Any Speculation For The Upcoming Winter Ahead?

[HAltschule]

Thank you, thank you very much :lol:

 

[Charles Kuster]

So far, this winter is off to a snowy start for Leadville. We have had two snowfalls that were over 6" and we even had the highest single day precip total (1.06") in at least 8 years. So far, for October we have 15.7 inches of snow. Last year we had 9.6 inches of snow in October and the year before that we had a trace of snow in October. For us, I would guess that we will have a near average snowfall for this winter (~120").

 

[HAltschule]

Despite my continued belief that we'll see a abnormally cold and snowy winter...especially in the 2nd half of winter....the latest 06z GFS sure shows a well above normal temperature pattern for much of the country. This warmth (thickness 562) will be common from the Ohio Valley westward through the Rockies right on through early to mid November.

What we lacked in the Spring with severe weather we may very well see over the next month or so. Severe weather could be more common through November/December this year than we think?!?! Just my $0.02.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Based on the AMO / Multi-decadal Oscillation, it appears that the Detroit area has had more record breaking snowfalls (record breaking monthly totals) during positive phases than negative phases:

+ 1880-00 IIIII

- 1900-25 IIII

+ 1925-70 IIIIII

- 1970-95 IIIII

+ 1995-05 II

If it's worth anything, most grandparents were "walking through waist deep snow" back in the 1925 period outlined above. As I said earlier though, I really have noticed quite an increase in snowstorms since the mid 1990's, which is when we started to enter a "warm phase"...

Also, looking at the GFS long range forecast, the overall pattern is rather disturbed with big temperature swings and rather potent storm systems - I wouldn't be surprised to see our area receive a quick snowfall sometime prior to Thanksgiving, which would be kind of rare.

But, given all of that... I would say there is a slightly higher chance of seeing more snow than average, so I'll give it a 55/45 chance of wetter/drier, at least for my location.