Atlantic: Cape Verdi Hurricane to Form?

[Stuart Robinson]

Well it will if you believe the GFS!

The GFS has been very consistent now, run after run that another CV storm will form this year in about 60 hours time (which will be sometime Wednesday 8th October)

Once this system forms, the GFS deepens it into a hurricane by about 120 hours and a strong hurricane by end of the run (168 hours).

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


Time will tell *if* this storm (Marco) will actually form? – but it seems that the GFS has done well this year with the formation of storms at low latitude. It should also be noted that it is getting late now for an October CV Hurricane – these have occurred in the past before.

 

[Gregg Gallina]

Well if it does become Marco, I pray very hard that an EPAC system will develop and be Polo

 

[Jim Leonard]

The ITCZ flareup is probably the disturbance the model is keying in on. A few days ago the gfs was bringing the system to the Leeward islands but since then the model brings down a trough to its north then picks it up and recurves it out east of 45W which is what one would expect this time of year in that region. I doubt if there are any record of any C.V. storms that have made all the way across the atlantic to the U.S. after the end of September. Only if the disturbance were to stay weak down at around 10N there is a much better chance of it crossing the atlantic into the Caribbean.

 

[Mark Sudduth]

You guys have likely seen that the GFS has shown this system in run after run for some time now. It is very consistent on developing something, but when, where and how strong seems to vary.

Even though it is October now, the major tracks this season for most of the Cape Verde activity were west. Ike was north of 20N and still made it all the way across- amazing. So perhaps, just perhaps there will be enough ridge left to bring this possible system west enough to at least get our attention. It is at just about the right time to come west and then turn north around 75/76W and hit the Carolinas to match Hazel's run in 1954. Not making that prediction but sometimes when you see these parallels, at least in their formative stages, you can't help but wonder....afterall, Hazel had to get to the Carolina coast from somewhere...

 

[Jim Leonard]

Hazel was much farther west to begin with about 57W and about 12N when it began to take shape. That is an area where intense October storms sometimes will take shape. The area that I would like to see something get together is the western Caribbean where you would expect it to happen for the next few weeks. The problem is the models keep showing a mid-level ridge parking its self over the eastern GOM for the next week or so which will not allow anything to form there or if a system were to organize there it would immediatlely go west into Central America.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Is this the begining?

"AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. "

 

[Stuart Robinson]

The UKMO model has now started to latch onto this ...
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 8.4N 23.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.10.2008 8.4N 23.3W WEAK
12UTC 08.10.2008 9.1N 26.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 09.10.2008 10.0N 29.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2008 10.0N 33.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2008 10.6N 36.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2008 11.5N 39.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[Edit] - it should be noted that 8N, 23W is actually south of the CV Islands, the NHC has there yellow alert out of an area South West of the CV. - Overall I belive that the global models have now lacthed on to the suggestion that a storm will form - they are not not quite sure where just yet!


00UTC 11.10.2008 11.9N 41.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 11.10.2008 12.5N 43.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2008 13.2N 44.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 

[Stuart Robinson]

TS13 just took the name Marco - this system (if it even forms) will be Nana.

 

[Jim Leonard]

I hope this latitude is right because anything that develops out there this time of year has to be way south. The UKMET calling for intense in the deep tropics is impressive, they don't usually go that far out on the limb too often.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

However... Both the GFS and now the UKMO have backed off the formation of this storm..

 

[cdcollura]

This is now 97L invest ... But this will never affect land (aka "a fish storm").