8/19/09 FCST KS, OK, MO,

[Lanny Dean]

Surprised no one has posted anything yet regarding todays possible set up and severe potential.
Latest WRF showing some pretty decent helecity from 0-1 through 0-3 with LIs nearing -6 to -8 from central Missouri, eastern/central Kansas through northern Oklahoma (see attached graphics)
Per the WRF 0z, it looks like a pretty decent 850 push not to mention the 500mb push....I didnt really like the 850-500 crossover but with the cold front pushing south it appears it could get interesting later today.

If we can get the current MCS/blob through by this afternoon and get some heating/sun we could see isolated sups. throughout the region.
Via the RUC (this hour) tornado potential looks to be the best in Missouri back through Kansas. IMO today could be one of those "sleeper days" and has the potential to go nuts....providing everything plays out like I want it to!

EDIT: Mods, can we please now include Illinois?

 

[mike scantlin]

I have been eyeballing this set-up for a day or two, and am surprised to see how well it could turn out, IF we can recover from ongoing crapfest. Lanny is dead on, I think we could have a nice sleeper event on our hands. Unfortunately, I'm stuck at work. I will definitely be out this evening, if clearing does happen early enough. I'm *HOPING* the RUC/NAM trends verify, and I get a nice little backyard chase in the hills of E OK. As for now, we watch and wait...

 

[CZandbergen]

I am afraid the models are not handling the crapvection this morning very well. If the models verify I like a target area some where between Wellington KS and Ponca City OK. If by some miracle the skies clear and we get some heating by early afternoon I will probably head toward Ponca City. That said, it doesn't look too promising based on current trends.

Detailed forecast at my blog: http://ke5zol.blogspot.com/

 

[John Farley]

Might add IL to the mix, as the RUC is forecasting CAPE of 3000, low LCL, and decent helicity in west-central IL. CAPE is already around 2000 in parts of eastern MO. For now I will watch from home, but be ready to blast north at a moment's notice. Right now I am liking an area bounded by a line from about Springfield-Jacksonville-Peoria.

 

[Lanny Dean]

I am afraid the models are not handling the crapvection this morning very well. If the models verify I like a target area some where between Wellington KS and Ponca City OK. If by some miracle the skies clear and we get some heating by early afternoon I will probably head toward Ponca City. That said, it doesn't look too promising based on current trends.

Detailed forecast at my blog: http://ke5zol.blogspot.com/

Via sat. and water vapor, it appears we already have some (limited) clearing in far western OK and western KS. That said, I think your target area is dead on for local and was very close to mine. Although there are a few areas I find interesting for convection, se Kansas being one, I think I will play Ponca City for now. Of course this may change IF we get some heating.

 

[CZandbergen]

Via sat. and water vapor, it appears we already have some (limited) clearing in far western OK and western KS. That said, I think your target area is dead on for local and was very close to mine. Although there are a few areas I find interesting for convection, se Kansas being one, I think I will play Ponca City for now. Of course this may change IF we get some heating.

Latest RUC run seems to want to shift the action about 60-100 miles to the west. Most likely in response to the cloud cover and better heating toward VNX. Need to watch this one closely, but as things evolve I am thinking more in the area of the intersection of I35 and 412.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I'm definitely watching the Interstate 72 corridor in western and central Illinois this afternoon for a few supercells. Nice mcv pushing out of Missouri right now, with good clearing ahead of this allowing for already rapid destabilization. Cape values at the 11 o'clock hour were already pushing 3000 j/kg ahead of the system with strongly backing SE winds. Good convergence along the eastern side of the mcv is allowing for thunderstorm development already nearing the Mississippi River.

I'd watch this area closely as it encounters the higher instability / shear in central IL for the possible evolution of a few supercells. If we can get this scenario to unfold rather than a linear system, a few tornadoes certainly seem possible. I'm looking at this as my possible first chase in exactly 2 months. Jacksonville to Springfield looks like a good starting point, but I'll sit here in Champaign for a little while to let things unfold.

 

[Matthew Piechota]

tornado watch out for embedded sups and possible tornadoes.

 

[Steve Worthington]

Going off twister data we are gonna make a play along I-35 around Ponca City or a little south of there.

 

[CZandbergen]

Based on the latest trends I am heading out for Perry OK. Temps have risen by 10 degrees in that area in the last 3 hours and that looks like the best intersection of CAPE, LI, etc. The surface winds look to be backed in this area around 21Z.

Good luck to everyone, I am heading out...

 

[Angie Norris]

It's looking rather interesting as satellite is showing clearing now in the northern parts of OK, and a couple of outflow boundaries are clearly evident; one running diagonally from about Ponca City to Altus and the other north of about McAlester. Shear looks good, particularly in the northeast corner, and moisture is more than abundant.

If I could make it out, I think the Hwy 60 corridor (Ponca City/Pawhuska) would be a good place to hang out. The big negative of the day is the potential for flooding, so for those who heading out, be careful. A lot of county roads are flooded already, so situational awareness is really impotant today.

Be careful and happy hunting...I'll be watching from work once again

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Very much a classic type of Outflow Boundary play in N. Oklahoma today. As long as the boundary doesn't wash out, I'd expect the best chance of storms to produce to be along that thing. Environment will be even better than the 17th which I bagged one of the best supercells I've seen this year. Flow is good, and given the enhanced vorticity and LL Shear right along and just N of the boundary and a storm moving along it....could just be the surprise day that happens every year.

With that said, I'm targeting a Fairview/Waynoka/Seiling Triangle nearer to the trough and Outflow boundary. Best combination of meteorological conditions and actual chasing conditions will reside there this afternoon. Could be a sleeper, but if I get anything close to what I got two days ago...I'd be more than happy!

Edit: Two things to keep in mind folks. 1)Flash Flooding is a real threat today as are roads which are closer to goo than solid ground. 2)The Osage Indian Reservation is still probably some of the worst chasing terrain on the plains

20z Update: Things are coming together really well. Going to shift the target just a bit to the Highway 81 corridor. No doubt the combination of Low-LCLs, wind shear, instability, and the OFB will allow for any storm which does form to have a shot at doing something interesting. That area has also gotten drenched with rain, so sticking to the highways might be best if you venture out that same direction.

 

[Mike Smith]

If you look at the 18Z data from the Lamont profiler, it is surprisingly good for supercells (given the time of year). You don't often see 85kt. winds at this latitude in mid-August.

The E-W boundary might retreat north fairly quickly this afternoon. If I am correct about that, I would think the axis of the severe weather would be from just southeast of AVK to CNU in about a 100 mi. wide band.

Meso issued: www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1919.html

Lamont 18Z sounding here: www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/09081918_OBS/ Very impressive with 0-1km helicity just over 300, with more than 2100 j. of surface-based CAPE and 85kt winds at 250mb.

 

[Pat Darrow]

Tornado watch issued: http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0714.html

 

[Lanny Dean]

If you look at the 18Z data from the Lamont profiler, it is surprisingly good for supercells (given the time of year). You don't often see 85kt. winds at this latitude in mid-August.
Lamont 18Z sounding here: www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/09081918_OBS/ Very impressive with 0-1km helicity just over 300, with more than 2100 j. of surface-based CAPE and 85kt winds at 250mb.

I think Mike is dead on (see profiler graphic attached) 0-1km helecity over 300 now!!
I am only about 30 miles from 35 and will be leaving in about 5 min.

Good luck to everyone chasing today/tonight