Big bomb/Witch of November the week of Thanksgiving?

[Joel Wright]

The latest GFS model has a 982mb low tracking through the heart of the midwest next Tuesday and Wednesday. High gradient winds, severe storms, and maybe a narrow swath of heavy wet snow is possible if it actually pans out. It has been relatively consistant the last few runs with the intensity of the storm, although the track has shifted back and forth by a few hundred miles several times.

I think there's a possibility the storm may end up being even deeper, and further west. This will be an interesting one to track.

Anyone else following this?

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

The models have been flip-flopping all over the board regarding the system early next week. The 12Z eta had a big storm developing at 84h, and it was just a weak open wave on the 18Z run. The GFS model had just the opposite. It's way too early to say.

 

[Joel Wright]

The 00Z run from the GFS now has the LP down to 979MB at noon on Wednesday! Roughly in the same area as the 18Z run.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Joel Wright
The 00Z run from the GFS now has the LP down to 979MB at noon on Wednesday! Roughly in the same area as the 18Z run.

Guess where I will be for this one? Can anyone say Lake Superior shoreline? LOL

Will be there the day before Thanksgiving for the holiday weekend...

 

[Bill Tabor]

It's been a few hours since I looked at the latest 0Z run of the GFS. I too was excited when I first saw the pretty compact and deep low crossing the OK/KS vicinity for parts east on Tuesday and further east Wed. Very compact vortmax tagging behind as well. Then I saw what to me appear to be problems if you want supercells, and tornadoes / severe.

1) The higher dewpoints aren't showing very far north such as the area of the sfc low, and mid level low very well.
2) The temperatures aren't that high either.
3) The vort seems to be lagging the sfc low and is somewhat out of sync.
4) Instability / Theta e not that high.
5) There appears to be widespread precipitation going on in the same general vicinity (multiple states) for quiet some time. This should stabilize and limit heating.
6) I don't recall the 500mb temps. Perhaps if those are low it could help for severe.

Based on the above, right now I agree with rain, snow, and lots of wind combined with embedded thunderstorms. But with lack of moisture and instability at the moment at least until new model runs show differently I'd say that good surfaced based supercell / tornado potential will be limited. :argue:

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Bill Tabor
It's been a few hours since I looked at the latest 0Z run of the GFS. I too was excited when I first saw the pretty compact and deep low crossing the OK/KS vicinity for parts east on Tuesday and further east Wed. Very compact vortmax tagging behind as well. Then I saw what to me appear to be problems if you want supercells, and tornadoes / severe.

1) The higher dewpoints aren't showing very far north such as the area of the sfc low, and mid level low very well.
2) The temperatures aren't that high either.
3) The vort seems to be lagging the sfc low and is somewhat out of sync.
4) Instability / Theta e not that high.
5) There appears to be widespread precipitation going on in the same general vicinity (multiple states) for quiet some time. This should stabilize and limit heating.
6) I don't recall the 500mb temps. Perhaps if those are low it could help for severe.

Based on the above, right now I agree with rain, snow, and lots of wind combined with embedded thunderstorms. But with lack of moisture and instability at the moment at least until new model runs show differently I'd say that good surfaced based supercell / tornado potential will be limited. :argue:

Yeah, November bombs are typically snow/rain producers, with hurricane force winds at some spots. Lake Superior and the high terrain is the worst place to be. Our cabin is located about 2 miles from Lake superior near Houghton, MI... And it's quite high up above sea level. It's also good for lake effect snow...

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

If the models are correct, there should be a 980-985 low near lake michigan with 40-60mph winds behind the storm with blizz. condtions in wis, the U.P and minn. Ahead of it strong SW winds, lots of rain and maybe a thunderless squall line with damaging winds.

Somewhere in the U.P will have 2 feet of snow on the ground from the snow from the storm and the following LES event.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Jeremy Lemanski
If the models are correct, there should be a 980-985 low near lake michigan with 40-60mph winds behind the storm with blizz. condtions in wis, the U.P and minn. Ahead of it strong SW winds, lots of rain and maybe a thunderless squall line with damaging winds.

Somewhere in the U.P will have 2 feet of snow on the ground from the snow from the storm and the following LES event.

Yeah, most likely my location while I am trying to get somewhere! LOL When it snows up there, it SNOWS! I have never witnessed snowfall rates as high as I have seen up there. The flakes are large and many, back in 1996 (which was a record year for Houghton), I seen nearly 5 inches accumulate in just one hour, it slowed a bit after that... Storm total was just over 36 inches, and that was day 1 of the un-bearable winter, LOL. Best thing to do is just stay inside, and the plows will dig you out in a few days (our town is 50 miles from anything, with a population of just over 250). Lightning and thunder often comes with the snow as well, and it's really neat sounding - Echoes through the forests with a muffled sound.

 

[Joel Wright]

The 12Z GFS still has nearly the same track with the LP still bottoming out in the lower 980's. I would expect it to be about 5-8mb stronger than that, as the GFS usually underdoes the strength a bit. Keep in mind this will likely push the track a bit west, which is more climatologically sound for this time of year. This is going to be one hell of a storm baby!!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

"Interesting" band of snow developing over KS through se NE into IA too, in the deform zone. I am ready for some weather! Since this isn't target area can I act all stupid like and say silly things like...."wowie!!!", "good lord look at that sfc low!!!", "jumpin johozofat", "zoinks!!!"? Ok, I just said them and it feels good. Maybe we can have target area-lite here, since weather and chasing can be rather quiet.

 

[Dan Hawblitzel]

Wow, 18Z GFS gives KC a hefty snowstorm Wednesday morning. I'd be all for that if I weren't flying in that day.

This one will be fun to watch.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I liked the 12Z GFS better, but that's because it gave me more snow, LOL. Depends on your are which model you are rooting for :lol:

Either way, lake effect still looking rather good across upper MI.

 

[Joe Nield]

I've had enough drizzle/low stratus crap here at IND. Looks like this will be more of the same. :evil:

 

[Jeff Lawson]

I originally had a job interview scheduled for Wednesday morning in Chicago, but shifted it to later in December once I realized I didn't want to be flying in and out of O'Hare around Thanksgiving. Given the potential winter storm, looks like I made the right decision.

So, I'll just hang out here in Omaha and hope for the first good snow of the season. Growing up in Texas, I still find the stuff unusual and special, so I'm excited.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Originally posted by Joe Nield
I've had enough drizzle/low stratus crap here at IND. Looks like this will be more of the same. :evil:

I agree joe! Been forever since we seen the big orange ball. I have been in the mood to photograph a sunrise this weekend, but the weather wont cooperate!