Any Speculation For The Upcoming Winter Ahead?

Fellow Weather Nerds...

So-any ideas of what kind of weather we can expect this winter in the U.S? Extreme cold? Blizzards? What?

Post your thoughts.

8)
 
Originally posted by Saul Trabal
Fellow Weather Nerds...

So-any ideas of what kind of weather we can expect this winter in the U.S? Extreme cold? Blizzards? What?

Post your thoughts.

8)

Cold and snowy! Just like it almost always is in the Upper Midwest. I start having vivid dreams about a life in Hawaii right around Ground Hog's day....primarily because I know there will be 6 more weeks of cold whether Phil sees his shadow or not :(

Pat
 
With such a warm summer, extending into fall for much of the country, I'd find it hard to believe this'll be a notable snow season for most...
 
Last winter, here in NE TN, we actually did not see any snow, at all....just bitter cold temperatures....I have a feeling (some what...) in my mind, that this winter, will just be a emulations of last time's.....
 
Originally posted by rdale
With such a warm summer, extending into fall for much of the country, I'd find it hard to believe this'll be a notable snow season for most...

We'll have to see how Mother Nature does with flip-flops I suppose. In any event accuracy from the NOAA experts on this subject is little better than the odds of a quarter turning up heads. We'll know what it did when winter is over :)
 
I think it's pretty hard to say - if not impossible. I always hear "we had a warm summer, so the winter is gonna be cold" ... But then when the summer is cold and wet, I hear "well, the summer was cold, so I supposed it will carry over and the winter will be cold".

Then, you also have to take into consideration that mesoscale aspects really determine how much snow someone gets in a season. I have seen it many times - a monster snowstorm dumps 12-18" over a large area, yet quite a few places get little (or vice versa)... Even if we talk on a synoptic scale, it's quite impossible to pinpoint the most prone locations that far in advance.

Take the NCEP winter outlook for example: Last year, MI was outlined as a pretty high risk for "dry" - yet our location received nearly 2.5 times as much as a normal winter (101 inches). Meanwhile, every other location within the NCEP forecast verified (i.e. they had a drought). It just so happened that my location was caught in several mesoscale bands through the winter (with lightning :)), that no one else seemed to get.

I must say though that when I was younger (okay, from 1989-1997) I don't remember ANY big snowstorms around this area... From 1997 onward, it seems like almost every year we get some kind of record breaking snowfall... A nice trend, but probably not anything to hang a future forecast on :wink:
 
With such a warm summer, extending into fall for much of the country, I'd find it hard to believe this'll be a notable snow season for most...

Time will tell of course, but I believe such a prolonged period of warmth and ridging will be followed by a large scale pattern shift/change. The ridge and warmth of the summer will be replaced by a very cold and snowy winter.

I FOUND THIS VERY IMPORTANT INFORMATION WHILE DOING SOME IN-DEPTH RESEARCH TODAY:

It was autumn, and the Indians on the remote reservation asked their new Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was an Indian Chief in a modern society he had never been taught the old secrets, and when he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what the weather was going to be.
Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect wood to be prepared.
But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, "Is the coming winter going to be cold?" "It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed," the Meteorologist at the weather service responded.
So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood in order to be prepared.
One week later he called the National Weather Service again. "Is it going to be a very cold winter?" he asked. "Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "it's going to be a very cold winter." The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of wood they could find.
Two weeks later he called the National Weather Service again. "Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?" Absolutely," the man replied. "It looks like it's going to be one of the coldest winters ever."
"How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked. The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy.
 
" I always hear "we had a warm summer, so the winter is gonna be cold" ..."

I agree - however this was an ABNORMALLY warm summer over a LARGE part of the country, and it's carried well into fall! This coming weekend is probably the first time in months that we've had a forecast for below-normal temps to continue for more than just 3-4 days...
 
I would be surprised if this winter didn't remain really dry (in the midwest). We've entered autumn with little overall change in activity, so I'm not getting high hope for the winter.

On the flip side, it only takes one good storm to come out of nowhere and surprise you. That's what I'm hoping for here.
 
Just a little local sidebar about the late warm season. We've already had three thunderstorm days this October here in the upper Ohio Valley/Appalachians. On average, I've observed 0-1 October thunderstorm days per year since 1993. Three doesn't seem like much but is pretty remarkable to me. Will be interesting to watch things this winter.
 
Originally posted by HAltschule


I FOUND THIS VERY IMPORTANT INFORMATION WHILE DOING SOME IN-DEPTH RESEARCH TODAY:

It was autumn, and the Indians on the remote reservation asked their new Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was an Indian Chief in a modern society he had never been taught the old secrets, and when he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what the weather was going to be.
Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect wood to be prepared.
But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, \"Is the coming winter going to be cold?\" \"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed,\" the Meteorologist at the weather service responded.
So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood in order to be prepared.
One week later he called the National Weather Service again. \"Is it going to be a very cold winter?\" he asked. \"Yes,\" the man at National Weather Service again replied, \"it's going to be a very cold winter.\" The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of wood they could find.
Two weeks later he called the National Weather Service again. \"Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?\" Absolutely,\" the man replied. \"It looks like it's going to be one of the coldest winters ever.\"
\"How can you be so sure?\" the Chief asked. The weatherman replied, \"The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy.

Too funny. I posted that same joke on WXCHASE a couple years ago and promptly received a few emails about how incorrect I was to use the term Indian instead of Native American and how such a joke with racial undertones wasn't appropriate for the list. I thought that was funnier than the joke itself. Some people are just too uptight and hey, it's a funny weather joke on NWS. :lol:
 
It's an awesome joke -- I've lamented in the past about how weather jokes are nothing but puns and groaners (unlike most of the other sciences), so this one stands out.

Tim
 
So far, this winter is off to a snowy start for Leadville. We have had two snowfalls that were over 6" and we even had the highest single day precip total (1.06") in at least 8 years. So far, for October we have 15.7 inches of snow. Last year we had 9.6 inches of snow in October and the year before that we had a trace of snow in October. For us, I would guess that we will have a near average snowfall for this winter (~120").
 
Despite my continued belief that we'll see a abnormally cold and snowy winter...especially in the 2nd half of winter....the latest 06z GFS sure shows a well above normal temperature pattern for much of the country. This warmth (thickness 562) will be common from the Ohio Valley westward through the Rockies right on through early to mid November.

What we lacked in the Spring with severe weather we may very well see over the next month or so. Severe weather could be more common through November/December this year than we think?!?! Just my $0.02.
 
Based on the AMO / Multi-decadal Oscillation, it appears that the Detroit area has had more record breaking snowfalls (record breaking monthly totals) during positive phases than negative phases:


+ 1880-00 IIIII

- 1900-25 IIII

+ 1925-70 IIIIII

- 1970-95 IIIII

+ 1995-05 II

If it's worth anything, most grandparents were "walking through waist deep snow" back in the 1925 period outlined above. As I said earlier though, I really have noticed quite an increase in snowstorms since the mid 1990's, which is when we started to enter a "warm phase"...

Also, looking at the GFS long range forecast, the overall pattern is rather disturbed with big temperature swings and rather potent storm systems - I wouldn't be surprised to see our area receive a quick snowfall sometime prior to Thanksgiving, which would be kind of rare.

But, given all of that... I would say there is a slightly higher chance of seeing more snow than average, so I'll give it a 55/45 chance of wetter/drier, at least for my location.
 
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