Baghdad: ice???!!

[David Draun]

Forecasts for this area are predicting freezing rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Rain/ice accumulations should be around 5 cm. Of course things will melt 100% by mid-morning as -2C rebounds to 14C. However it could be a rough go early. :shock:

 

[David Shohami]

Israel is preparing for one of the most intense storms in the past years!

An upper-level low will sit right above us on Tuesday and Wednesday, along with a surface low of course, with -27 to -28 at 500mb and 2 to 3 at 850mb, Mediterranean temp. at 18, 100% RH across the troposphere, and all of this means that we are going to get intense thunderstorms with hail and very heavy rain. And on Thursday the upper-level low will regenerate and deepen again!

If the forecast doens't change by then, 150-200mm of rain will fall over many areas of Israel from Tuesday until Thursday (and perhaps more on Friday - too far away for me to look at).

David, you should get ready as well because this storm system will affect Iraq starting late Wednesday, it will not be as rainy as Israel of course but still you'll get quite a good storm I believe.

 

[Shaba117]

Wow! never knew that it gets that cold in Iraq. All I knew was that the winter months are the best chance to see any unsettled weather in that region.

-note to self-pack warm uniform clothing....yes, this time next year, I will most likely be over there!

 

[David Draun]

My Brigade S2 has been calling all the units this evening with a severe weather threat for the next 12-24 hours. We are expecting heavy rain, wind, and fog. However, the temps will stay well above 40 during the event, so no ice is expected. There could be a thunderstorm tomorrow.

I have a question for David S. in Israel, is this a Cyprus Low? I've read a climatic narrative on Iraq, and it said such lows are responsible for the rare occurrence of severe convection. I have a 19% chance of thunder tomorrow from Accuweather. I hope it verifies.

 

[David Draun]

Well, so much for the ice forecast. I've got strong insolation with towering cumulus developing here. Looks like it will get to about 65 today. New thunder potential is at 31% I will have another shot at lightning today. 8)

 

[David Shohami]

This is a variation of a Cyprus low. The Cyprus low which is indeed the major rain and snow maker for this part of the Middle East is normally situated between Cyprus and Syria, or right above Syria. This time the surface low has formed south of Cyrpus, close to the coast of Israel.

Thunderstorms have been developing here in Israel for the second day in a row and almost nonstop. Here are a few pictures from yesterday and today:

Lightning over Tel-Aviv

Mammatus over Netanya

Thunderstorm with suspicious structure, south-east of Tel-Aviv

Regarding that last picture, could it be the structure of a supercell? It was definately a thunderstorm (lightning reported) but I have no information regarding rotation (I was not the one who took that picture).

 

[David Draun]

Well let me just tell you all something. I just love when a forecast verifies, and I also looooove a good quality boomer. It didn't look like anything was going to happen after about noon or so. The clouds were gone, and it was warm. At sunset the area overspread with cirrostratus, and the hint of anvil cirrus? At about 7pm, there was a gust of wind. I walked outside and the sky was lighting up! 8) So, I found a good vantage point and vidcapped some ligtning. The storm lasted an hour and had a pretty heavy downpour and possibly some small hail? I couldn't get any CG's but they were definitely there. Good thunder too. 8)

Pictures on the way.....

 

[Marko Korosec]

Wow awesome pics, David! Congrats!

 

[Rebekah LaBar]

I agree, David--those pictures are great, but that lightning shot is especially SWEET!!! I see so many weather photos taken in the U.S., it's awesome to see some from a different part of the world! Thanks for sharing.

Looking forward to seeing some of David D.'s pictures from Iraq!

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

It's great to see nature's fireworks instead of manmade in that part of the world for a change! Everyone stay safe over there.

Aaron

 

[David Shohami]

Thanks for all the comments!