Chase Case #8

[Buddy W Bradley]

I have pretty much committed to playing W. Indiana area around Terre Haute IN. (80/65) Not looking too bad for shortly after lunch. I noticed a developing cumulus deck across c. IL. Hope it will get its act together as it moves east over the next 3-4 hours. I also noticed that these clouds could be developing along a dryline as dewpoints drop off to the 40's and 50's behind this area. I just wish my winds were backed a little more as well. Oh well.... let the show begin!

 

[Matt Gingery]

Well we have been monitoring the situation across the Mo. Kentucky and Tenn borders. We Just headed a bit south out of Carbondale, and are now just to the east of Cape Girardeau and heading south into Kentucky to intercept some towers we spotted about 60 miles south. They haven't matured yet, and they are forming in the gravity wave aloft out ahead of the frontal boundary. I am expecting cells to explode from St. Louis down to Little Rock by 20z. My hopes are that these cells near Paducha will quickly become severe and produce. We are in the right spot and have the option to head south into Tennesse and Mississippi to catch more action as it back builds south. We will catch something on this, even if it is just some fantastic storm structure.

Great Job on the case Marc, and thank you so much for the effort. I request that we get a chase case # 9.

 

[David Wolfson]

As I suspected when I decided to lunch in Anderson, IN, this system is just screaming northeast. My data connection resumed at precisely 18Z, and I was at the on-ramp of northbound I-69 ready to go. Any storms will be moving northeast at something like 50 kts., so I don't want to be west of them Next stop, the junction of I-69 with I-90 near the MI border for data before 20Z. Unless anything worth backtracking catches my attention, I will punch my 21Z ticket at Diamondale, MI, on the southwest side of Lansing. Bye, gotta go -- no Kentucky for me.... Definitely virtual chase territory!

 

[Paul Austin]

18z

I love the cluster of bubbling towers to my west...a little too far to my west attm. So I think I will drive over to Hopkinsville, KY and say a quick hello to some of my good friends who moved there from Gainesville. I'll say hello for you, Marc It'll be a very brief stop as I'm in full-on chase mode. I'll have to keep tabs on the situation en route (about 1.5 hrs drive) and watch to see if a nice cell develops from this cluster. If so, I'll have to race northward towards Evanville,IN but the Parkway gives me a nice road option, and I can still get south toward Nashville, should this appear to be a better play. Things look pretty ripe to explode with a nice heat/moisture axis right along the Mississippi River from NE AR torward S IN. I might be a little far east, but I'd rather not get caught behind on this day. I'd like to see winds a little less veered at the surface, but with ample speed sheer, I think we could get some sups, especially near the southern end of any line of cells that develops. I'm excited to chase in KY for now. It's a new chase state for me.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Looking over 18z data I find some things I like, and I find some things I don't like. I still don't like to see all of the convection associated with the WAA coming out of the Gulf. It appears convergence may be increasing over western and central Mississippi and additional storms may develop on the western fringe of the WAA. Drier air appears to be working into western LA and southwest AR per latest surface plot, and winds at Jackson, MS have begun to veer to the southwest, while Meridian, MS (90 miles east) continues to have a southerly wind component. I expect new storms to fire to my southwest over western and central MS within the next couple of hours.

Speed shear is not as impressive down here as it is further north, however there apears to be exceptional veering with height. Instability appears to be building as breaks in the clouds in central and western MS have allowed surface temps to rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This should create low LCL heights, and may promote a very bouyant surface parcel needed for tornadogenesis.

With a cu field developing to my southwest and west I am going to drop south a little bit to Westpoint, MS near the junction of HWY 25/45 and WHY 50. There appears to be a decent county road network in this area and a decent northeast option into western AL. I will wait for convection to fire and go for the dominant storm, especially one that deviates to the right of the mean storm flow.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I like what I'm seeing, and I'm finally ready to move. I'm boogeying east to Grand Ledge, MI, and will play my cards from there. Can't tell whether that's the beginnings of a wee little cell to my southwest along the lakeshore near Bridgeman, but no matter. If it is, it'll come to me, but it'll probably be having some competition soon.

Dave, nice to have a little company up here in the northwoods! If things play out well here, I'll meet you later for a steak and a brew.

 

[David Wolfson]

Hi, Bob! You've got a deal, although I hope something grabs me on the way further south. This is a looooong way from home, even for a virtual chase.

 

[Corey Sloan]

READJUSTED TARGET: Evansville, IN.

EDIT:I like the temps and the Dp's appear to be rising or "nosing" into southern IN...dryline is well off to the west with decent Dp contrasts post dryline passage...storm motion looks to be atrocious, IMO, so I want to try to be well ahead of the storms in hopes of being able to intercept the cells as they move off to the NE.....

 

[Brian Stertz]

I think I am going to venture a little east towards Greenwood MS and maybe on closer to I-55 if I am seeing some better development. I just want to make sure I can get n-s fast if I need to this afternoon. Instability looking good and shear is fairly good. Just hope I can get some serious development on the inbound wave and front.

 

[Joe Karel]

I think I'm gonna head east from Springfield IL to hover somewhere south of champaign IL and wait and see if anything nearby pops up. I wouldn't want to go to much farther from home so we'll see what happens..

 

[Dennis Dennison]

This was a very good chase case-very hard for me to read-I have decided to head back to Kenesaw,Ne and give up as I am too far from any action to reach it in time. I think it now looks like an Alabama deal--so I feel I missed it completely and my ideas for this were all wrong--cant wait to see the actual results of the day

thanks for a difficult one to figure out

 

[John Farley]

This isn't doing much for me, sitting in Vandalia, IL, looking at the 18Z data. The surface wind is veering more, and the boundaries look prety diffuse. However, I have driven over here now, and I do notice a dry slot on the Satellite pic through MO and west-central IL, with a band of some agitated cumulus just ahead of it. So I will sit here, be ready to move east if necessary, and maybe I will see a thunderstorm. But IMHO central/southern IL has bust written all over it right now, and I wish I were somewhere in Wisconsin or Michigan. But I am not, so I will sit here in Vandalia and wait to see what happens.

 

[Patrick Martin]

I'm moving south on hwy 45 from Jackson TN to Corinth MS. Should be there in a little over an hour. I am feeling good about the cu field that has developed and although directional sheer is not good given veering winds, speed sheer should be sufficient to get a storm or 2 to rotate. Storm motions should be real quick, so will wait for now in the northeast corner of MS and let development come to me, and my position will give me the ability to shift east if need be.

 

[Marc Austin]

21Z Update

Alright, now it's crunch time, 21Z. Any last minute moving around has to take place as storms will soon initiate. I will post results from this case on Friday night, so you should have time to position yourselves throughout the day tomorrow. Good luck everyone and thanks for playing along in a less-than-ideal case.

21Z Observations:

Surface Observations:
Great Lakes
Central Gulf Coast
Central Miss. Valley

Satellite Imagery:
Central Miss. Valley
National

Radar Imagery:
Central Gulf Coast
Great Lakes
Central Miss. Valley

 

[Joe Karel]

In my last post I said I was gonna hang out just south of chapaign IL. After seeing the radar I think I'm going to head south on 57 towards Effingham IL and pick up on the strongest cell. I probably should have moved more east earlier but I'll take what I can get and head home happy.