evan anderson
EF0
Feeling like I am repeating Invest 95. Perhaps more favorable this time for development?
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ATLANTIC: Hurricane Rina
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evan anderson
EF0
From this morning's FL Division of Emergency Management:
Summary:
· A stationary area of low pressure, designated 96L, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms along the Nicaraguan coastline.
· Although surface pressures are continuing to slowly fall, the thunderstorm activity associated with the low have not become any more organized.
· Environmental conditions surrounding the system are impeding any development. An upper level low, currently to the northeast of the system, is producing moderate wind shear and pushing dry air into 96L’s vicinity. In addition, land interaction is also slowing any development of this system.
· Environmental conditions may become more conducive for development in a couple of days as the upper level low lifts toward the north and allows the wind shear to decrease over the system. 96L remains over very warm waters in the Caribbean Sea.
· 96L is in a region of light steering currents. A high pressure ridge over Mexico and the upper level low to the northeast of the system are inhibiting any northerly motion. This will cause 96L to remain nearly stationary for the next couple of days.
· After being in relatively good agreement yesterday afternoon, the computer models are again in disagreement on the evolution of this system. The most common scenario the models depict is 96L tracking slowly to the north and eventually dissipating over Central America or the Caribbean Sea as the storm interacts with dry air over the Gulf of Mexico and land. However, there are still a few models that show the system moving into the Yucatan Channel as a tropical depression or storm 5-7 days from now.
· The National Hurricane Center has placed a 60% chance of development into a tropical cyclone for this system over the next two days.
· It is still too early to determine any potential impacts from this system over the mainland U.S. or Florida.
· Elsewhere, a broad area of low pressure currently located several hundred miles southeast of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity has continued to decrease in both areal coverage and intensity.
· Environmental conditions around this system are currently unfavorable, as wind shear is high in the region. Development, if any, will be slow to occur as this area moves slowly toward the west-northwest.
· The National Hurricane Center placed a 10% chance of development of this region into a tropical system over the next couple of days.
More information can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Saturday evening.
Benton Farmer
Meteorologist Intern
Florida Division of Emergency Management
Keith Wilson
EF2
There is a ton of dry air and sheer over most of the Gulf right now and I don't see it relaxing anytime soon. This may end up getting shunted over toward SW Florida, but it is going to have a tough time getting it's act together.
cdcollura
EF5
Probably too much shear / dry air for development.
Also probably more supercells / tornadoes for FL ;-)
Josh Morgerman
EF4
I'm wondering if this could be interesting if it stays down in the Caribbean and affects Belize or Mexico's Yucatan. I think they're going to initiate advisories on it this afternoon-- so it'll be interesting to see what the NHC thinks it's going to do.
evan anderson
EF0
Development quicker than I can get the Forum thread updated to Hurricane Rina...
HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1815 UTC MON OCT 24 2011
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN BELIZE...THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 83.0W AT 24/1815Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
Josh Morgerman
EF4
Looking interesting, for sure.
cdcollura
EF5
Last chance for the 2011 season in the Atlantic...
I'm headed to Cancun Wednesday (10/26) evening, returning Fri / Sat.
Most likely intercepting a major daytime landfalling hurricane mid-day Thursday (if my flight don't get cancelled)!
Josh, let me know if you'll be out there...Last edited by a moderator:
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
LOL ... Whoa is me ... Trip cancelled after seeing the 11:45 update and weakened to < 85 MPH with "and that may be Generous" at 982 mb.
Funds from American booked for Denver Feb 16-19 so nothing was lost (got a voucher too).
Irene "blew" hard ... But 2011 has been a load of wank since...Last edited by a moderator:
Josh Morgerman
EF4
Hey, guys. Call me dumb, but I went for it, and I'm in Playa del Carmen. I agree, the nosedive this morning really sucked, and I almost canceled-- but I decided to stay the course.
If it's a bust, whatever-- I enjoy a few days in Playa del Carmen. I just couldn't ignore NHC forecasts of a major on the Yucatan. This is my favorite turf on the planet, and October is my favorite month. To risk missing a potential Roxanne redux was just unacceptable. I would rather bust badly on a turkey then watch from California as a 100-kt cyclone come ashore on the Yucatan. Couldn't live with that.
So, I'm here. If it manages to come ashore as a hurricane, I consider it a win-- because it'll be during the day, and there are plenty of roads and towns here-- meaning it'll be possible to really finetune my position as the cyclone closes in.
After free-falling this afternoon, it's looking better this evening-- and the BZE radar shows a surprisingly good core structure: http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/
I'm here, so I just gotta make the most of it!
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
Wow ... That really sucks for you, Josh.
At least the "bust" is occurring in Paradise.
Rina continues it's demise and weakening trend, now a tropical storm as of 11 AM NHC advisory on 10/27. This is a rapid change from the Belize radar last evening (no more eye and banding now, the center is exposed and convection is sheared NE of the center).
The storm also appears moving more N and should come close to Cozumel just after dark. I am hoping Josh at least gets the right-side of the thing, but now even that opportunity is diminishing.
Josh Morgerman
EF4
Hey, Chris--
It's no biggie-- it is what it is. Not every cyclone can be an awesome surprise like Jova. And it's always nice to come to the Yucatan.
Given the exact same set of circumstances in the future-- a strong hurricane in the NW Caribbean in October, heading for the Yucatan-- I will make the exact same decision and chase it. For whatever reason, Mexican landfalls have become my specialty, and I've had a lot of wins down here. Like I said, the possibility of missing a solid Yucatan landfall disturbs me a lot more than coming down here for a total turkey like Rina.
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Josh Morgerman
EF4
Here's my chase report-- originally posted on American Weather:
Back at the hotel. It's raining again, but there's electricity and I'm glad to be back in a warm room.
This was a fun little chase. No, of course it wasn't worth coming from California for it-- obviously not-- but, hey, I was here and I made the most of it. Rina sucked but the chase was a success. I wanted to punch the center and that's what I did. I got right in it-- a bull's eye-- and collected what I believe are valuable and relevant data. (Yeah, I'm patting myself on that back-- I've gotta do something after coming from California to chase a sheared TS.)
It was cool to really observe/document the component parts of a tropical cyclone as it passed right over my location. And unlike Don, Rina actually did still have an intact structure and observable tropical-cyclone components: a sharp pressure dip, a tight wind core (with front side and backside), a central calm bookended by periods of rain/wind, and a noticeable directional shift in the wind after the center passed and the pressure started rising. (We had none of these things in Don.) Rina was weakened and hurting, but the "bones" were still in place. There was still structure. And the frequent lightning was a small bonus.
Quick summary of the chase's particulars. (All times CDT and rounded to nearest 5 mins unless it's the time of actual, recorded data.)
Location & Time
* My exact location was 20.522478N 87.192073W-- right on a waterfront patio in a private community in Palmul.
* I was at this spot from ~8:00 pm to ~11:25 pm.
* The elevation where I kept the barometer was ~10 ft, and the barometer was calibrated (for sea-level readings) using that value. (Note: During the strong winds on the backside, I held the instrument high over my head to take wind readings-- so that may have slightly affected the air-pressure values from ~10 to 11 pm.)
Front Side
* The starting pressure at this location was 1001.5 mb.
* Strong, gusty winds (along with moderate rain) started at ~8:20 pm and went until ~8:45 pm. During which time, the pressure dropped fast.
Center
* At ~8:45 pm, it started to calm, and by ~8:55 pm, it had stopped raining.
* The lull lasted until ~9:25 pm. Lowest pressure during this lull was 996.5 mb, recorded at 9:12 pm.
* The NHC's 10 pm CDT advisory position (20.5N 87.2W) is as close as you can get to my location with coordinates of only one decimal place. But I believe this 10-pm-advisory position is off by ~1 hr (i.e., it's too far S), as I had the lowest pressure (with calm) an hour earlier-- a little after 9 pm. (It could be that the system was vertically tilted, and therefore the recon center fix did not match the surface center.) I'm going to send the NHC these obs, so perhaps they can factor them into the post-analysis.
* My lowest pressure corresponds very nicely with the NHC's 10-pm-advisory pressure (from recon) of 996 mb.
Backside
* Around ~9:20 pm, there was a marked shift in the wind's direction and it was picking up speed again. The pressure was 997.0 mb and rising.
* At ~9:25 pm, the wind became gusty, and it started raining lightly. The pressure was 997.6 mb and rising rapidly.
* The wind increased and became quite strong for an hour, blowing mostly from the SW-- from a little after 10 pm to a little after 11 pm. During this time-- a solid hour-- the average wind speed was 20 kt (sample rate = 30 secs), with frequent, extended periods of steady 25+ kt, and a peak gust of 33 kt (at 10:16 pm). These measurements were taken on a patio on the open beach, so the exposure was pretty good-- however, the instrument's height was only ~4 m, so true winds (at 10 m) were most certainly higher. During this period of strong winds, there was very little rain.
* By ~11:05 pm, the winds were down to 15 kt and slacking.
Other Comments
* There was frequent, brilliant lightning-- both before and after the center passed. (In fact, there was just a flash and a loud clap of thunder here in Playa del Carmen.)
* I saw very little damage on the drive back up from Palmul to Playa del Carmen-- just some downed branches and localized power outages.
I shot no video. I have no desire to dilute my portfolio with tropical-storm footage-- seems kind of lackluster-- so I didn't even turn on the camera. You know what, though? It was kind of cool and liberating to not have to shoot video, and it allowed me to concentrate more on observations. So it was a different kind of chase.
From a weather-nerd/data-collection standpoint, this chase was a lot of fun.Last edited by a moderator:
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
Awesome job from Josh ... Very key features from a scientific standpoint (with video or pictures aside).
Below would have been my return-flight had I gone...
Flight #1302 - CANCELLED
Detailed Flight Information
AMERICAN AIRLINES Departing: CUN Cancun 10/28/2011 03:10 PM CANCELLED
Arriving: MIA Miami 10/28/2011 05:50 PM D40 CANCELLED
45 MPH (although highly sheared) still GROUNDS planes...Similar threads
