Accuweather winter forecast is out for 2011-12

[jshields]

Accuweather has come out with their winter forecast. It looks like a tough winter again with La Nina, but it seems to me the heaviest snow area and cold is a little further south than last year. I still don't always trust long term seasonal forecasting, but it will be interesting to see how the winter plays out. As a weather enthusiast I'm hoping this is true for Omaha. I hate dry, cold winters!

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/55832/brutal-winter-ahead-for-the-mi.asp

 

[Jeff Duda]

Looks suspiciously like climatology to me...

 

[jshields]

for Omaha at least, this isn't the norm for a La Nina winter. we're normally slightly below average snowfall and slightly above normal for temps.

 

[Jeff Duda]

for Omaha at least, this isn't the norm for a La Nina winter. we're normally slightly below average snowfall and slightly above normal for temps.

You need to think about what you just said. You're normally slightly below normal?

 

[Kevin Walters]

Looks suspiciously like climatology to me...

Yeah, they aren't exactly going out on a limb.

 

[Jeff Duda]

My point is that they should make their forecasts something relative to climatology. "Colder than average" or "snowier than average" would be better ways to list the forecast. Even something like mentioning the average storm track for synoptic scale disturbances would be good.

Also, the first graphic depicts something phallic...

 

[jshields]

You need to think about what you just said. You're normally slightly below normal?

let me clarify, NORMALLY in a La Nina year we are slightly below the climatological norm for snowfall in a winter season and slightly above the climatological norm for temperatures. hope that helps and yes i don't put much faith in a long term seasonal outlook, but i'm hoping....

 

[Mike Smith]

Here is the current NWS 7.5 month precipitation forecast. It is not even climatology (N). It is 100% "we don't offer an opinion" (EC).

 

[rdale]

Just heard a talk that finally adds value to seasonal forecasts. Her research showed that using the three categories had no skill basically. But there is skill in saying "normal or below" or "normal or above" - but that doesn't get your forecast retweeted

 

[M Conder]

Here is the current NWS 7.5 month precipitation forecast. It is not even climatology (N). It is 100% "we don't offer an opinion" (EC).

EC does NOT mean "we don't offer an opinion". It means:
EC - EQUAL CHANCES - THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE DETERMINED AND THE EXPECTED LIKELIHOODS OF ABOVE - NORMAL - AND BELOW DO NOT DIFFER FROM THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL ODDS OF 33 1/3% EACH.

From the discussion...
THE PRIMARY DRIVERS FOR THE FORECAST IN MANY OF THESE AREAS
ARE LA NINA COMPOSITES AND THE CFSV2...LITTLE CONFIDENT CLIMATE SIGNALS
EXIST DURING AMJ 2012 TO JJA 2012 AND SO ONLY AREAS OF EC ARE
INDICATED DURING THESE SEASONS. A FEW SMALL AREAS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINING SEASONS ASSOCIATED WITH LONG TERM TRENDS.

 

[Mike Smith]

EC does NOT mean "we don't offer an opinion".

It means:
THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE DETERMINED [/FONT]

What is the difference between "we don't offer an opinion" and "cannot be determined"?

In my opinion, there is nothing wrong with forecasting climatology. But, if you are going to criticize AccuWeather for doing it, then the NWS should be criticized for forecasting climatology or "no opinion."

 

[MClarkson]

The difference between the NWS and Accuweather is the sensationalism and hype.

 

[William Monfredo]

A good thing about Accu-Wx: Joe Bastardi points out that most seasonal forecasts aren't much of a forecast at all, but merely a probability scheme. Consider, if there's a 66 % chance of below normal temps across a third of the country. Joe largely eschews that, it's little better than a toss of a coin, and really does not convey much information. He does better and comes out and gives regional temperature departures, and to that ends, takes the concept of seasonal forecasting & improves it.

 

[rdale]

William, he doesn't have the skill necessary to make such detailed precision though, so I don't see how you'd call it an improvement?

 

[Patrick Marsh]

Also, William, Mr. Bastardi has left AccuWeather. He does not produce their seasonal forecasts.

Also, since my brother leaves in Chicago, I will be interested in seeing if he "wants to move" after this winter as AccuWeather's Long-Range Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg claims.