6/6/04 FCST: SD, ND, Canada

Forecast helicities in northwestern plains, Manitoba and Saskatchewan combined with extreme instability may make for an interesting chase day for the great north - - - discuss any possibilities here.
 
Going off Thursday's 18z eta. Someplace in the western Dakotas should be a fun play come Sunday.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/offeta..._500_spd_78.gif

Ummm, that is insane for 500mb flow. Hope it's effects are too late.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/offeta..._850_spd_78.gif

Toss in a backed 850 jet and you have some rather impressive shear in place.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/offeta...0mb_dewp_78.gif

I'd take the area in sw ND give things stay as the 18z shows them. Hopefully there will be some sort of outflow boundary further east to play on. Thoughts?
 
My first thought is... what should I target? I see the Meadow Lake region in west-central Sask has the highest cape values with helicity also very high to the east of the bullseye at 18z:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/CAN/et...N_0_cape_66.gif

...but then it seems to spread out at 0z as if will be an early day time chase which is good for me. Unfortunately Meadow Lake is surrounded by trees as is that whole area. Hopefully I can chase the area of North Battleford to Saskatoon but that would probably be too easy. It is a cellular covered twin highway where I found my tornado last August near Maymont.

I still have a few days away but it is definately on my mind.

Jared
:roll: :? :roll: :shock: :eek:
 
The current outlook for Sunday is improving for a nearby chase. ETA now shows capes will be strongest in a line from Estevan to North Battleford. The province of Saskatchewan should see the best action but I doubt that it will get anything like summer storms until it hits Manitoba on Monday.

Jared
 
Is 4:30am too early for a Now thread? lol. Cells are popping up in Montana and headed this way. 3 thunderstorm warnings have just been issued in north central Montana. I think I will have a nap then decide which way to head.

Jared - chasing today!!

:wink: :eek: :lol: :lol:
 
Well, it seems to be setting up nicely all around Saskatoon now but I tend to be leaning toward taking a drive south towards Estevan/Regina so I'm right there when the storms fire up later on in the afternoon. Looks like a pretty good chance for hail and straight line winds but I doubt it will be a huge storm today. London Drugs in Regina is my favorite spot for Internet since it is close to several highways on the east side of town. I may be there around 1 or 2 pm depending on how the next hour or so goes here.

Jared
 
Jamestown, North Dakota, Tornados Today?

Looks like several parameters are coming together with warm front, backed surface
winds, low level jet, mid level shortwave, lots of sun, and increasing moisture. Already
Bismarck VAD showing an ok shear profile which should only get better.

Looks like a classic setup for possible tornado near warm front, northeast of
surface low, and on edge of 700mb cap. Forecast storm movements are slow and only
10 to 15 knots, so very good mid level storm relative shear will be in place and surface
winds may increase and back even more in response to pressure falls. The ETA shows
a 40kt (850mb) low level jet. Question is how far south will warm cap break into S. Dakota or
south of Jamestown? So my early virtual chase pick is Jamestown for the my best area
to break the cap.

Negatives:
Too warm Temperature/Dewpoint spread?
 
NWS MesoScale Discussions

NWS is having mesoscale discussions including a couple of areas in the Northern Plains and one in TX. Here's a clip from a MS for North Dakota:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED ND CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 061809Z - 062045Z

WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL ND AROUND 20Z.

Other MS discussions were for an area in Southern MN and WI and a area in central TX. 8) LJK.

Update: NWS has issued a SWW for ND:

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
8) LJK.
 
Well, I'm now in Regina looking at data. Very warm south of here but there is pretty decent cell north of here. Watches have been issued for the Estevan area but I would be a bit upset if I missed a big storm in Saskatoon and got nothing in Estevan. Sitting here is making me more anxious so I think I will head out. Not even sure which direction, I think I will just follow the darkest clouds that I see!

Jared
 
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