Big bomb/Witch of November the week of Thanksgiving?

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The latest GFS model has a 982mb low tracking through the heart of the midwest next Tuesday and Wednesday. High gradient winds, severe storms, and maybe a narrow swath of heavy wet snow is possible if it actually pans out. It has been relatively consistant the last few runs with the intensity of the storm, although the track has shifted back and forth by a few hundred miles several times.

I think there's a possibility the storm may end up being even deeper, and further west. This will be an interesting one to track. :D

Anyone else following this?
 
The models have been flip-flopping all over the board regarding the system early next week. The 12Z eta had a big storm developing at 84h, and it was just a weak open wave on the 18Z run. The GFS model had just the opposite. It's way too early to say.
 
The 00Z run from the GFS now has the LP down to 979MB at noon on Wednesday! Roughly in the same area as the 18Z run.
 
It's been a few hours since I looked at the latest 0Z run of the GFS. I too was excited when I first saw the pretty compact and deep low crossing the OK/KS vicinity for parts east on Tuesday and further east Wed. Very compact vortmax tagging behind as well. Then I saw what to me appear to be problems if you want supercells, and tornadoes / severe.

1) The higher dewpoints aren't showing very far north such as the area of the sfc low, and mid level low very well.
2) The temperatures aren't that high either.
3) The vort seems to be lagging the sfc low and is somewhat out of sync.
4) Instability / Theta e not that high.
5) There appears to be widespread precipitation going on in the same general vicinity (multiple states) for quiet some time. This should stabilize and limit heating.
6) I don't recall the 500mb temps. Perhaps if those are low it could help for severe.

Based on the above, right now I agree with rain, snow, and lots of wind combined with embedded thunderstorms. But with lack of moisture and instability at the moment at least until new model runs show differently I'd say that good surfaced based supercell / tornado potential will be limited. :argue:
 
Originally posted by Bill Tabor
It's been a few hours since I looked at the latest 0Z run of the GFS. I too was excited when I first saw the pretty compact and deep low crossing the OK/KS vicinity for parts east on Tuesday and further east Wed. Very compact vortmax tagging behind as well. Then I saw what to me appear to be problems if you want supercells, and tornadoes / severe.

1) The higher dewpoints aren't showing very far north such as the area of the sfc low, and mid level low very well.
2) The temperatures aren't that high either.
3) The vort seems to be lagging the sfc low and is somewhat out of sync.
4) Instability / Theta e not that high.
5) There appears to be widespread precipitation going on in the same general vicinity (multiple states) for quiet some time. This should stabilize and limit heating.
6) I don't recall the 500mb temps. Perhaps if those are low it could help for severe.

Based on the above, right now I agree with rain, snow, and lots of wind combined with embedded thunderstorms. But with lack of moisture and instability at the moment at least until new model runs show differently I'd say that good surfaced based supercell / tornado potential will be limited. :argue:

Yeah, November bombs are typically snow/rain producers, with hurricane force winds at some spots. Lake Superior and the high terrain is the worst place to be. Our cabin is located about 2 miles from Lake superior near Houghton, MI... And it's quite high up above sea level. It's also good for lake effect snow...
 
If the models are correct, there should be a 980-985 low near lake michigan with 40-60mph winds behind the storm with blizz. condtions in wis, the U.P and minn. Ahead of it strong SW winds, lots of rain and maybe a thunderless squall line with damaging winds.

Somewhere in the U.P will have 2 feet of snow on the ground from the snow from the storm and the following LES event.
 
Originally posted by Jeremy Lemanski
If the models are correct, there should be a 980-985 low near lake michigan with 40-60mph winds behind the storm with blizz. condtions in wis, the U.P and minn. Ahead of it strong SW winds, lots of rain and maybe a thunderless squall line with damaging winds.

Somewhere in the U.P will have 2 feet of snow on the ground from the snow from the storm and the following LES event.

Yeah, most likely my location while I am trying to get somewhere! LOL When it snows up there, it SNOWS! I have never witnessed snowfall rates as high as I have seen up there. The flakes are large and many, back in 1996 (which was a record year for Houghton), I seen nearly 5 inches accumulate in just one hour, it slowed a bit after that... Storm total was just over 36 inches, and that was day 1 of the un-bearable winter, LOL. Best thing to do is just stay inside, and the plows will dig you out in a few days (our town is 50 miles from anything, with a population of just over 250). Lightning and thunder often comes with the snow as well, and it's really neat sounding - Echoes through the forests with a muffled sound.
 
The 12Z GFS still has nearly the same track with the LP still bottoming out in the lower 980's. I would expect it to be about 5-8mb stronger than that, as the GFS usually underdoes the strength a bit. Keep in mind this will likely push the track a bit west, which is more climatologically sound for this time of year. This is going to be one hell of a storm baby!! :)
 
"Interesting" band of snow developing over KS through se NE into IA too, in the deform zone. I am ready for some weather! Since this isn't target area can I act all stupid like and say silly things like...."wowie!!!", "good lord look at that sfc low!!!", "jumpin johozofat", "zoinks!!!"? Ok, I just said them and it feels good. Maybe we can have target area-lite here, since weather and chasing can be rather quiet.
 
Wow, 18Z GFS gives KC a hefty snowstorm Wednesday morning. I'd be all for that if I weren't flying in that day.

This one will be fun to watch.
 
I originally had a job interview scheduled for Wednesday morning in Chicago, but shifted it to later in December once I realized I didn't want to be flying in and out of O'Hare around Thanksgiving. Given the potential winter storm, looks like I made the right decision.

So, I'll just hang out here in Omaha and hope for the first good snow of the season. Growing up in Texas, I still find the stuff unusual and special, so I'm excited.
 
Originally posted by Joe Nield
I've had enough drizzle/low stratus crap here at IND. Looks like this will be more of the same. :evil:

I agree joe! Been forever since we seen the big orange ball. I have been in the mood to photograph a sunrise this weekend, but the weather wont cooperate!
 
I should mention that my previous comments were about the areas that I would chase Tx, Ok, and maybe Ks. Further east of there I really didn't analyze. So maybe they still have a shot at torns? I'd have to look. I will note that the sfc low and mid level cyclone are now syncing up more in the latest runs and have pulled further west and maybe a bit south than previous. If moisture is in this area on Tuesday - look out!
 
Interesting to watch the models over the past few days, how the solutions change over time, I remember the GFS for awhile was progging the low with a pressure of 981 mb into the Great Lakes region, latest 18z GFS has the low much further south along the Indiana-Ohio border with a pressure of 999 mb. Note: The area I been focusing on is Michigan.

Mike
 
Originally posted by mikegeukes
Interesting to watch the models over the past few days, how the solutions change over time, I remember the GFS for awhile was progging the low with a pressure of 981 mb into the Great Lakes region, latest 18z GFS has the low much further south along the Indiana-Ohio border with a pressure of 999 mb. Note: The area I been focusing on is Michigan.

Mike

Same here... Looks like this bomb busted...
 
I dunno...I've never heard an NWS office talk up a severe weather event this hard three or four days out before:

...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS STRONG FOR A HIGH END SEVERE
CONVECTIVE EVENT BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE MAIN CORE OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNPRECEDENTED.

FOR NEARLY 5 DAYS...THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN
ALMOST LOCKSTEP AGREEMENT. THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS...ETA AND UKMENT...ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT. OTHER MODELS...NOGAPS AND DGEX ALSO HAVE SHOWN STRONG AGREEMENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN STRONG AGREEMENT. THE ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN SLIGHTLY...BY A FEW HOURS AND THAT THE SURFACE LOW IS JUST A LITTLE BIT FURTHER SOUTH. NEVER-THE-LESS THE MODEL AGREEMENT IS IMPRESSIVE.

THE ANTICIPATED ATMOSPHERIC SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE PATTERNS MIMIC THE PATTERN THAT WAS OBSERVED ON NOVEMBER 21, 1992. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN VERSUS THE PATTERN BACK IN 1992 IS THAT THE EXPECTED PATTERN SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MORE MOISTURE AND THE EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL JET IS COUPLED OVER THE ARK-LA-MISS. BY THE WAY...THE EVENT OF NOVEMBER 21, 1992 PRODUCED 15 TORNADOES...INCLUDING 2 F4'S...1 F3...AND 6 F2'S OVER THE JACKSON COUNTY WARNING AREA ALONE.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE WILL BE A CONFERENCE CALL SCHEDULED WITH LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT TOMORROW.

Does anyone know anything about the Jackson NWS? Are they often overly alarmist?
 
Originally posted by Andy Wehrle
I dunno...I've never heard an NWS office talk up a severe weather event this hard three or four days out before:

...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS STRONG FOR A HIGH END SEVERE
CONVECTIVE EVENT BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE MAIN CORE OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNPRECEDENTED.

FOR NEARLY 5 DAYS...THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN
ALMOST LOCKSTEP AGREEMENT. THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS...ETA AND UKMENT...ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT. OTHER MODELS...NOGAPS AND DGEX ALSO HAVE SHOWN STRONG AGREEMENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN STRONG AGREEMENT. THE ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN SLIGHTLY...BY A FEW HOURS AND THAT THE SURFACE LOW IS JUST A LITTLE BIT FURTHER SOUTH. NEVER-THE-LESS THE MODEL AGREEMENT IS IMPRESSIVE.

THE ANTICIPATED ATMOSPHERIC SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE PATTERNS MIMIC THE PATTERN THAT WAS OBSERVED ON NOVEMBER 21, 1992. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN VERSUS THE PATTERN BACK IN 1992 IS THAT THE EXPECTED PATTERN SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MORE MOISTURE AND THE EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL JET IS COUPLED OVER THE ARK-LA-MISS. BY THE WAY...THE EVENT OF NOVEMBER 21, 1992 PRODUCED 15 TORNADOES...INCLUDING 2 F4'S...1 F3...AND 6 F2'S OVER THE JACKSON COUNTY WARNING AREA ALONE.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE WILL BE A CONFERENCE CALL SCHEDULED WITH LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT TOMORROW.

Does anyone know anything about the Jackson NWS? Are they often overly alarmist?

I don't know, but that's some very strong wording!
 
Strange. That AFD was written at 2:30 PM CST today, well after 18Z. Filling the cyclone from a 981 MB bomb to 999 MB doesn't seem like very good model agreement to me...
 
Well apparently this storm turned out to be a joke. This just shows how much the models SUCK beyond 60hrs. This is largly due to the horrible network of upper air data over the Pacific. This problem will never be resolved until the network is somehow improved. Unfortunately I don't see how that can happen...... :?
 
Originally posted by Joel Wright
Well apparently this storm turned out to be a joke. This just shows how much the models SUCK beyond 60hrs. This is largly due to the horrible network of upper air data over the Pacific. This problem will never be resolved until the network is somehow improved. Unfortunately I don't see how that can happen...... :?

What are you talking about?! Just take a look at the 180 HR GFS for this 00Z RUN, LOL :lol: :lol:
 
Winter storm forecast

Winter weather forecast for Tuesday noon CST (18Z, 11/23/04) through Wednesday noon CST (18Z, 11/24/04).

Snowfall forecast:
The snowfall will fall over a narrow path during this storm.
1) 4â€-7†snowfall along and within 10mi either side of a Cameron, MO to Champaign, IL line.
2) 1â€-3†snowfall within 30 mi of the same line.
3) Trace to 1†snowfall along and south of a Shenandoah, IA to Osceola, IA to Washington, IA to Le Salle, IL line; and along and north of a Kanasas City to Moberly, MO to Springfield, IL to Decatur, IL line.

Discussion:
The surface low will track roughly along I-44. All recent model runs (12Z and 00Z today) have been in reasonable agreement of the surface low and the 500mb close low (500mb low later opening up into an open wave through 00Z Thursday as it lifts off towards the great lakes) position and timing. There are typically two primary precipitation regimes for such winter storms: First, the WAA isentropic up glide region – for this storm, temperatures will be far too warm for significant winter precipitation and no further discussion will be given to this mode. The second precipitation area is associated with dynamic cooling with the deformation zone. Sufficient cooling will take place throughout the column and in association with this is impressive 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis along and 50 mi N of I-44 in MO between 12Z, Wed and 0Z Thursday. Given 0.5†to 0.75†QPF between 0Z, Wed and 0Z, Thur. along the Cameron, MO to Champaign, IL line; and using an 8 to 1 snow to rain ratio (surface temps 30-35F, 850mb temps falling from +2C to –5C over that period, and 700mb temps falling from –3C to –13C over the same period), expect a narrow path of 4â€-7†snowfall. Snowfall will fall off rapidly to the south as a result of warmer temperatures at the surface and aloft, and also to the north as a result of dry air working in from the north (surface to 700mb).

bill
 
Re: Winter storm forecast

Originally posted by Bill Schintler
Winter weather forecast for Tuesday noon CST (18Z, 11/23/04) through Wednesday noon CST (18Z, 11/24/04).

Snowfall forecast:
The snowfall will fall over a narrow path during this storm.
1) 4â€￾-7â€￾ snowfall along and within 10mi either side of a Cameron, MO to Champaign, IL line.
2) 1â€￾-3â€￾ snowfall within 30 mi of the same line.
3) Trace to 1â€￾ snowfall along and south of a Shenandoah, IA to Osceola, IA to Washington, IA to Le Salle, IL line; and along and north of a Kanasas City to Moberly, MO to Springfield, IL to Decatur, IL line.

bill

I would be careful forecasting that much snow accumulation. I live in Champaign, IL...where you have 4-7 inches forecast...but temperatures over the last week or two have been in the 60s, and even in the mid 70s for a day or two...so the ground is still very warm. I doubt we'll see much snow anyway, looks primarily like a heavy rain event, with snow flurries on the back side.
 
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