ATLANTIC: MAJOR HURRICANE EARL

[MClarkson]

Well I am almost interested in Earl... Looking at the GFS/GFDL/HWRF/ECMWF they all recurve the storm early enough to miss, although the left outlier GFS is close enough to the US to keep an eye on. Or maybe not... the odds of a US impact are rather remote. Looks like it will stay just offshore of the island chain too. The ECWMF track for the next storm in line looks more interesting... we will see how the long range trends evolve that.

 

[Chance Metz]

Too close for my comfort. It just misses Puerto Rico as a major hurricane and if it does not change it's forward movemt to the northeast North Carolina or Virginia will get hit head on.

 

[Chris Vagasky]

His name is Earl...

 

[NickSeyour]

Best beach weekend in a long time with warm ridge building w/ a heat wave in the east ... to bad 10-20 foot waves will also be in the coastal picture

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

... to bad 10-20 foot waves will also be in the coastal picture

Unless you are in south Florida ... The Bahamas "wave shadow" keeps seas here like a lake, while 20 foot waves batter the US east coast from NY to North FL.

Surfers HATE the Bahamas ;-)

 

[Chris Allington]

Earl is looking alot better this afternoon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

 

[Chance Metz]

Looks like a close call for th east coast right now.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Chance, NHC shows the forecasted Hurricane force winds to stay out over the ocean and by the time it does get close to the north east part of the US it may weaken do to cooler waters. I am not seeing much of a threat to the US right now except for big waves. I think the next Tropical Storm expected to form behind Earl will have a better chance at a US landfall. That is just my oppinion though.

 

[rdale]

Looks like a close call for th east coast right now.

What are you seeing that would make the NHC's curve forecast wrong?

 

[Chance Metz]

The fact that it is still going almost due west and has to suddenly turn northwest just to miss hitting Puerto Rico head on. Until I see it make a sharp turn I am doubting the offical forcast.

 

[rdale]

The fact that it is still going almost due west and has to suddenly turn northwest just to miss hitting Puerto Rico head on. Until I see it make a sharp turn I am doubting the offical forcast.

So are you saying it'll just keep going due west? I'm not sure what would impact the Carolinas unless my map is wrong...

 

[Zack Hargrove]

The fact that it is still going almost due west and has to suddenly turn northwest just to miss hitting Puerto Rico head on. Until I see it make a sharp turn I am doubting the offical forcast.

So are you just going to ignore the trough/front and all other mid-latitude features that will steer the system? A system isn't going to magically just "break through" a trough. All track guidance is fairly confident about the solution. While we don't do very well with intensity forecast, track forecast has gotten very accurate. When you see a cluster of 10-15 models agreeing on one basic track, you're usually not going to see much else. Not to mention, even most of the out lier models have the hurricane missing the NC/VA coast at this point. These track forecasts aren't just guesses. If I'm missing something, please enlighten me, but all I'm hearing is a guess from you without you addressing any of the actual meteorological conditions. It would take something pretty drastic to make this thing get close enough to do anything more than cause some high surf.

 

[Chance Metz]

No but it can push the trough out of the way now can't it? That is if the hurricane is strong enough. What would you think if the trough goes inland out to say Ohio and the storm then comes right onshore. I do not use computer models to tell me exactly where a strom might go. Half the time they are ether wrong or show sometihng that is not going to happen. sure they are a useful tool but so is actually going outside and watching the sky and akaing direct measurements. That is how forcasting used to be and I would argue that forcasting was much more accurate in the past as well.

 

[Zack Hargrove]

No but it can push the trough out of the way now can't it? That is if the hurricane is strong enough. What would you think if the trough goes inland out to say Ohio and the storm then comes right onshore. I do not use computer models to tell me exactly where a strom might go. Half the time they are ether wrong or show sometihng that is not going to happen. sure they are a useful tool but so is actually going outside and watching the sky and akaing direct measurements. That is how forcasting used to be and I would argue that forcasting was much more accurate in the past as well.

Not exactly sure what you're trying to say. A mid latitude system is a stronger force than a tropical cyclone. There is no way a tropical system can push a trough backwards. And even if it does push through a trough, which will not happen, the sheer from the trough will tear the system apart. You say you don't rely on models and thats good.... but when it comes to TRACK models... they are rarely wrong when clustered together that close... and def. not wrong "half the time" like you propose. Think you need to look at some basic tropical weather characteristics a little more. I'm not trying to be rude, but the things you propose just aren't sound. Also, how do you figure that forecasting used to be better? All data and evidence suggests that forecasting is exponentially more accurate than it has ever been. Our forecast skill dwarfs what we could do in the past.

 

[rdale]

That is how forcasting used to be and I would argue that forcasting was much more accurate in the past as well.

Your argument is horribly (factually) wrong, and ignorant of all the research which says otherwise. But we're getting OT now. I'd suggest you look at tropical forecasting as you are really not prepared to be doing this - here's a good link.

http://www.meted.ucar.edu/dl_courses/tropical_wmo/