Chase Case #10

[Jason Branz]

All righty...keeping the cases going with #10. This was one of my all-time favorite chase days, even though a few chasing mistakes were made. I've included upper air charts, soundings, sat and rad images, and of course, surface obs. The Day 1 convective outlook might give it away, so I didn't link that here.

12Z Observations

Upper Air
300 MB
500 MB
700 MB
850 MB

Satellite
Central and Southern Plains

Surface
Central and Southern Plains
High Plains
Northern Plains

Soundings
North Platte NE
Topeka KS
Dodge City KS
Denver CO
Norman OK
Amarillo TX
Midland TX
Fort Worth TX

Radar
Central Plains
Southern Plains

15Z Update will be posted around 8 PM CST, with the 18Z update either late tonight or by 9:30 AM CST. Once I figure out this Wayfaring map stuff I'll post a link to that too.

EDIT: Figured it out: Wayfaring Map

Ready...set...chase!

 

[Dann Cianca]

Would it be possible to get surface obs from the northern plains, i.e. eastern Montana?

 

[Mike Peregrine]

This does look interesting. Looks like maybe a negative tilt to the trough? Some really cool looking winds and the storms should be easy to chase. On satellite it looks like some OFBs spreading across the panhandles into extreme southwest Kansas that should work to trigger something as the day goes on, and hopefully reinforce the boundaries with some funky wind action at the surface. This is a really preliminary target (obviously), but based on this info I'm going to head to Pratt, Kansas and await further updates (though I expect to head further west). Hopefully some more clear air will spread across southern KS.

 

[Dick McGowan]

I'll start the day off in Liberal, Kansas.

 

[Buddy W Bradley]

Thanks to everyone involved in putting these virtual chases together. I think I am gonna set up in Wichita Falls, TX for now and wait for further updates. I just think this will be a TX and S Oklahoma event. Time will tell.

 

[Ted Keller]

Well, leaving Springfield, MO I'd have to check out developments in west Texas. A good EML and perhaps the establishment of some sort of outflow boundary from the extremely messy morning convection.

I'll take Amarillo.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

After going back and looking at Midland's sounding and then having a peek at satellite again, now I'm wondering if Buddy might be onto something. Already a Cu field developing across west Texas too. I think I'm going to re-target to Lubbock. lol ... I always hate going out on limbs right off the bat ... oh well!

 

[Jason Branz]

Sure Dann...here ya go:

Northern Plains 12Z SFC

 

[Brandon Ivey]

Okay, after bombing the May 4th, 2003 chase case by picking a target of Salina off the 12Z maps, I will try again. (I guess I did not bomb the actual day), but I was not able to keep up with the updates this past weekend. I usually don't forecast this way due to my work schedule, but these are fun. The way my forecast goes is by looking at the models in depth the night before, getting up the next morning and going to work, then briefly checking real-time weather data as the day progresses to find out the area I need to be in. Then as I travel to that region, I base my choices off of surface obs and mesoanalysis charts from the good ole' SPC.

This looks like a Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle into SW Kansas day. I will leave Wichita around noon and head west on highway 54. I think I will stop in Pratt, KS and check out the 18Z data there. There should be a nice outflow boundary present later in the day with the ongoing convection. I expect to be in Pratt at 1pm.

 

[Matthew Harding]

I think I will join you in Pratt to chat and compare notes on the day Brandon, if you don't mind. I really like how the winds at 500 mb are perpendicular to the winds at 800 mb at DDC.

 

[Brandon Ivey]

Wow, it is amazing how many other post were added in the 5-10 min. I spent typing that post. LOL. These chase cases are great! I think all of us chasers are desperate for anything right about now....new network series idea??? "Desperate Chasers". I get royalties on that idea if any tv producers are snooping around on here for leads!

I would like to chase the southern Texas Pan. today, but in all reality, this may be a work day for me and I am thinking about my typical chase range/days. The last time I went to the Lubbock area to chase, it was hell. The drive took forever and I got pulled over twice on the way home at ~1:00 - 2:00 AM near Pampa. The officer gave me a ticket for doing 71 in a 65. I was shocked . I guess if the sun was still up I would have only been doing 1mph over the speed limit. Do they give tickets for a 71 in a 70 out there?

 

[Mike Peregrine]

They pull everyone over down there (guilty grin). Don't worry about it, though ... you're getting an early enough start to your day. I'd say this is worth a sick day. Join the party in Texas ... good people, good food, and there's just always a tornado around Throckmorton somewhere.

 

[Brandon Ivey]

Sounds good Matt. I will see you in Pratt. I agree with you on the winds, and on a realistic chase day, I would not be going as far south as most have targeted already. I have to keep reality in play with these cases. I can't jump 2 states in 3 hours like it seems some can. What kind of cars are you guys driving? I would like to buy one of those for 2009.

 

[Derek Weston]

Well, gosh, I've always wanted to chase the Oklahoma panhandle. Hooker it is... though I almost settled on Beaver... All the same in the end, right?

(note, that was based on upper air and nothing else... because I'm impulsive and lazy like that)

 

[Brandon Ivey]

Ahh don't mention that town. I missed the big show by 30 min. down there on April 7th...what was it...2001? I think I will stick to the northern target. As I age, I get sick of the longer drives and try to be a little lazier. Some times I get screwed for that, but hey, there are always other chase days and you can't win them all. I can still make a good jog into the N. Panhandle or western Oklahoma by being in Pratt at 1:00 pm. Plus I have to save my sick days for hurricane season. That is when I take two or three days off at a time!