ATLANTIC: MAJOR HURRICANE EARL

[Jason Foster]

.....spaghetti models[/URL], which are actually trending towards keeping Earl further offshore, while the official NHC track is trending towards bringing it closer to land. Any takers to explain this one to a Tropical layman?

It basically comes down to why forecasting is more than just reading a model. Essentially there are models better than others, and the NHC (or pro forecaster for that matter) understands the strengths and weaknesses of the models and can make a more accurate prediction than the computer itself.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Jason is correct ... As I consider these "models" a very rough guidance and NEVER something to make solid decisions on.

What I am noticing about Earl, is the tendency of the models to trend more and more LEFT with each run. Something that will bring Earl right INTO the Carolinas, rather than merely brushing Cape Hattaras, if that trend continues.

This is making me excited as I got the possibility of THU / FRI off, and I can drive up there to intercept. I'll make that decision in 24-36 hours, though.

 

[Jason Foster]

Good day all,

Jason is correct ... As I consider these "models" a very rough guidance and NEVER something to make solid decisions on.

What I am noticing about Earl, is the tendency of the models to trend more and more LEFT with each run. Something that will bring Earl right INTO the Carolinas, rather than merely brushing Cape Hattaras, if that trend continues.

This is making me excited as I got the possibility of THU / FRI off, and I can drive up there to intercept. I'll make that decision in 24-36 hours, though.

Ah man....you gotta come up, it's a sweet place to be I suspect Suddith will be around too. I pretty know the entire coastline, but it'll be good to scope out the are for future "direct" hits as well. I would like to know where the flooding tends to occur first, in addition to playing with the storm.

I would love it if we get something of a landfall. I'm not holding my breathe, but I am keeping the fingers crossed.

BTW...you bringing the jet ski.....


Add:
BTW....loving the 18z HWRF track!

 

[David Wolfson]

Earl's synoptic environment and track seems to resemble the 'E' hurricane of my early youth south of Boston -- hurricane Edna. See: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/082/mwr-082-09-0267.pdf. If so, the Northeast coast is in for a rocking time in about four days.

 

[Karen Politte]

Karen, some models are better than others and get weighted more. One of the very best(ECMWF) is not even on that plot you linked to, and there are a bunch of models on there that are pretty much useless.

looking at the current track models as well as the hurricane core models(GFDL, HWRF) it looks like NYC area airspace should stay relatively "intact", even on friday. This is based on current track forecasts and jog inshore would create delays closer to your Khan picture on friday. Saturday looks pretty good... maybe a bit of a crosswind delay at EWR but probably not, the storm should have pulled off well to the northeast by then. Its a little early for exact wind/cig/vis forecasts though.

Thanks for that - I guess I am so rusty with my forecast not having participated in chasing for years that I forget how to properly treat models.

I guess if there is a bright side to all of this, it would be that we may catch a glimpse of our first ever hurricane (hubby and I are due to fly into EWR from LIT around 10AM local time and out again towards points more Celtic at around 8PM local time ) - but if Earl is somewhere off the east coast on Saturday morning, then maybe we will see him......even if it is just a glimpse of a spray of white on the horizon for a couple of seconds.

It will be very interesting not only to see what path Earl eventually takes, but also what intensity he ultimately sustains throughout his tour of the Atlantic. NHC discussion mentioned this morning about the possibility of drier air being ingested from the north as he approaches the U.S., and if the track adjusts any further westwards then he will essentially be partially onland for a large part of his journey. I can't help but think that this would have a detrimental affect on the potential intensity as he would ingrain drier air from the continent - at best it may produce a partially open eye which skims just offshore before the whole system is picked up by the upper trough and moved on through.

Hoping my Khan picutre doesn't verify - but thinking it's looking more and more likely with each track revision....

..KP..

 

[Karen Politte]

Latest guidance has slowed Earl down by what is rapidly becoming his daily dose of 6hrs - now progged to finally make landfall on Nova Scotia around 2PM EDT on Saturday. Tropical storm and hurricane watches have been hoisted for the SC/NC/VA coasts as we wait for the stubborn high to move its arse out into the Atlantic.

Northwesterly track motion has been established over the past few hours after wobbling most of the day.

..KP..

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Very cool to see the ERC today. Thats when you know its a beast.

While many may scoff at TWC, I actually like the presentation Brian Norcross did this evening. He broke down the track of Earl with regards to impacts based on the left side of the cone track versus right side of the cone track. The impacts are really night and day difference depending on which side of the cone track Earl decides to take. I think well learn a lot more about that in the next 24. Also something to keep in mind is the US Open thats going on this week in Flushing Meadows, NY. What a disaster that would be if Earl decides to take the left track of the cone.

Also, has anyone noticed the similarities in track of Earl versus Floyd? Check out this link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history.shtml#floyd

Finally, for those interested, I posted a blog on Earl (see link in sig) with respect to ET transition and how that effects the folks up at the Canadian Hurricane Centre. The blog is based on material from a very well done and presented MetEd COMET module on hurricane tracks very similar to that of Earl brushing the east coast.

 

[Jason Foster]

LOL...it took me forever to find the thread since "major" was added to the title...it threw me off.

Yeah TWC has been really good lately. Still a lot of storm stories, etc. but I think they have actually been doing well. I find myself watching more and more often.

OK...so even after a disasterous day today (dead car battery, house loosing power, weather station remote cpu box being full of water (working on bringing it back now), I'm still pretty much on schedule for a noon time departure. I may push it back to after the DC rush, or just take a scenic route since I'll have plenty of time. Either way I'm still 100% a go for this system.

I saw the track shift for a near certain Nova Scotia landfall, but that is just too hellish a drive for what will be a rather hard place to get to, and a much weaker storm. Might not even have much of an eye at that point. If something down the line, like a RI or Long Is. landfall is likely I will continue of the coast (most likely). Link is in my signature.

Don't forget, I'll be on SN as soon as I depart, so you track me there. Once I'm near the action I'll be streaming video (most likely). Not sure with you yet...but at the moment ChaserTV is the front runner. But I'm not particular.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I keep hearing TWC meteorlogists talking about Earl being "the worst/biggest/strongest" hurricane in years (as far back as the 1930s and 1940s). Am I missing something here? I believe a hurricane of that intensity can generally be found in that vicinity and that general track at one point or another just about every year. What about this hurricane is so historic?

 

[rdale]

I just watched the tropical update and nothing like that was mentioned, plus it makes no sense... Either 1) you weren't watching their meteorologists and heard some weathercasters trying to ad-lib or 2) just misunderstood?

 

[Jeff Duda]

I don't remember exactly who it was, but it was hosts every time I heard it.

 

[Justin Wiley]

That's weird Jeff because Stephanie Abrams isn't on til the morning shift.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

Earl wave height's & Buoy 41046 Data

Earl wave height's & Buoy 41046 just north of the center of Earl should pass very close to this Bouy over the next six hours.

 

[MClarkson]

Keep in mind as the storm speeds up into the westerlies, especially regarding cape Cod and Canada, the difference between its strong right side and its weak left side will become even more pronounced than a typical hurricane. And its going to be pretty tough to get on the right side of this one... Halifax for a low end cane?

 

[MClarkson]

41046is going to take a pretty solid hit. Its pretty rare to see a cane hit a working buoy that directly. Pretty cool.

According to the NHC location of 0600z, the center is about 25nm to the south-southeast... the 0550z ob showed 64G80 knots and a significant wave height of 42 feet!

Since the wave height is an average... there are some higher waves than that.

EDIT: I also like the "very steep" added on to the wave height data. I wonder if the buoy will survive?