Caribbean: Hurricane Paula

[Josh Morgerman]

The cyclone is nearing the W tip of Cuba. It looks like crap on the IR-- just a small smudge of convection-- but Cuban radar shows a surprisingly intact core. (IR imagery just doesn't have the resolution to pick up the fine details of such a small system.)

The surface obs should be interesting if this can make it ashore as a 'cane. The rain shield is compact and 64-kt winds extend only 10 mi from the center. Now that's a microcane!

 

[Dennis Dennison]

Ya-Down to 65 winds and going to make a hard right over Cuba--BUT-by Friday at 5 am it will be back over open waters and who knows what it will become

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Ya-Down to 65 winds and going to make a hard right over Cuba--BUT-by Friday at 5 am it will be back over open waters and who knows what it will become

What will actually happen (most likely) is the convection will shear off to the NE and the remnant low move SE, then S, or even SW (if still a LLC). This remnant low is a very shallow low (mesolow) and rarely regenerates.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Shows over folks, Paula is toast.

We need to watch out for Richard which is forecast to form in the same area as Paula in about 5 days time....

 

[Martin Kucera]

Filmed one waterspout yesterday and two more were reported off Key Largo this morning. Other than that just a pretty good rain maker.