Chase Case #13

  • Thread starter Thread starter Dann Cianca
  • Start date Start date
Due to the actual time difference - 1Z is 3 AM at the middle of the night in my home, I won't be participating in the live chase either.

With that said, I am going to Algona, IA. I should be there by 22Z(barring any traffic issues) provided that I leave just minutes after 21Z... and I think that for the rest of the day, I am going to stick around in that general area waiting for events to unfold. Will probably start heading eastward again if the situation warrants.
 
I just now got a look see at this one. My brain can only seem to see that tropical thing in Texas. My first thought was to head for---NOWHERE--I had no idea-but with all the info so far-I am going to head towards Fort Wayne, Indiana. Based on humidity/warm front/dryline (for me anyway)/ and a feeling that moisture is being shoved that wat from that thing in Texas.
 
I'm seeing this still as a triple-point play. With the better winds and ample thermodynamics to the north, and an upper impulse producing some real storms from western Manitoba down to the Black Hills at 21Z, I'll leave Fergus Falls for Gardner, ND, by 22Z. In RL I'd be making a beeline toward Devil's Lake via Grand Forks.
 
LOL, when he posted the live chase would begin at 1Z for some reason I read it as 12z...ha ha. I've been sitting here wondering when he was getting to it!! Ok, well anyway while we're waiting 'till tonight Im staying in Fairmont since I probably dont have enough time to make it up north where I would rather be. We'll see how far off I was on this one.
 
I'm really struggling to get a "feel" on what the atmosphere is doing as I've never chased this far north and not nearly as familiar with the way the weather behaves out here. I am noticing and liking the backing of the winds over parts of Minnesota and right now that's the only thing that caught my eye. Since the warmfront is continuing to move northward, I'm going to ever so slightly adjust my target from Willmar, MN to Litchfield, MN. I have the munchies as well so it's time to break out the pop-tarts and gummy bears. Oh, drat...I'm out of pop. Gonna need stock up at a convenience store then. Hmm, wonder if they'll have any sidewalk-chalk so I can draw some pretty little 'naders to pass the time...
 
I like the back surface winds to the east and the 74 degree Td. I just don't like that they're sitting over the Twin Cities, and I wish H5 winds were a bit stronger. I don't know MN, and what I've seen of Wisconsin makes me not want to chase there anytime soon. But I'm going to take my chances and head up to Hastings, MN.
 
I probably won't be able to make the live chase, but I am pretty happy where I am in St. Cloud, MN. I might move up I-94 30 miles or so to the northwest, but this still looks to me like the place to be. Good directional shear along the warm front, good clearing to the west and southwest, strong upper wind. West-central MN looks to me like it has as good or better tornado potential than anywhere else.
 
I probably won't be able to make the live chase, but I am pretty happy where I am in St. Cloud, MN. I might move up I-94 30 miles or so to the northwest, but this still looks to me like the place to be. Good directional shear along the warm front, good clearing to the west and southwest, strong upper wind. West-central MN looks to me like it has as good or better tornado potential than anywhere else.

I don't know. There's fair potential for tornadoes down in central and se TX ;)
 
It is time for the 22Z update. The Live Chase begins now. I have all the maps saved and they will update corresponding to the time stamp on the maps. Good luck and have fun! I will keep up withe movement on the http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/54440.


2200Z-SFCNP.png


2200Z-RADUMV.png


2200Z-RADCMV.png


2200Z-IRSSFC.png
 
Based on the 22z data, I am going to nudge to the east from Milbank. I am currently pushing fast to the east on HWY 12 on a path to Wilmar Mn. I will then track to the NE and set up shop in St. Cloud until the next update. Road options will be tricky, and if I decide to make a play, it may be towards lake Millacs, and there isn't alot of options from there. So, my instinct will lead me up HWY 23 from St. Cloud to the NE around Hinckley MN. and I think that will be a better play. Winds are backed nicely along E. Minnesota, the warm front adding lift coupled with a upper level trough raking through. Either way, it looks like I will be chasing to the north of the Minneapple, and may traverse into W. Wisconsin if I have to. By the next update, I anticipate being in St. Cloud debating on heading to Hinckley Mn.I will wait til the next update.
 
Going to hang where I am in Fort Wayne , Ind, the stuff in Wisconson is going to blow over Lake Michigan, and I still like the front I am under
 
I am going to leave Montevideo and head up to Alexandria, MN. I think that will be my final jog north and I can be there around 23:30Z per mapquest. I am already regretting the long drive from Wichita and should have just stayed home on this chase day. Virtual chasing is free though!

I hope I can play something on the warm front, but the furthern north you get the more lakes, hills, and trees you get into. Alexandria, MN will be my final location and I will be able to document anything within 60-80 miles of that location fairly easy.

I may not be back on here until later tonight to check out the results. I gotta go watch the OU/OSU basketball game that comes on in 45min.

Good luck to all! Bag a cone someone!
 
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