8/28/2004 FCST: Plains

[Larry J. Kosch]

Thats true...

That's true, you have to know what you are talking about. I see there's a FCST thread set up for 08/23/04 already. So this is a "beating on a dead horse" issue...subject closed.

 

[Justin Teague]

Isn't wind shear this time of year more conducive to damaging wind events rather than tornadic supercells? If I am correct, shear plays a large part in the convective mode. When wind is SW at the surface and the jet stream is more westerly, I'm thinking tornaodes. The wind direction and speed are quickly changing with height. When the surface wind is nearly parallel to the upper level wind, there is more change in speed than change in direction. Doesn't this increase chances of a less tornadic convective mode? If I am wrong, my bad, this site is a learning experience for me as are my upcoming college courses.

David, I think the Weather Service in Wichita summed it up well......

THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT ARE A GOOD BET. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE WEATHER BECAUSE AS THE PREVIOUS MIDNIGHT SHIFT INDICATED,
LOOKS MORE LIKE A SPRINGTIME FRONTAL SYSTEM RATHER THAN LATE SUMMER.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Please read the Target Area guidelines here:

http://stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1039

I'm getting a lot of PM's for things that we should already know by having read these.

Thanks

 

[Jared Mysko]

After a pretty quiet August, we are about to see some storm action around Saskatoon today. A week cluster of cells is growing up just west of the city at this hour and it should become severe over the next few hours. CAPEs are around the 1500 range so it likely will not be much to get excited about but I did see some lightning to my west already. The end of our storm chasing season on the Canadian prairies is coming fast so I hoping to get at least one good storm in before the snow flies!

Jared

Update:

CAPEs are 2500 in SE Saskatchewan so that will be the area to watch this evening....not much wind shear though...