Again, this area is way out of play for me.
Edit2: Ha, ha. I thought the original 0z outlook was the Day 1 for the previous day. This explains my first paragraph above. Either way, the outlook played very little part in my positioning decision.
12z:
After spending the better part of yesterday chasing high-speed soup late into the evening in AR, I had trouble getting going this morning. But I’ve decided to head up to Bowling Green, KY from my starting point of Jackson, TN. This will take me just long enough to get there, get an update, and realize I made a mistake.
I like the energy and diffluence aloft up north, and there is a nice plume of moisture feeding up through IN northward. The dry air and clearing west of the trough is appealing as well. I’m not a big fan of the veering upper level winds near the low center, but the surface winds back a little over MI and down into OH. Storms in this area will likely race northward at high speeds. Looking at the soundings for the entire Midwest (well, only the ones I cared to take the time to look up), things look largely uncapped with somewhat low lapse rates. CAPE development would seem to require only a little surface heating, but with a non-existent cap, things could get going early and very widespread. There is plenty of lift in place, so a line of severe storms with very strong straight-line winds would be quite possible across much of the area.
Low cloudiness and modest capping is a concern south of the MDT outlook area, but Jackson, MS has a decent-looking sounding, considering the current sfc temps and proximity to deep moisture. Winds further south have less upper air energy to work with but less of a veering upper wind profile.
I guess my reasoning would be to hope for a tail end type cell in the richer moisture. I’d also like to position so that I can adjust either north or south. I would prefer a more northern target, considering Dixie Alley chase terrain, but I’m open to whatever develops. I’m already way out of position for anything up toward MI/Great Lakes area.
Edit: With the nice clearing to the south, I wouldn't rule out an area near the MO/IA border for late afternoon low-topped action. These neg-tilt systems with screaming upper levels make for an interesting case. Again, this area is way out of play for me.
Edit2: Ha, ha. I thought the original 0z outlook was the Day 1 for the previous day. This explains my first paragraph above. Either way, the outlook played very little part in my positioning decision.
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Paul Austin
LOL, not a bad bet - it seems that town gets hit about every other year. If I were going to use that line of reasoning, I'd just go back to sleep and wake up for a later show in Jackson, TN. That town seems to be a target about 2 out of every 3 years, in my estimation.
Paul Austin
15z
15z:
I’m liking my position – clearing skies to the west, bubbling cu all around me, and nice towers popping up through the lower cloud field with precip down in MS heading NE toward me. I can't be certain of the heights of the various cloud layers streaking across the sat image, but there appears to be some decent directional shear evident across this general area from AR across TN/KY. Mostly, I’m happy with options to move N into IN, S back down into TN, SW, or NW with time to make a decent storm that I am certain will occur somewhere within this general area.
15z:
I’m liking my position – clearing skies to the west, bubbling cu all around me, and nice towers popping up through the lower cloud field with precip down in MS heading NE toward me. I can't be certain of the heights of the various cloud layers streaking across the sat image, but there appears to be some decent directional shear evident across this general area from AR across TN/KY. Mostly, I’m happy with options to move N into IN, S back down into TN, SW, or NW with time to make a decent storm that I am certain will occur somewhere within this general area.
Matt Gingery
Well we debated it, and after the 15z update our thinking is that we will see convection fire across SE Missouri and push into S. Illinois by 18z. We will hang out in Cape Girardeau until initiation pops, and at that point we will decide on whether we need to head into Illinois.
OK now that I have seen the "real" morning outlook, I would prefer to start in Champaign, Illinois as they are beginning to see some clearing and the upper-level system appears to be on track to approach the Champaign-Lafayette, IN area by initiation time.
Corey Sloan
EF1
Carbondale, IL still for me....waiting on data.
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Buddy W Bradley
Hmmmmmm I guess I am not really a part of this chase. My name and location isnt listed on the wayfaring map. 
Marc Austin
EF4
Hmmmmmm I guess I am not really a part of this chase. My name and location isnt listed on the wayfaring map.
Sorry, I guess I accidentally overlooked you. you've been added now.
Buddy W Bradley
I am gonna hang tight in TERRE HAUTE IN until the 18z data becomes available.
Marc Austin
EF4
18Z Update
Alright, you've eaten lunch and you're ready to do some chasing. Here is the long awaited 18Z update.
18Z Observations:
Surface Observations:
Midwest
Southern Miss. Valley
Great Lakes
Satellite Imagery:
Midwest
National
Radar Imagery:
Great Lakes
Southern Miss. Valley
Midwest
Alright, you've eaten lunch and you're ready to do some chasing. Here is the long awaited 18Z update.
18Z Observations:
Surface Observations:
Midwest
Southern Miss. Valley
Great Lakes
Satellite Imagery:
Midwest
National
Radar Imagery:
Great Lakes
Southern Miss. Valley
Midwest
Jim Tang
EF3
Bleh. I was going to post a target, but after seeing the 18Z data, I think I know the date already.
Verne Carlson
EF5
76/70, backed winds and the satellite image makes me happy to be in Alabama. I'm going to stay put where I am in Enterprise, AL.
Michael O'Keeffe
Going to jump on the developing cell southeast of Paducah. Let the show begin!
Scott Weberpal
EF5
Looks like there's a boy starting to pop just south of Paducah, so I'll head down I-24 take a look at it and decide if it's my storm for the day. Otherwise given that data I'm going to stay in the western Kentucky area and possibly wait for more fruitful convection a bit later.
EDIT: Just looked at Google topo map and is appears I'm better off heading east to the area between Providence and Owensboro where it is much flatter than the area just east of Paducah. The storms will be moving northeast at a good clip so I'll blast that way and wait for the storm to come to me. No use jumping on the storm early and risking losing it due to fast motion.
EDIT: Just looked at Google topo map and is appears I'm better off heading east to the area between Providence and Owensboro where it is much flatter than the area just east of Paducah. The storms will be moving northeast at a good clip so I'll blast that way and wait for the storm to come to me. No use jumping on the storm early and risking losing it due to fast motion.
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