Chase Case #8

[Marc Austin]

I only had to look at the 500mb chart - I don't see any area that I would honestly chase on this one. Marc is this a florida setup??

Well, I don't want to spoil it, but I will tell you that it's not a FL setup. Just join in for fun, even if you prob wouldn't chase this in reality!

Edit: I can already tell this is going to be a difficult case. Things should become more clear with the 18Z update. I won't display anymore convective outlooks though. I want it to be a challenge. I have updated 12Z obs to include a sounding from Little Rock, AR. I hope everyone is having fun! I might go ahead and post 18Z obs later tonight, but i want to give everyone a chance to get involved from the start.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Well, I don't want to spoil it, but I will tell you that it's not a FL setup. Just join in for fun, even if you prob wouldn't chase this in reality!

Ok ok, my target: Enterprise, AL

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I won't be chasing this one due to UL winds and lack of chaseable terrain. If I were to target, it would likely be SE Kansas, in the hopes that something may get started before dark in a chaseable area. But this is looking like a fast-moving outbreak scenario and therefore not for this chaser.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Editing that last post a bit - - - I will say that due to proximity to home, I will consider a change based on 18z if it looks like the system slows and backs to the west, or that initiation may occur in an area of slower 500mb winds. So, I'll keep the afternoon open just in case.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

At this point I would want to be sitting in Paducah, KY. I have a feeling I'll need to head a bit south later, possibly into TN, but Paducah seems to be an area which will be under favored upper divergence later in the day. Nice upper diffluence over the region currently, but the better divergence is still to the southwest. I could see a tornado or two further north in IL but there is some dry air coming in from the west...maybe Ohio/Michigan later if they can clear out? Otherwise I see tornadoes from roughly Kentucky southward along the sfc trof rapidly advancing eastward.

12z starting point, Paducah, KY. May not be the most ideal starting point for chasing, but the terrain isn't too terrible in Western KY.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Good grief. I think Mother Nature has handed me a gift. This looks to me like a classic Great Lakes outbreak scenario. I've just been researching the 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak, and that low in western Iowa looks like the quintessence.

I'm parking my butt right here at home in Caledonia, MI, and waiting for the low to lift into Wisconsin. Good moisture ridge, good shear, backing winds, cold 700 mb temps--crappy CAPE, but that'll improve as the clear slot to my southwest moves in...yep, think I'll just hunker down here. I'll keep my eyes on Indiana and maybe Illinois, but I think Michigan stands a better chance of seeing some action than the SPC shows.

 

[Marc Austin]

12Z Convective Outlook

Ok ok... I can see that this one is particularly difficult, so I've decided to go ahead and post the 12Z convective outlook. You would have had access to it anyway. I don't want this to be too hard.

12Z Convective Outlook

Hopefully this helps a little!

 

[Adam Lucio]

A little I know the date now. A very interesting day for me and my partners. I will just sit back and watch everyone else.

 

[Andrew Revering]

I guess I'm going to get in the car and start driving NE and see where I end up for the next update. Heading into Northeast Iowa for the time being.

 

[Darren Addy]

Wow. I'd don't think I'd really be chasing this in real life. For one thing storm motion/speeds look to be nearly unchasable. Give me the classic "Tornado Alley" setups anytime. However, as an exercise, this is fun. If somebody wants to critique my thinking here, feel free (it's how I learn):

Where I have the most difficult time is figuring out where the low is going to TRACK from the information we are given. In "real life" i'd lean on the models to try to get that picture. Without being able to "fast forward" 8-12hrs I could be way off. But I guess I'm looking at the wind fields for decent twist going up and following the moisture while trying to stay in the promising area of any triple-point.

My initial guess for all of that would be Indianapolis, IN. so I suppose I'll transport myself there to await further data. I'm trying not to be overly influenced by either the SPC's hatch area or sounding locations provided - but both of those would seem to indicate that I'm way off so I'm not the picture of confidence.

EDIT: When my post above was written I somehow missed the 12Z Outlook post. I just looked at it now (after I saw somebody downthread refer to it) and see that my target is in the dead center of the new moderate risk. (Nobody will probably believe me, but I'm really amazed!). On the downside, picking a target in the center of the SPC's target is like having your Fantasy Football first round draft pick selected for the cover of Madden NFL: Jinxed!

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Staying put in Paducah on the southern end of the MDT risk. Seems like these type of setups end up with linear messiness with embedded tornadoes to the north, and nice isolated sups to the south. South end of the MDT will have better vertical wind shear and likely better instability. Time to take a scenic drive around Western KY while waiting for 18z data

 

[Brian Stertz]

I am going to hang deep in the warm sector and select Greenville MS as my starting pt. I likely will end up east of here but feel this may be a sweet spot for early afternoon.

 

[Andrew Revering]

Where I have the most difficult time is figuring out where the low is going to TRACK from the information we are given.

Generally speaking the low should follow the 500mb height contours... and usually about 600 miles in a 24 hour period, so 300 miles from 12z to chase time.... very general but it gives you something to start with.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Staying home ... I might also be inclined to chase the northern end in the eastern Iowa vicinity, if anywhere, in the hopes of somewhat manageable storm motions and easier terrain. But this is one of those situations I avoid every year ... you might get lucky and intercept a tornado, but chances are you are going to be working really really hard for not a lot of payoff.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

... you might get lucky and intercept a tornado, but chances are you are going to be working really really hard for not a lot of payoff.

Isn't that what chasing is all about? If it was 'easy' I'd get bored doing it after a year or two