ATLantic named system to form next week?

[Stuart Robinson]

TD2 was really close to becoming called Ana - but it was a wisker away and now the system looks to be sheard over to the west. Overall I still belive that TD3 (to be ) will be the main play

TD2...

"THE DEPRESSION APPEARED TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
STORM A FEW HOURS AGO...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...SINCE ABOUT 18Z THE CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND HAS MOVED FARTHER AWAY FROM THE EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. BASED ON THIS...THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A 30 KT
DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY."

 

[cdcollura]

So much trouble just to get a named system - LOL.

Five years today (aug 13) at this time I was in a cat-4 eyewall (Charley) in Punta Gorda, FL in 2004.

 

[Jason Foster]

So much trouble just to get a named system - LOL.

Five years today (aug 13) at this time I was in a cat-4 eyewall (Charley) in Punta Gorda, FL in 2004.

Ahhhh...the memories. I bet Punta Gorda is having some special event today. I bet they are very happy there is no real tropical threat for them at the moment, but many I'm sure are keeping an eye on the two systems we are all talking about.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Look at the model progs fopr TD3 (to be)

Both GFDL and GFS have it as a majour hurricane in as little as 5 days.

Watch out Florida....

 

[Jason Harris]

Some analysis from Jeff Masters:

There is no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center yet, and this would have to happen before 90L can be named Tropical Depression Three. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two has been. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 90L, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days, which are high enough above the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation to allow some slow development to occur. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave, though they are now less aggressive about intensifying it than they were in earlier runs. The consensus among the reliable HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF models is to bring 90L to point near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands 6 - 8 days from now. The storm could be at hurricane strength by then, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1278

 

[Chris Hayes]

The chance of the GFS verifying that far out is very low but it takes what would be an obvious hurricane into the New Orleans area around day 11 or so. In all likelihood it wont happen (this is the GFS we're talking about) but it is sort of ominous looking.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Now I know next monday (the 24th) is still out in fantasy land on the models but the last two runs of the GFS have hit hitting New Orleans as a Hurricane and the last 3 have had it in the gulf on a similar track. Most of the ensemble members have it turning out to sea or hitting the Carolinas after pounding the Bahamas and the Virgin islands. It is still waaaaaay too early to know if a landfall on the CONUS is really possible but this is certainly worth watching. The big question is if it can stay far enough south to not get pulled away from the coast by a passing trough. Also despite the shear that TD2 is incurring it is starting to get some of its convection back so we still shouldn't totally forget about it either even though I still think it is not going to be our next tropical cyclone.
If it does follow the GFS's foretasted path the possibility of it going nuts is very real as the gulf will be boiling not (not literally) so explosive regrowth would be a likely scenario after the greater Antilles and/or Florida should weaken it a bit.

Now with all that said the most likely forecast that I believe will come true is that it will start to turn after passing over or just north of the Virgin Islands and rake the Bahamas and then move out to see or skirt the Carolinas briefly.

 

[Jeff Duda]

As far as I've noticed, it's only the 06Z (and maybe the 18Z) runs that have been taking this system into New Orleans. I've been watching this on the GFS for a few days now, and all of the 12Z runs have it moving onshore in South Carolina. Also, the storm is finally starting to show up in the GEFS, and that also has it moving onshore in the SC area.

EDIT: The oscillation between hitting New Orleans and SC is less regular than I said above. As of 21Z today (so the 18Z GFS on 081409 hasn't come out yet), 3 of the last 4 runs have it hitting New Orleans (that being the 06, 00, and 18Z runs going back in time 6 hours each), while the current 12Z has it hitting SC. I think it's more the 12Z runs saying it will go east, and the other runs saying it will go more west. Very interesting.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Looking at the day by day trends of the GFS, the upper level flow, if it pans out, would bring the storm into the Gulf region late next week. In other words, ATM there does not seem to be any short or medium term easterly steering trends, etc., in the forecast. This will be interesting to watch over the next few days.

W.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

The 12Z GFS brings the tropical system onto the eastern shores of Florida as early as next Sunday. Should be interesting to see how this pans out. If it does work out the way the GFS shows, looks like a null threat for any other significant severe weather on the main land.

Cheers to a start of the Atlantic season (maybe)!

 

[Jason Harris]

I know everyone is focused on the soon-to-be TD3 but check out TD 2. . "it's back. .. .." and see the track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5-daynl#contents

 

[Randall Marable]

I know everyone is focused on the soon-to-be TD3 but check out TD 2. . "it's back. .. .." and see the track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Maybe this might be a good thing. Maybe TD2 can get strong enough to create just enough of a weakness to pull the trailing system just to the north of the Lesser Antilles. That maybe wishful thinking at this point, however. Plus, it's strength may not even make a difference in the future track of TD3 anyhow.

 

[Jason Harris]

"02L.ANA, TRACK_VIS, 15 AUG 2009 0615"
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html