Chase Case #13

[Leah Robertson]

Another one who's late to arrive...

*Looks at 12Z data*
Hmm, seems there could be an opportunity to play off an outflow boundary with all the early morning convection. With the warm front surging northward, I'm going to go ahead and start off in Willmar, MN.

*Looks at 18Z data*
Feel like I'm in a good location and will stay in Willmar, MN.

 

[David Wolfson]

With the position of the warm front and surface low movement, the I-94 axis looks like a feasible path through the trees. I like the winds further north, so I'll leave Watertown, SD, for Fergus Falls, MN, at 21Z.

 

[Dann Cianca]

I believe everybody is updated on the Wayfaring Map. If you're not correct on there and are concerned about it, let me know and I'll change it immediately!

Also, the 21Z update will occur tomorrow morning/early afternoon. Then, I want to do something fun on Monday.

At 22Z, I'll start posting live updates through a little after 1Z. Since the visible satellite is limited during this period, it will be mostly radar imagery. This will, in effect, be a "live chase". So, if you're around and want to follow, it could be fun. I suggest using Google Maps to estimate real-time driving times if you need to adjust your position and I will be updating the Wayfaring map accordingly.

If nobody will be home or at a computer during this time, we can do the "live chase" later in the evening. Thoughts? ... going from 1Z to 4Z instead (covering the 22Z-1Z time period).

I have Monday off, so it's no big for me.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Going to reposition a bit. Heading off to Clear Lake, IA.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Moving toward Worthington,Mn and waiting for 21Z: hope for a secondary low to form.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I think I am going to drop a little southwest down to Willmar MN after looking over the 18z data pkg. I like the nice theta ridge poking in down there and still holding at good backed sfc winds on the boundary. I feel I am a little too far northeast sitting in St.Cloud. At any rate I would expect something to explosively develop within 20 miles of Willmar and love the road network out of town to nail things once things start firing on the boundary.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

After getting lunch in Worthington, MN and observing more of the 18z closer. I am liking the more SE winds to my north. I am a bit standoffish seeing the SSW winds in Sioux Falls as they will likely continue to turn more SW and then W. So with that we are changing our plan of action and have decided to head north like most guys are deciding to do and we will target Montevideo, MN which is about an hour and a half away so we will have to fly north.

 

[Jason Branz]

Aargh...late getting in but after pouring over the 12Z stuff, I'll head to Yankton SD. Instability might be marginally better down there, so we'll start there.

18Z Adjustment: Mosey north to Mitchell, SD. Those low 70s Tds are great!

 

[Dick McGowan]

I just looked at the data on from the road. I am still driving north on I-29 (left Wichita at 5 this morning). I am about an hour south of Watertown. What do you say we meet up there and shoot the ***** while we wait for the 21Z data or a storm to fire (whichever comes first). We will be in good position to play the warm front and have a good east road option to get into MN or travel further north on I-29. I'll speed it up a little and try to make it to Watertown, SD before 2pm. It will take you about the same time to drive from Aberdeen to Watertown so we should get there about the same time.

Sounds good...I think initiation is still 2 hours away at least...so no hurries.

I wish we had a better satellite view, but there seems to be an outflow boundary near Huron, extending E/NE into WC. Minnesota, then further W/SW of Huron : http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v190/leporinis/ChaseCase/18Z-COLIRNAT.png

And you can see the 85/73 in Huron? with a north wind. That observation seems more saturated than those around it, making me think that's what it is. This should enhance surface convergence along the dryline and west of the lifting warm front...so I hope we are in a good spot (to the NE of this feature) !!!!!!!

 

[Jeff Duda]

I'm going to sit on the border of SD/MN halfway between the corner where IA/MN meet and ND/SD/MN meet. A good nearby town is Hendricks, MN.

 

[Dann Cianca]

21Z Update

OKAY! So, tomorrow night (MONDAY), I will be implementing a LIVE CHASE.

The LIVE CHASE begins at 1Z (8EST,7CST,6MST,4PST) and will run for a little over three hours. 1Z will correspond to 22Z of the chase day, 2Z to 23Z and so on. The LIVE CHASE will last a bit over 3 hours with the final results being posted at 430Z (or 130Z chase time). Expect updates every half hour or so during that period.

Questions? Comments?


The Wayfaring Map has been updated to current.

Note: If you're just reading this chase case for the first time, feel free to participate in the live chase tomorrow anyway.

 

[Sam Kennedy]

I've jumped in a bit late, I wont be up at 0100z so I'll just put where I would be. I would have started in the Southern Nebraska Panhandle, and drove east along with the dryline. Right now I would be in Northwest Iowa. So I wont be able to play live but I will be in that general area.

 

[Brandon Ivey]

Sounds good...I think initiation is still 2 hours away at least...so no hurries.

I wish we had a better satellite view, but there seems to be an outflow boundary near Huron, extending E/NE into WC. Minnesota, then further W/SW of Huron : http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v190/leporinis/ChaseCase/18Z-COLIRNAT.png

And you can see the 85/73 in Huron? with a north wind. That observation seems more saturated than those around it, making me think that's what it is. This should enhance surface convergence along the dryline and west of the lifting warm front...so I hope we are in a good spot (to the NE of this feature) !!!!!!!

I agree with you on the outflow boundary this morning/early afternoon. There is still presence of lower lcl's to the north of this feature, but it appears to be currently washing out as their is no backed flow to the north of it.

I think we should leave Watertown and head east on highway 212 to Montevideo, MN. We have a ob of 83/71 here in Watertown giving us a 12 degree temp/dewpoint depression with an UGLY SW SFC wind. Over in Montevideo the ob is 82/72 leading to a Tdd of 10 degrees with more of a backed SFC flow (due south). Lcl's will be lower in this region and I am almost thinking we should play on the western side of the cloudiness in MN to try and get the best backed SFC winds we can, but still have some insolation for some low level CAPE!

If something good does pop back in E. SD, we won't have any trouble catching it. I am just worried that if we hang too far west, we may miss a diamond in the rough today further east. Sound good to you? Alright, let's make the oil companies some more money and depriciate our cars a little more! What a deal

 

[Dann Cianca]

I've jumped in a bit late, I wont be up at 0100z so I'll just put where I would be. I would have started in the Southern Nebraska Panhandle, and drove east along with the dryline. Right now I would be in Northwest Iowa. So I wont be able to play live but I will be in that general area.

Hi Sam, put you in Cherokee, Iowa. (northwest Iowa, centered) ... does that work?

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm leaving Worthington and heading north toward S.Cloud,Mn. I will take a look at the sky while driving ready to intercept any cell firing.