Patrick Martin
EF4
On the phone with Chris Strahan. He says thanks for the offer. He is presently up in Nags Head and setting up shop just south of the hwy 12 and hwy 64 intersection.
On the phone with Chris Strahan. He says thanks for the offer. He is presently up in Nags Head and setting up shop just south of the hwy 12 and hwy 64 intersection.
Jim Bishop
EF4
Ah, don't sweat it. This storm would probably just be disappointing, especially considering it's gonna be after dark up here. The eye is gonna pass to the southeast of Nantucket.
Small world! Shelton/Huntington (I live between the two, technically) is nice. It reminds me of the South. Kinda like the TX or OK of CT.
Robert Dewey
EF5
Checking the NWS forecasts, I'm not seeing any zones along the shore with predicted sustained surface winds of AOA 74MPH. Why is there a hurricane warning? Is there really that big of a disparity between the NHC and NWS?
Moderators: If this is too far off topic, feel free to move it to a separate discussion.
Moderators: If this is too far off topic, feel free to move it to a separate discussion.
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
It's because the hurricane forced winds extend 70 miles from the center, and on the RIGHT side, whereas the LEFT side is a mere half that. This weak side is facing the outer banks of NC.
With a hurricane 50 miles (closest approach) off to the east, those winds on the west side probably will NOT "touch" the coast.
The NHC has a "better safe than sorry" thing with warnings, and they need to cover a lot of "a--"'s, if you know what I mean.
The NWS looks at more detailed wind flows, and that would indeed be more accurate / localized than NHC's "broader" warnings.
It's because the hurricane forced winds extend 70 miles from the center, and on the RIGHT side, whereas the LEFT side is a mere half that. This weak side is facing the outer banks of NC.
With a hurricane 50 miles (closest approach) off to the east, those winds on the west side probably will NOT "touch" the coast.
The NHC has a "better safe than sorry" thing with warnings, and they need to cover a lot of "a--"'s, if you know what I mean.
The NWS looks at more detailed wind flows, and that would indeed be more accurate / localized than NHC's "broader" warnings.
rdale
EF5
That doesn't jive with the NWS in the HLSMHX just issued
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE OUTER BANKS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
That is about right, as most NWS offices will agree with the fact of the hurricane forced wind envelope "touching" the coast. It's gonna be close, but gusts to hurricane forced are very likely.
I also noticed the weakening trend continuing. Now a Cat-2 (110 MPH as per 8 PM advisory). The satellite presentation changed DRAMATICALLY since this morning.
Above: Banner from my front page of my site, showing the amazing satellite "degeneration". LOL I HATE shear (unless it's in the plains in May).
That is about right, as most NWS offices will agree with the fact of the hurricane forced wind envelope "touching" the coast. It's gonna be close, but gusts to hurricane forced are very likely.
I also noticed the weakening trend continuing. Now a Cat-2 (110 MPH as per 8 PM advisory). The satellite presentation changed DRAMATICALLY since this morning.
Above: Banner from my front page of my site, showing the amazing satellite "degeneration". LOL I HATE shear (unless it's in the plains in May).
MClarkson
EF5
Looking at the radar it looks like the left eyewall will stay offshore. It would take a significant western wobble for that to change.
The METAR site to watch for the moment is KHSE, which is fairly exposed in the outer banks.
Currently gusting into the 40 knot range.
The METAR site to watch for the moment is KHSE, which is fairly exposed in the outer banks.
Currently gusting into the 40 knot range.
Robert Dewey
EF5
I'd be absolutely shocked to see a 74MPH sustained surface report anywhere over land.
rdale
EF5
Wash your mouth out with soap for saying such things
Interesting that a Hurricane Warning is in effect because those winds are expected, yet the hurricane wind plot says 0% for all but a sliver of 5% chance for the islands.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/025217.shtml?hwind120#contents
Not too often that a 5% chance means that you "expect" it...
Josh Morgerman
EF4
What a dreadful demise with this one-- not just the collapse of the cyclone's core, but also the veering away from the coast. It must have been rather frustrating for anyone who took the trouble to get down there for a chase.
Despite this, the system's been quite well-behaved: the models seemed to have a good handle on it the last few days, and it looks like the NHC nailed this one in terms of the forecast.
Despite this, the system's been quite well-behaved: the models seemed to have a good handle on it the last few days, and it looks like the NHC nailed this one in terms of the forecast.
Zack Hargrove
EF2
I don't know. Three of my classmates went and chased on the banks and they recorded a couple 70+ mph wind gusts and saw some really crazy flooding and storm surge. It probably wasn't the best storm in the world to chase, but from what I saw, they had moderate success.
Josh Morgerman
EF4
Yeah, I guess it depends what you're looking for. If they enjoyed it, then it was most certainly worth it for them.
Jason Caster
There once was a man from Nantucket
Who kept all his chasing gear in a bucket
The hurricane came
Filled the bucket with rain
And lightning had also just struckit
Sorry guys couldn't help it.
Earl is pretty much a rain dumper at this point.
Down to category 1 and weakening fast.
Jason Foster
I'd chase a cat.1 even if it was weakening. I kinda did since that is in the range of what I got on the OBX....LOL.
Great chase in the end. I'm pretty damn sure I saw just over that hurricane force wind threshold....and maybe a little more. Trip was fun, profitable, and quick.
Hey Chris. Guess what sound I already started hearing by the time I got home!
Jeremy Gilchrist
Here is video I took from my chase to Nag's Head, NC:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKQn4mof_zY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKQn4mof_zY
