8/27/04 FCST: Frances (Atlantic)

[Tim Vasquez]

If you really want to split hairs on the forecast track, here's what they have from 03Z (click to enlarge). Vero Beach and Disneyworld are dead center for this particular forecast.

[Broken External Image]:[URL]http://www.stormtrack.org/trackx.gif[/url]

 

[Glen Romine]

For the climatology inclined, you might find this interesting:

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/t...0406_climo.html

Basically, history would suggest that the track of Frances will be south of the current forecast - unless this event turns out to be another anamoly.

Glen

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Looks like you're probably right; the ridge turned out to be stronger than originally anticipated. Bet by tomorrow's 8AM they'll revise the track a bit south.

Jebus that thing's a monster on the sat shot. I can't imagine how it must feel to live on the coast of southern or eastern Florida right now.

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

T.A.S.C.: FRANCES UPDATE PAGE.

I have added a special page to my website which includes updated maps from TWC, NWS, & NOAA that some of you may find useful. Also decided to add it for anyone in the strike zone who may want to check out the latest warnings images etc. I also added some links from some of the posts here in this forum I thought might be useful.
Heavens forbide anyone tries to ride this one out but there always those few who do so. Also anyone chasing this thing I wish the best of luck and all of you guys stay safe. Also our prayers go out to those who were hit by Charley and those who most likely will get hit by Frances.
Since this is a forecast thread I thought id throw my 2 cents in.
I think the storm will slow a tad and make landfall somewhere between Melbourne & Miami. I know thats a broad swath but a turn to the left further South than Melbourne would not surprise me. Looking at the 2am infrared it seems like the eye is getting even tighter if you can believe it. I would not be surprised to see this thing go to Cat 5 even as high as 165mph.
Reminds me of Andrew as far as the hype and anticipation. A hurricane that has all the bark and all the bite.

http://www.texhomastormchasers.com
http://www.texhomastormchasers.com/page18.html

Again T.A.S.C. sends out prayers to Florida & anyone else who will be hit.
GIVE BLOOD!

 

[mikegeukes]

Some TV Stations Links to follow the action

Jacksonville TV Stations:
http://www.news4jax.com/index.html -WJXT (Ch. 4) CBS
http://www.wtlv.com/ -WTLV (Ch. 12) NBC
http://www.wjxx.com/ -WJXX (Ch. 25) ABC

Miami TV Stations:
http://www.wfor.com/ -WFOR (Ch. 4) CBS
http://www.nbc6.net/index.html -WTVJ (Ch. 6) NBC
http://www2.wsvn.com/special_edition/main.html -WSVN (Ch. 7) FOX
http://www.local10.com/index.html -WPLG (Ch. 10) ABC

Orlando TV Stations:
http://www.wesh.com/index.html -WESH (Ch. 2) NBC
http://www.local6.com/index.html -WKMG (Ch. 6) CBS
http://www.wftv.com/index.html -WFTV (Ch. 9) ABC

West Palm Beach TV Stations:
http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/wptv -WPTV (Ch. 5) NBC
http://www.wpecnews12.com/ -WPEC (Ch. 12) CBS
http://www.thewpbfchannel.com/index -WPBF (Ch. 25) ABC
http://www.wflxfox29.com/ -WFLX (Ch. 29) FOX

Mike

 

[Bob Schafer]

The last thing I want to do is preach here, but what we are going to soon see happen in Florida may well be the worst natural disaster in United States history.

I, for one, will be conscious of that in all postings here.

Bob

 

[Thomas Loades]

Another good webcam site:
www.natureinsolite.com/english/cameras.html
There are a lot here.

If Cape Canaveral were to get hit, though it wouldn't be so big a blow to the space shuttle program — since the last I heard of it was that it's being phased out — it would set back any potential trips to Mars, if that were to ever go ahead. Although if I lived near the Cape, I wouldn't like to think about what flying bits of lauchpads, hangars, and space shuttles would do — there's an iconic aftermath picture already.

 

[Austin Ivey]

Here's a good site I ran across this morning:

http://www.thelastquestion.com/ontheside/phil/td06.php

The best part is the recon decodes in chart format, from the first to most recent, with EDT time conversions.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

I'm in Orlando now waiting for the arrival of Frances. From the looks of it, we will probably have to go a bit further south. I have seen quite a few freight trucks with electric equipment going toward central Florida in anticipation of power loss. Also, it seems that people are taking this seriously (a good thing) since the traffic going northward was notably greater than the southbound traffic on I-75, even at midnight (last night).

I'll give updates as often as I can.

Gabe

 

[B Ozanne]

Chasers...good luck and remember not to be a burden. Stock up on supplies now and don't take anything the citizens deserve. There are millions of people down there who would rather not be there.

I'm looking forward to everyone's reports in the NOW thread, when that gets going.

If anybody from TWC is reading maybe you should pre-empt "Storm Stories" tonight. Stories about tornado survivors do not help people evacuate.

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

At a hotel in TLH (it's slow going with radar trucks!). We plan to head
down toward Titusville today and adjust from there. We'll be scouting
out radar sites all afternoon and be set up for the duration tomorrow
morning.

Good luck to all, particularly the unfortunate families that find themselves
in the path.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I have a feeling that Florida only got a taste with Charley. Winds are gusting in Frances into the 180s with sustained still at 145. With the various model plots posted, it seems that the preferred solution is still to take the storm on a northerly track once it makes landfall. Any ideas on how long this thing may be able to sustain hurricane force winds? If it sustains greater than Cat 1 winds all the way through the northern half of Florida, which I would think is completely possible, this will likely go down as the costliest storm in history. I'm hearing 'talk' now of the possibility of it cutting straight through Florida, back into the Gulf with a second landfall somewhere on the Gulf coast.

There's this part of me that would REALLY like to see what happens when an eyewall of this magnitude comes ashore. But a part of me that is pretty scared of this one. Chasers will have to be in some very sturdy, reinforced structures. Comparing to a tornado - Frances will be a lot like a 20 mile wide strong F2, possibly F3 intensity storm. Sustained winds in the 140s is enough to take apart most structures that have not been built to take it - hurricane clips installed on roofs/decks, etc. are going to get their workout on this storm.

Be safe down there -

EDIT - As time goes on, I'm thinking that we should keep our posts more on forecasting concerns (or be sure that our posts at least contain some forecast discussion in addition to the regular conversation - rather than small-talk alone). We should probably start limiting the peripheral discussion to let the mets get serious about pinpointing landfall for the eyewall. Sounds like a lot of chasers are on their way down, and this could really help them out ... just my opinion.

 

[Carrie Halliday]

I am still convinced Frances wants a taste of the Gulf. I think Charley forewarned the FL folks and they are taking this alot more seriously than they would have if Charley hadn't hit not long ago.
I think that she will take a more westerly track and hit mid to lower FL with at least Cat 4 strength. She is toying with Cat 5, wondering if she will make it before landfall...she is only 10mph off at this time. My concern is for the Miami area at this point. We may have another Andrew on our hands.
Is it normal for the eyewall to "cycle"? I have never heard of this prior to this storm.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I'm hearing 'talk' now of the possibility of it cutting straight through Florida, back into the Gulf with a second landfall somewhere on the Gulf coast.

Now this is rather interesting... There are now 4 models -- the Canadian (0z), UKMET (0z), NOGAPS (0z), and the ECMWF (0z)-- that show Frances crossing Florida and coming out into the eastern Gulf. All of these models then restrengthen the system and crash it anywhere from Tallahasee, FL, to New Orleans, LA. For what it's worth, the EMCWF has shown this solution for the last 4 out of 5 models runs (or around there). Really, the only global model that doesn't show this solution is the GFS (ETA and GFDL show this as well, though their not global models), so take that for what it's worth...

All model output obtained from either CoD or http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

The northern half of the hurricane looks a little wierd from the Infrared perspective. The past 12 hrs has shown convection wane slightly and cloudtops warm over the northern half of Frances. It doesn't look like there's much shearing going on, and dry air isn't a problem... Anyone have a guess as to why the northern half of the storm looks "weaker" / less impressive than the southern half (as viewed via infrared imagery)?

 

[Glen Romine]

EDIT - As time goes on, I'm thinking that we should keep our posts more on forecasting concerns (or at least be sure that our posts contain forecast discussion in addition to the regular conversation - rather than smalltalk alone). We should probably start limiting the peripheral discussion to let the mets get serious about pinpointing landfall for the eyewall. Sounds like a lot of chasers are on their way down, and this could really help them out ... just my opinion.

Mike, thanks for speaking up on this - I've been thinking it for a while, as the signal to noise ratio has been heavily toward the latter. An option would be to start a nowcast early and have a clean slate thread.

Anyhow, forecasts are starting to come in line with the climatology for this type of approach angle (see my earlier post). Alarming comments in the last discussion:

"THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR 125 KT INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL. GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD TOP COOLING...FRANCES COULD REACH 130-135 KT INTENSITY ON THE UP SIDE OF THE CURRENT CYCLE."

Yep, 135 knots is 155 mph, aka CAT 5. So, this is looking increasingly grim. A weak southern stream jet streak currently over TX is forecast to slide eastward toward the midatlantic states, with ridging building in to the sw Gulf. The latest cycle shows this feature slightly further south than previous runs - and this trend could help steer Frances back to the NE after landfall as the RR entrance region of jet slides across GA. Meanwhile, the ridge currently steering Frances is maintaining itself nicely despite continued forecasts by the models for this feature to break down. Venting from Frances, which 12 hours ago was primarily to the NE, has shifted now to more from the E as a upper high slides toward the WSW leading Frances. The ridge axis shows up nicely in the water vapor imagery from the upper high just west of MIA to Bermuda in a gentle arc, with a NNE-SSW upper level deformation axis back across the central Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, the ETA forecast suggests an intensification and expansion of the high pressure aloft across the Gulf - acting to place a southerly shear on the western edge, and with the trough sliding to the north of Frances- the system is barely caught up in it - leading to a stall of the hurricane just inland but after landfall, and a gradual drift back out into the Atlantic. Such a pattern would be devastating to the coast - so let's hope other guidance is less catastrophic in implications.

Glen