Chase Case #13

  • Thread starter Thread starter Dann Cianca
  • Start date Start date

Dann Cianca

Alright! I've been wanting to do one of these ... So, this one might be a little tough as some of the data is sparse ... especially regional visible sat shots. Do your best! I will do a 12Z, 18Z, 21Z, 0Z update and then show the results.

RULES!

Assuming you've forecast the day before, you may start out ANYWHERE in the contiguous U.S. Just because you live in California doesn't mean you can't chase in Maine. After your initial target, just be reasonable. Everyone has been doing that great anyway. I just always see people saying that they're starting from HOME that morning ... so you don't have to start at home. :) Have fun. Good luck.


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I'm intrigued by central IA/srn MN along the wf with potential for ofb interactions to generate lift, slightly backing sfc winds, modest but sufficient upper air dynamics, and plenty of moisture. But I think I'll jump in my teleporter and land in Carrington, ND. I like the upper air dynamics with the approaching sfc low, lifting wf, ample moisture, and early clearing. I'm not completely sold on this target. The air is pretty stoutly capped at 850mb, but I'm hoping sfc heating and advection take care of thay by fireworks time. The absence of regional sat imagery makes me nervous, but I don't get to chase this far north often. Hopefully, I'll have an opportunity to adjust some once 18z presents its little surprises. I've severely limited my options this far north, but I'm gonna roll with it and take about a 6 hour nap.

I might be tempted by the tropical system down in TX, but I've chased enough of the wet, low-vis tropical stuff to pass this one up. I know a gem can sometimes be found, but forecasting embedded (or isolated) sups with that type of system is mostly a crap shoot. It's more about luck, timing, and visibility (ie. luck). I can usually get the quadrant right, LOL. Someone wake me up when 18z rolls around.
 
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A tropical system in Texas caught my attention, but I think I'll pass that one. So - I was thinking about a target in SD and about a target in IA, but eventually decided to choose Ft. Dodge, IA for a start.
 
Well, the deepest moisture and best veering seem to be in western IA so I'm going to start in Des Moines ready to head west as things start poping.
 
This is definately summer and I like the upper midwest this time of year. Based on SFC Analysis, I will hang in Ortonville Mn, and get some walleye fishing in on Big Stone Lake. Right on the border of SD, so I can cruise to Milbank, SD within minutes.
 
I'm going to start off in Albert Lea, MN. It's socked in right now with clouds, but it looks like a good overall agreement with moisture, backed surface winds, and strengthening upper levels. From here, I'll wait for the next update to see whether I head west, south, north, or stay put. Best turning with height right now looks to be in northeast NE, but better shear will be north of there, and I'd rather adjust from the east than play catch-up from the west.
 
I'll start the day off in Pierre, SD. Not seeing the Iowa target just yet...weak shear out there (for now). I'll go with the stronger 850-500 mb flow that should be within reach of me as data comes in later in the day. I'll probably be heading even further north today as the warm front lifts. Not liking the 500 mb temps anywhere right now (with -10 showing at best). This has got to be a summer event.
 
I will target Aberdeen, SD. I got up at the azz crack of dawn (5AM)and I am heading up that way. I am checking updates on my laptop as I travel and will adjust my target if needed as I arrive in the area around 2:00 or 3:00PM.
 
After a closer look at the data we will continue through Des Moines and head up to Albert Lea, MN and look over data before possibly heading west.
 
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