ATLANTIC: MAJOR HURRICANE EARL

[Alex Lamers]

Central pressure down to 932mb now, and a dropsonde released in the eastern eyewall appears to have recorded a 154 knot wind at 905mb, which would be a little bit above the surface.

It certainly looks healthy at the moment, and the pressure has dropped like a rock in the past 6 hours. It was crossing over a nice deep, warm eddy this afternoon. Looks like it has taken a little bit of a northward jog recently, though. The shear across Earl seems to have relaxed a bit during the day as it has been able to build a nice solid core of convection around the southern rim of the eye.

I really hope the models are right that this one stays offshore. With such a large wind field and strong winds in the eyewall, it's got to be building up a pretty big surge out over the open water.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

That "elusive" and "inaccessible" right-front quadrant. Accessible only by airplane or boat (I doubt the latter)!

I know it looks so good ... But I am calling off my NC trip for a number of reasons.

1). LEFT side impacting NC outer banks in best-case.

2). Hard to find any substantial observation point / police blockades (but those are the LEAST of my worries).

3). Landfall (oops, I meant closest-approach), or whatever happens - Will be at NIGHT (that sucks)!

4). Weakening system due to dry air possible in 24 hours or so.

I hate to burst anyones bubble, but I just do not see this worthwhile chasing ... I WOULD have gone if the storm came near NC at 2 PM (the NIGHT chase was the kill-joy for me).

Anyway, good luck to those who head out. I know several people up there already.

 

[rdale]

Let's hope this is not another Katrina in the making.

Seriously? Did you mean to post that as forecast insight? What do you see that resembles Katrina? What cities along the east coast have the same sort of infrastructure and transportation issues that New Orleans had?

 

[Justin Wiley]

This looks like a bad one. It looks to be getting stronger by the hour and will only weeken because it will be close to land up the whole eastern seaboard.

Earl is peaking in intensity as we speak. It will be heading on the downward trend beginning about now through the next 12 hours. The dry air influx, southwesterly wind shear by the trough and the eventual cooler waters farther north will all cause it to weaken.

Let's hope this is not another Katrina in the making.

You really didn't make that comparison, did you?

 

[Jason Foster]

It's so nice here in Nags Head, NC...it's crazy.

Just saying...that is all.

 

[Chris Strahan]

Jason... I am headed that way today. Will keep an eye out for you..... ooo bad pun there, sorry

 

[Patrick Martin]

Too bad nantucket is so annoying to get to.

You've obviously never been to Nantucket or Martha's Vineyard. It will be far easier to get to Nantucket (vs the outer bank which be locked down most likely), and IMO a much better place in the ConUS to get close to Earl. A simple ferry ride out of Hyannis or Woods Hole and you are at Nantucket and there are some wonderful vantage points to experience the effects of Earl on the SE side of Nantucket.

And btw, you can take your car.

 

[Kevin C]

Any insights specific to New Jersey as to what we might see from this? Seriously considering going to either Cape May or Sandy Hook to experience Earl, but don't want to waste gas if he tracks well enough east and all we get is rough surf and some minor coastal flooding.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Jason, Chris, I have a hotel room on the second floor of the Comfort Inn that is on the south part of the island (Baxton, NC). I am on my way with Brian Emfinger and if you guys want we can ALL use it as base camp.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

Earl Current Wave Heights

Earl Current Wave Hights.

Credit Below: From Dr. Masters

Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 99 Terrajoules for Earl, at 9:30am EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 4.9 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a similar destructive power, 4.9 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules, higher than Category 4 Earl's.

 

[MClarkson]

Those ferries to Nantucket definetly make it a chase problem. They will probably shut down at some point in the near future.

 

[Jim Bishop]

You've obviously never been to Nantucket or Martha's Vineyard. It will be far easier to get to Nantucket (vs the outer bank which be locked down most likely), and IMO a much better place in the ConUS to get close to Earl. A simple ferry ride out of Hyannis or Woods Hole and you are at Nantucket and there are some wonderful vantage points to experience the effects of Earl on the SE side of Nantucket.

And btw, you can take your car.

Well said. Nantucket may be a chaser's best shot at getting close to Earl's eyewall. From a chasing perspective, it's unfortunate that Earl's western eyewall will barely brush by Nantucket -- while weakening --- after dark. We can thank that trough moving through the Great Lakes for Earl's eventual turn to the northeast. So, certainly not the ideal hurricane chase scenario. But, it's an experience nonetheless for anyone that does venture out there.

Good luck to anyone chasing Earl along the eastern seaboard. Please stay safe.

 

[Patrick Martin]

Hy-Line Ferry from is suspending service Friday with the exception of the high speed ferry which will run on a trip by trip basis.
Steamship Authority has no current information, but I can't imagine them trying to run on Friday.

Unless Earl makes a direct impact to the Cape, ferry's will likely be back up and running no later than Sunday, perhaps even later Saturday depending on the speed/track of Earl.

Edit: An interesting point is that the ferry from Orient Point NY (eastern Long Island) to New London is also cancelling all service on Friday. The Bridgeport/Port Jefferson ferry however has no indication of service interruption on Friday.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Brett Adair is updating my site every 2 hours for me. Each update will have info on the progression of my chase along the NC barrier islands and some forecast thoughts.

HERE is the link: http://www.SvrWxChaser.com

 

[Patrick Martin]

Well said. Nantucket may be a chaser's best shot at getting close to Earl's eyewall. From a chasing perspective, it's unfortunate that Earl's western eyewall will barely brush by Nantucket -- while weakening --- after dark. We can thank that trough moving through the Great Lakes for Earl's eventual turn to the northeast. So, certainly not the ideal hurricane chase scenario. But, it's an experience nonetheless for anyone that does venture out there.

Good luck to anyone chasing Earl along the eastern seaboard. Please stay safe.

Makes me wish that I was back in CT this week, vs my planned trip in a few weeks. If I was there, I would have been looking really hard at Nantucket or perhaps Chatham.

Jim - I used to work in Shelton when I lived in CT. Hope you like it! There was a great little pizza joint in the center of Huntington. Wish I could remember the name.