B Ozanne
EF5
I believe that. They probably were not talking about Earl now, but Earl as it approaches the northeast. It has been a very long time since a major hurricane has tracked near or within the 40/70 benchmark
I believe that. They probably were not talking about Earl now, but Earl as it approaches the northeast. It has been a very long time since a major hurricane has tracked near or within the 40/70 benchmark
Jason Harris
EF5
I didn't catch the exact context, but just now listening to a series of quotations from locals on the East Coast, there was the date "1938" raised as the last time a hurricane of significance came in. This came up right before the interview with FEMA administrator Craig Fumgate, about 6:30 AM. Winds now at 125.
I've got a question for people who have taken note of the hurricane winds probability table from NHC: Cape Hatteras is at 21%--how does that compare with percentages the NHC has put out when mets and chasers considered a landfall "likely"? In other words, do those probabilities indeed go up to numbers like 60, 70, 80, 95, etc.? And how accurate historically have these probabilities been?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT2+shtml/010841.shtml?
cedwards
EF5
Didn't you know that every hurricane that is happening NOW is always "stronger", "bigger", and "badder" than anything in the past.
The same goes for tornadoes. If you are seeing it now, it is always the biggest, hugest, most violent, most awesome tornado ever. even if it is just a little EF1, but you are witnessing it now, it beats any EF5 from the past.
The same goes for tornadoes. If you are seeing it now, it is always the biggest, hugest, most violent, most awesome tornado ever. even if it is just a little EF1, but you are witnessing it now, it beats any EF5 from the past.
B Ozanne
EF5
Only bad things are worse now than in the past, but good things aren't like they used to be.
Looks like models are trending east again. Too bad for me, but good for everyone else since nobody around here is doing any preparation for a cat 3 near miss. It's been 24 years since one of my greatest events in weather history (Hurricane Gloria)...looks like it is going to be at least one more.
Karen Politte
EF5
Where do you see that? All guidance from what I can see right now is keeping it on track for a Nova Scotia landfall or a little further west of there..
..KP..
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
Nova Scotia should be fine for a landfall. NC will be missed, so anyone planning to chase there (including me) are currently finializing / reconsidering chase plans right now (for more of a NO go then go).
Nova Scotia should be fine for a landfall. NC will be missed, so anyone planning to chase there (including me) are currently finializing / reconsidering chase plans right now (for more of a NO go then go).
B Ozanne
EF5
East or right over the 40/70. No major shift though.
MClarkson
EF5
the latest GFS is inshore again and tracks the center near or over cape cod/islands
Too bad nantucket is so annoying to get to.
Too bad nantucket is so annoying to get to.
George Kourounis
EF2
I will be intercepting Earl in Nova Scotia. This will be my third cyclone there (Noel & Bill previously). I'm departing Toronto first thing in Thursday morning and will be in position for the landfall on Saturday morning. I'm expecting some serious waves along some of the rocky coastline southwest of Halifax.
Earl should undergo post tropical transition shortly after reaching Nova Scotia.
George Kourounis
www.stormchaser.ca
Earl should undergo post tropical transition shortly after reaching Nova Scotia.
George Kourounis
www.stormchaser.ca
Jeremy Gilchrist
I will be heading out to the Manteo area in NC tomorrow.
MClarkson
EF5
looking very healthy on IR sat now that it appears that ERC is done with. Anyone know why we have fewer planes than normal for this storm? In years past an immanent threat to the US would get 5 or 6 planes assigned to it per day.
for the last couple days we have had 3 assigned to Earl...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?
I know one flight is being sent after Fiona, but still. Its a nice cat 4 off the US coast and we have a 10 hour gap in recon.
for the last couple days we have had 3 assigned to Earl...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?
I know one flight is being sent after Fiona, but still. Its a nice cat 4 off the US coast and we have a 10 hour gap in recon.
Chance Metz
EF2
This looks like a bad one. It looks to be getting stronger by the hour and will only weeken because it will be close to land up the whole eastern seaboard. Let's hope this is not another Katrina in the making.
Stuart Robinson
EF5
Chance,
Take a peek at a water vaper loop around Earl right now - The is some very dry air ahead of Earl - some of which is now actually wrapping around and being sucked into Earl. Normally this will distrupt and weaken a storm quite a lot.
Do not be surprised to see this as a CAT2 storm at the closest point to the outer banks.
Take a peek at a water vaper loop around Earl right now - The is some very dry air ahead of Earl - some of which is now actually wrapping around and being sucked into Earl. Normally this will distrupt and weaken a storm quite a lot.
Do not be surprised to see this as a CAT2 storm at the closest point to the outer banks.
B Ozanne
EF5
Hey, you can get to Nantucket very easily on the ferry, you just can't bring your car. Scooter rental?
Looks like the official track has shifted back to the west of 40/70 and possibly putting the outer banks in hurricane conditions. My area is under a TS watch.
Looks like everyone around here has a bit of "point" syndrome and is not looking at the size of the storm.
Ed Boik
EF1
The WV seems to be showing the air getting a slight bit wetter on the west. Also, the core of the storm has tightened up quite a bit and looks more impressive than it has in the last 24 hours. I'd expect the next discussion to indicate minor strengthening and forecast for weakening after that. It's made it around the high and it is already moving it more northerly. I think that NC and New England are going to get scraped (center greater than 50mi offshore) by Earl but will avoid a landfall. It'll pass the outer banks around 120mph and Cape Cod around 100mph.
