Chase Case #8

I was in Padaucah before and after have seen 18Z and 21Z data I decided to move east. I'm on the way to Owensboro now, and I'm starting to see a very dark sky to the east. I hope it will remain isolated.
I saw a very nice back flow in northeastern MS on the border with TN and AL: I expect an explosive convective development in those zones. If my KY cell had not sparked off so early, I would have headed to northwest Alabama on the border with MS and TN
 
Looks like the wave/front should get after it as it moves towards the MS River Valley. Looks like an evening chase. Like the T-Td spreads and backed sfc winds from I-55 eastward in MS. I am going to wait here at Winona MS on I-55 for some signs on where to move once initiation happens in about an hour or two. Red box should be up by now...now back to bed in real world LOL
 
Blasting east towards Owensboro to intercept that cluster of supercells.
 
Well, I thought I was going to visit some friends in Hopkinsville, but the lure of the nice cell going up to the NW was too much to resist. Upon reaching Hopkinsville, I quickly turned N towards Owensboro, KY, and I'm now closing on what appears for now to be a dominant storm in a ripe environment. Now the problem is road network and the river. I wish I could see the cell animated. Is it moving right of the mean flow or flying parallel to it? And will this cell even produce. I figure I can give this cell some time to do something and still position for action developing further west and south. We'll just have to see. I keeping my eyes open towards the west for any new development while sampling this cell.
 
That's quite a swarm coming across Lake Michigan. If those storms are doing that well over the waters, they could really take off when they move inland. My impulse is to rocket north, but my gut is telling me to exercise a little restraint. The southernmost cell looks to move north of Grand Rapids, and I kinda wish I'd just stayed in Caledonia and caught US 131 north. But being as I'm in Grand Ledge, the storms are still over 100 miles away. And while the storms are firing to the north, I have a hunch they'll expand to the south. So I think I'm going to head up US 127 to Ithaca, keeping an eye on the radar. There are plenty of good E-W highways along the way, so I can adjust my course as necessary, and even turn around and make good time heading south. No question whether I'll get a storm, just a matter of which one. It might be one that hasn't formed yet. In any event, I don't mind being farther east; Michigan storms love this side of the state.
 
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Ok. I am sitting in Terre Haute IN. Just finished a Whopper, Lg Fry and Large DP. Picked up a pack of smokes and am ready to analize todays chase and get the gears in motion. Looks like storm speeds are gonna be between 45 and 55 mph to NE. I like the convection starting to develop in SE MO and W IL. These storms appear to have fired along a dryline convergence zone. They have signs of becoming individual supercells as they race towards my area. I am thinking my play for the day is gonna be along Hwy 150 between Terre Haute and Vincennes. I am ready to get down to business! !
 
Given storm motions north of me, no need to try and race off to KY or IN as that would be a completely hopeless cause. Going to sit tight in Corinth MS with the thought that convection will fire to my SW and move towards me as it matures. Have some decent road options (at least from what I can tell from streets & trips) so will be patient and monitor conditions.
 
As I have been heading north for only an hour or so-I think I will head to 70 and over to Sedalia,Mo and sit
 
It's 21Z in Diamondale, MI. (Do you know where your chasers are?) I don't want to chase clear air and the trees any farther north. But there's one interesting tower a bit north of me showing vertical development on satellite. I'm watching it for a little while and if it goes, I will try to intercept in the Owasso/Flint area. If it poops I'll relocate a bit south to the junction of I-69 and I-94 at Marshall, MI. But basically I'm where I'm gonna be to try and grab onto a storm flying up from the southwest.
 
I don't think I have time to move a great deal if I wanted to, but I'm disappointed that the backed winds are no longer in my area. (I'll learn eventually). I'm staying in Vincennes, IN for the time being. With the storm motions, I like the N/S options and the NE route back towards Indianapolis - in the event that something is coming straight at me.
 
Well, after looking at radar around 21z, we have managed to cross back into Missouri and we are on the North side of Cape Girardeau. We can see the anvil tops to our west aloft and rapidly pushing to the NE. We will wait a bit and begin to head north of Cape Girardeau and intercept along I-55 from Cape to S. St Louis suburbs. This is our play of the day, extreme eastern central Missouri.
 
Final Results

Here are the final results from October 18, 2007. This might be a little surprising. Those of you who chased in Michigan and Kentucky were right on! Other than that, tornado reports were somewhat isolated. Mississippi did see a couple of tornado reports, but not as many as some of you thought they might.

23Z Radar Images:
Great Lakes
Middle Miss. Valley
Northern Gulf Coast

23Z Satellite Image:
Middle Miss. Valley

SPC Storm Reports:
National

Many of you did well on this case. It was a very tricky late season one!
 
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