Charles Kuster
EF4
Based on the 18Z data, I will move south towards Spirit Lake, Iowa.
Chase Case #3
- Thread starter Andrew Revering
- Start date
I've never chased in MN before, so the first time I'll go it'll have to be a really obvious day--which this one ain't. I'm tempted to head to Onawa or SUX, but I can't really pull the trigger.
Early in this exercise, I liked Holton, KS but I have absolutely no confidence in my forecast this time. I don't see any two parameters lining up at the same time.
Altus looks good if I were south.
Early in this exercise, I liked Holton, KS but I have absolutely no confidence in my forecast this time. I don't see any two parameters lining up at the same time.
Altus looks good if I were south.
Doug Mitchell
EF2
Ick, I don't like this at all. I'm going to head south on 169 to Fort Dodge, IA and play the WF.
Sean McMullen
EF0
If this is the day I think it is I'm hanging out in Stratford, IA and Woodward, IA. In fact I was hanging out in Stratford, IA that day.
Dean Baron
Supporter
I think i may keep heading down 169 in to Iowa, maybe meet up and bs for a while with Josh. Like everyone else I dont see one area that really sticks out. hopefully later data will make it a little more obvious.
Marc Austin
EF4
Well, I'm coming into this one somewhat late in the game, so I suppose I have an unfair advantage, but my initial target was Omaha, NE area. After the most recent update, I would most likely head east on I80 into IA toward the warm front and keep my eye out for some convection within the warmsector, second guessing myself the whole way.
Andrew Revering
EF3
I don't think I have any model data I'm going to be posting anymore, the rest will be observations, radar, satellite.
I will say that the model data on the first post of this thread is actually the RUC analysis valid when "the ***t hits the fan" (or not).
Paul Austin
15z update
I was busy outdoors all day, so this is a response to the 15z update. I haven't read beyond that point yet.
I'm gonna continue to hang out around Clinton, OK, hoping the cloud deck breaks and we get some sun to weaken the cap. I'm still favoring the dryline setup, but I could see this turn into a giant bust.
I was busy outdoors all day, so this is a response to the 15z update. I haven't read beyond that point yet.
I'm gonna continue to hang out around Clinton, OK, hoping the cloud deck breaks and we get some sun to weaken the cap. I'm still favoring the dryline setup, but I could see this turn into a giant bust.
Paul Austin
18z update
Upon viewing the 18z data, I'm gonna hurry up and wait a little while longer. Cloud cover is burning off, dry line is developing, I can drift N or race S for adjustments. I would like to see surface winds backed a little and a more veered vertical wind profile, but I'm here now, so I'll sleep in the bed I made. I do think the juice will erode the cap and some nice storms will develop, but how soon before dark?
Edit: On second thought, it's already after 3pm CDT. If I'm gonna do much moving, it'll have to be soon. I think I'll drive the 1 hour 18 min drive down to Snyder, OK. Skies are a little more clear further south and I'll have more of a play on the existing dry line. CAPE has been progged to be much higher in TX by 0z as well. If skies continue to clear, I might head a little further south toward Electra, TX.
Edit: OK, I did this at about 4am, so sleep depravity and info overload led me to the conclusion that 18z is 3pm (just like a real chase scenario, after days in hotels with late nights and early mornings, LOL)- correction 1pm, but I'll stick to my original adjustment toward Electra, TX.
Upon viewing the 18z data, I'm gonna hurry up and wait a little while longer. Cloud cover is burning off, dry line is developing, I can drift N or race S for adjustments. I would like to see surface winds backed a little and a more veered vertical wind profile, but I'm here now, so I'll sleep in the bed I made. I do think the juice will erode the cap and some nice storms will develop, but how soon before dark?
Edit: On second thought, it's already after 3pm CDT. If I'm gonna do much moving, it'll have to be soon. I think I'll drive the 1 hour 18 min drive down to Snyder, OK. Skies are a little more clear further south and I'll have more of a play on the existing dry line. CAPE has been progged to be much higher in TX by 0z as well. If skies continue to clear, I might head a little further south toward Electra, TX.
Edit: OK, I did this at about 4am, so sleep depravity and info overload led me to the conclusion that 18z is 3pm (just like a real chase scenario, after days in hotels with late nights and early mornings, LOL)- correction 1pm, but I'll stick to my original adjustment toward Electra, TX.
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Danny Neal
EF5
Going to head south on 35 for a bit. I think Iowa is the better play. Gonna set up shop in Mason City for now.
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Adam Lucio
EF5
Im already here. Meet me at the local McDonalds.
Paul Austin
I just realized Marc and I are chasing separately today. Marc, how did you get so far north without me? You left me at the hotel without even discussing a target? Well, I guess one of us is gonna bust big (hopefully not both of us). I've got a sinking feeling about this. Good luck up in IA!
Andrea Griffa
EF5
I'm at subway in Ft Dodge,Ia
Mike Peregrine
EF5
Got held up at work this morning, but finally broke free and am steaming up to Denison, Iowa. The moisture and wind ahead of the CF in NE Kansas caught my eye, but it looks like there's enough CAPE in Iowa for something to happen. Cold core is another option. I probably should have gone with Currens today.
Kevin Crawmer
EF2
This is tough. I glanced at this the first day it was out and my first impression was Altus, OK. Right now I am thinking that maybe the Wichita area because of decent roads to get out of town. I am not buying the northern target right now because of the limited CAPE and lack of clear skies. I could be wrong though. I am going to stick with the Wichita area for now and make a move from there. I hope there is enough forcing for something to fire....moisture, CAPE, and decent shear appear to be there, although the winds appear to be backed more in IA/MN.
