Caribbean: Hurricane Paula

[Stuart Robinson]

In the last hour, Just North East of Honduras, RECON have just found flight level winds of 45 Knots (41 Knots at surface).

Providing that a Low Level Centre can be found then we have Tropical Storm Paula


171330 1620N 08351W 7962 02048 0097 +144 -001 077041 045 041 009 00
45 knots flight level, 41 knots at the surface

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Wow!

GFDL actually builds Paula in a Major Hurricane passing over extreme Western Cuba in 72 Hours - eventually brushing South Florida by 96 Hours....

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Paula has just been declared.

 

[cdcollura]

Interesting ... Almost similar to Wilma in 2005 (track wise).

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Flight Recon Data reports a hurricane.. 77kt winds at flight level!

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 77 KT NE QUAD 19:27:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 306 / 13 NM FROM FL CNTR
SPIRAL BAND BETTER ORGANIZED NW AROUND TO NE
INFREQ LTG IN NW QUAD WITH BAND

Latest NHC Advisory has it at TS strength though.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The 77 kt seems to have been caused by a localized convective feature and is not representative of the cyclone's overall intensity. That having been said, Paula's looking pretty good and I'm keeping a super-close eye on this one.

 

[Matthew Munsey]

 

[Jason Harris]

Interesting to keep in mind that South Florida gets hit more in October than any other month:

In fact, since 1851 more hurricanes have struck the south Florida mainland in October than in any other month of the season. A total of 19 hurricanes have impacted the south Florida mainland in October, compared to 15 in September. A total of 30 tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) have affected mainland south Florida, also the most of any month.

Tropical Cyclone Climatology pdf available for download here:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/

 

[Dennis Dennison]

As of 2:55Z 10/12/10---showing it will NOT make it to Florida

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Wild model swings over the eventual track. I do note that the 18Z GFS Ensemble mean tracks Paula over south Florida. At this stage chasers should be alert to the fact that model gudence tracks Paula right up the spine of the Florida Keys.

I expect the NHC track to move north of Cuba in the next update...

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

The south FL track is a distinct possibility but NHC is still keeping the storm doing a "chase teasing" slow loop in the Caribbean south of Cuba until dissapation.

Ugh, why can't it just recurve like all the other ones did in the Atlantic this year??

BTW: The air mass over FL and the Gulf is NOTHING conducive for tropical strengthening at this time. Strong SW wind shear and dry air (blocking high) in the mid levels.

That will have to change as well.

MODS: You also might want to change the title to HURRICANE Paula as this just got upgraded to a hurricane!

 

[Steven Martinaitis]

Interesting special intermediate advisory on Hurricane Paula, which includes an upgrade to Category II status with winds of 100 mph (85 kts). Hurricane Hunters finding a closed, ragged eye ranging from 8-12 nautical miles over the past few observations with a notation stating that the "eye shape closer to square than circular." Although the central pressure does seem a bit high (981 mb), a maximum flight level wind of 94 kts now brings future intensity forecasts near Category III status within the next 12-36 hours.

 

[Zach Young]

Paula is so small is doesn't take a very low central pressure to produce a tight pressure gradient.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I love these microcanes-- so cool.

Given its brisk movement, the entire event probably wouldn't last more than a couple of hours in any one location.

I was hoping for a Cozumel landfall and was toying with the idea of flying out there last night-- but I fortunately nixed that idea due to the lack of clear signals.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Pauld is now moving due north and (as for Josh M) not going to Mexico was a good decision (it's going east of there).

NHC is still forecasting a very hard right turn to dues east skirting the N Cuban coast (this is why us hurricane chasers from the USA HATE the embargo, but that's "political" and I won't talk about that here).

Many models bring it over S Florida / FL Keys by the latter part of the week. I am hoping this verifies for an intercept. I do NOT like all the dry air in the mid levels and strong winds aloft (the "S" word) that would cause rapid weakening if it does cross FL.

I love these small storms, but hate these systems that are so weak at landfall you have to fight your way through traffic to chase them (as everything is still open and many people out on the road when they shouldn't).

This probably will NOT be another "Wilma" of 2005.