Chase Case #1

[Danny Neal]

I was bored tonight.... I went from being disgusting slob watching college football to disgusting slob looking up past weather data.

*EVERYONE PICK A TARGET CITY OR AREA, START AS IF YOU WERE THERE AT 7 AM AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY, REMEMBER! ACCURATE TRAVEL TIMES ARE A MUST!*

12z data from the MORNING OF THE EVENT!

LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD.

Surface data:
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Midwest

Upper Air data:
250
300
500
700
850

Soundings: (I have more soundings, but they were for later times so to make this accurate I am going to only give the data available at 12z)
AMA
ILX
LZK

Radar:
N. Plains
U. MS. Valley
Midwest
C. Plains
S. Plains

Satellite:
N. Plains
Midwest
C. Plains
S. Plains

12z composite

12z vorticity

Wind Profiler (image 1) (image 2)

AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH STORMS ACROSS WRN MO. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

Have at it ladies and gentlemen! This will be my only update for the night. (Unless there is a particular special request) My next update (18z) will be tomorrow afternoon sometime!

 

[Adam Lucio]

Hmmmmm, I see a potential northern and southern target. So I think I will wake up very early in St Joseph, MO and decide if I want to go north or south from there.

 

[Randall Cooper]

Thanks for bringing this back Danny! I really enjoy these alot for practice! Like Adam, I am waking up at my apartment in St. Joseph and really like the Omaha area, but I also saw a little bit of a southern target as well after that line moves through and sets up some outflow boundaries possibly. But I will likely stay in St. Joe til the next update and Im thinking I'll move north to Omaha(possibly Lincoln), but we'll see.

Target at 7 AM: St. Joseph, MO

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Well I live about 10 hours from the area of interest, so by 7am I had better be on the road towards St Jo, MO. I like the shortwave coming through SE NE/NW MO. Hope the clouds will clear out by lunch. I'll be checking the mesoanalysis as I drive through Kansas to see if I need to fine tune my forecast. But as of 7am, initial target is St Joseph, MO. Mostly because it has excellent road options.

Scratch that, I'll chill out at the Wendy's parking lot in Nebraska City, NE

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I am starting the day in Salina, KS. I have good north, south, and east road options. I don't think I will be going west.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Trying to keep this realistic, will start from Norman within the hour for Salina, KS. Plan is to get there around noon and assess my options from there.

 

[Matthew Fischer]

I'll waking up looking at data having breakfast in Topeka, KS. North has some cloudiness and not sure that will break and well Iowa just sucks! Plus the storms currently in MO and E IA/W IL could suppress storms to nothing at all though it still morning! South has a good cap so storms may wait. plus the dry line in west Texas looks good for the cap rock. Going to wait two hours and decide to go north or south.

 

[jaredleighton]

Dry line will probably mix a little further eastward and the WF will probably push a little further north. Have a feeling that the outflow from the MCS charging into SW Missouri may play a role so don't want to get too far west. Looks like the upper level dynamics also favor development in SC Kansas/NC Oklahoma. Going to start my day by leaving Lawrence, and heading to Enid, Ok...will arrive around 12 pm.

 

[Scott Hammel]

Thanks for doing another one of these! Feeling a little exploratory, I'm out the door before sunrise heading S out of Denver targeting the TX Pan. I can easily get to Amarillo, TX by lunch time. It's definitely a lesser target at the moment, but I'll take the chance. DL play for me today and I'll probably be moving south and east on the next update.

 

[Andy Jackson]

I will try Joplin, Mo for starters. Hopefully I'm not too far off....

 

[Sean Miller]

I will go ahead and start my day in Wichita, KS. I'm keeping my options open for a Northern play but I personally like the dynamics better in the South. Will sit tight here in Wichita and grab some breakfast while I wait for the next update.

 

[Jeremy Perez]

The area of interest for me is the warm front extending from the surface low near Woodward, OK, up to north central MO. Two upper level jet max heading into north central MO and south central KS. Surface moisture advection pushing up throughout OK, but is shallow across western OK/KS. Dryline through TX panhandle appears to be superimposed over a cold front. Not sure how good N MO terrain is for chasing. Looking at southern action. Starting in Ottawa, KS

 

[Connor Keef]

My Target would be Clinton, OK

 

[Bob Hartig]

Enjoying bacon, eggs, and pancakes in Wichita, KS. I like the moisture axis that's moving north out of OK. Plus, a 300 mb jet max appears to be targeting central KS, and a WF looks like it'll be lifting this way. Not sure what'll happen with 850 moisture, but this is a good location to find out and adjust my position as I need to.

 

[Tyler_Costantini]

Looks like a good day for me to say at the house in Pittsburg, KS and watch the MCS go through. Then follow the WF North towards KC.. and see what we get. Maybe even into NE / IA will see where that upper level energy goes. Even for someone who likes old school forecasting i will be the first to say I'm hooked on model data good or bad. heh.