ATLANTIC: MAJOR HURRICANE EARL

[Chance Metz]

Yeah I could be wrong but then again forcasting the weather will never be perfect. Anyways earl is about to slam the Leeward island. Actually looks better now then he did a few hours ago. Still lined right up wth Puerto Rico too, actually a bit south of the island still.

 

[rdale]

Yeah I could be wrong but then again forcasting the weather will never be perfect.

Of course it won't be perfect. But if your "forecast" consists nothing more than persistence and/or going against the NHC "just because" -- then it has no value over time. It's better to just remain silent and learn by observing other forecasters, and by doing your own research. But slamming the professional forecasters and saying that accuracy is getting worse, when the data PROVES that path forecasts are getting better, is not the best option to go with.

 

[B Ozanne]

A better argument would be that a course change of just a few degrees now can drastically alter the five day forecast. Which has happened many times in the past. But that slight shift is just as likely to be east not west.

Either way, I've been around long enough to know that five days is a lifetime when it comes to hurricane forecasts.

 

[Marcus Opitz]

I place little confidence in models 5 days or so out. It will most likely recurve....However, timing and smaller movements early in the forecast can translate into a larger deviation down the road. The "cone of error" is still uncomfortably close to the east coast. Perhaps in 48 hours a more "solid" and confident forecast will be known.

 

[MClarkson]

The 00Z GFS is significantly closer inshore, essentially scraping the capes and Nova Scotia. Lets wait and see what the next Euro has to say... Also keep in mind that the coast is still on the weak side... but this storm is becoming more interesting.

Deep convection and very cold cloud tops were increasing before the satellite was eclipsed. Also a possible warming of an eye feature was visible. We should be getting a new view soon.

I was also glancing at the upper level pattern in the 3/4 day time frame. The upper anti-cyclone/outflow from the GFS/NAM looks outstanding... the GFS has a bit of SWerly shear but in all other quadrants looks great. NAM is even better. SSTs from buoys show waters >85F south of about 30N, just above 80F off Cape Hatteras and in the 70F ballpark off LI/Cape Cod.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Earl's eye wall is starting to come into view on TJUA (San Juan, Puerto Rico). It looks like the U.S.V.I. is just barely staying out of the hurricane force winds. I used to frequent St John and once earl passes by I will call my friends on the island and see how well they weathered it.

 

[Marcus Opitz]

BTW, did anybody get a chance to chase this? I would think it would have been difficult to get down there to the islands on such short notice.

 

[Zack Hargrove]

What you are saying is basically correct; with some caveats. A very strong hurricane's outflow has been known to slightly erode the bottom of a mid level trough a little as it approaches, sending the track maybe 6-12 hours further west than expected; but the hurricane will still get picked up and turned northward by that mid level trough. This scenario was actually discussed a couple of days ago (concerning Danielle I think) in the NHC discussion of that storm.

You have assumed that a mid level trough (steering levels) is always accompanied by an upper level (200 mb or so) trough above it, with the same configuration of isobars and wind field. This is not always the case. And as noted it is the flow up higher that would shear a storm, not the mid level flow that steers it.
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Meanwhile, back in the jungle:

Rich... thank you for the comments. You are correct, I was using some assumptions as I was trying to address generalized tropical features with generalized mid-latitude features. My main point was that these track forecasts that the NHC comes up with are not just made from computer models. They are a big tool, but there are so many other meteorological observations that these guys use. Also, the track forecasts have gotten very good over the past decade or so. The skill is much higher, and I was just appalled at the suggestion that our forecast skill was better in the past since that suggestion is completely laughable and not supported by data or research. Could Earl still hit the coast? Of course... I was only looking at the data and the mid latitude features at that certain time. I do know, however, the track can be altered significantly if the storm even turns North a few hours too late. From my experience, this storm still looks like it may JUST miss the US coast... but it is still obviously too far out to give an official forecast.

 

[Warren Faidley]

The biggest issue with chasing / forecasting a hurricane that skims a coastline is the somewhat unpredictable wobbling / expansion / collapse / replacement of the eyewall. Just 50-150 miles can make a big difference in the intensity of winds / storm surge and the onshore vs. offshore effects. The most recent example of this was with Hurricane Isabel.

W.

 

[Mike Smith]

One thing in Earl's favor is the unusually warm water off the northeast coast of the U.S. See: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

 

[Jason Foster]

Well, I'm 100% go (under the current forecast) to intercept as much as possible along the coast of NC. Still some unknowns for me, like if I can take the Delmarva option (driving down along the coast of Mayland, Virginia and N.Carolina) due to the possibility of the Chesapeake Bay Bridge/Tunnel closure.

I will also attempt to stream a lot, however my current testing under Severe Studios hasn't been going well, I will use the old (preferred until they started doing tons of commercials) livestream.com system.

I will have to watch any flooding/surge (if any) because my current chase vehicle never received the swapped out suspension system and I'm still set-up in performance mode (.9 in. drop from factory ride ht.).

I should be in the VA Beach or NC/VA border area ~ 10am Thursday morning. Of course adjustments will be made for storm speed and routing. Mark Ellinwood also looks to be intercepting but on a tighter schedule due to work obligations.

It probably isn't going to be all that exciting, doesn't look to be a full eyewall intercept, but I never have done a pure surf/beach erosion outting, and it's very local chase for me, so very little investment (less than $100 in gas....I won't be spending the money on hotels). No market with the tons of media that will be there & plenty of i(media) video and photos that'll be pumped out of there for free. This is also partly to satisfy my tropical cravings as we could be looking at a near repeat of 2009 landfall wise (keeping fingers crossed though).


Keep an eye out on my twitter account for details and video/pics once I depart.

 

[Karen Politte]

The 5PM EDT NHC update moves the forecast track cone further west and slows it's forward movement by about 6hrs - Earl is now forecasted (at best GUESS) to make landfall over Nova Scotia around midday Saturday. It's very impressive to see the forecasted track change so drastically - just when Earl is about to crash into the eastern seaboard and give NC a black eye, it is forecasted to get picked up and swept away very quickly by the much-heralded trough. It will be very interesting to watch if that actually happens.

I was a little confused to see the newest spaghetti models, which are actually trending towards keeping Earl further offshore, while the official NHC track is trending towards bringing it closer to land. Any takers to explain this one to a Tropical layman?

I don't tend to spend hours and hours analyzing Tropical weather - even when it is due to impact this country. My interest, however, this time around has been fuelled by the fact that we are due to be flying into-and-out-of KEWR (Newark) this coming Saturday, 9/4/10, and let's just say that I wasn't expecting to have a hurricane to contend with. I put together a very involved graphic that combines Earl's track map with aviation related interests that some may be interested in:

EARL

That pretty much sums up my disgust.

..KP..

 

[NickSeyour]

Have released a new discussion here
http://stormtopia.com/Earl-and-Fiona.php

 

[Jason Boggs]

Here is the latest radar image of Earl.

 

[MClarkson]

Karen, some models are better than others and get weighted more. One of the very best(ECMWF) is not even on that plot you linked to, and there are a bunch of models on there that are pretty much useless.

looking at the current track models as well as the hurricane core models(GFDL, HWRF) it looks like NYC area airspace should stay relatively "intact", even on friday. This is based on current track forecasts and jog inshore would create delays closer to your Khan picture on friday. Saturday looks pretty good... maybe a bit of a crosswind delay at EWR but probably not, the storm should have pulled off well to the northeast by then. Its a little early for exact wind/cig/vis forecasts though.