6/08/2005 Talk: Central US

Storm near St. Joe is weakening somewhat on radar... was up to a max reflectivity of 52 dBz arond one point... now down to near 40.... new echoes continue to show up south and west from this cell....
 
Surface moisture convergence really building now from ~ Potawatomi Indian Reservation SE through Lawrence/Ottawa to MO/KS state line at Linn County. Very sharp dry line coming in - 41td in Russell last hour vs. 78td in Fredonia. Early signs of convection on radar roughly St. Joe to W of Topeka. Be alert on intercept angle as ST forecast has storm motion perhaps becoming more eastward, 15-20 kts, over next few hours.
 
Everyone watch out for the nasty rushhour traffic in the kc metro area. The north side is not so bad, but down near Johnson county,..nasty.


I am in independence and do not get off work till 7, but I may still head down I-70 and go after some stuff east of me by then.
 
Sitting in parking lot best western in Ottawa, awaiting chase partners. Darin Brunin is headed towards Atchison. We are most likely gonna head out North. Excellent connection.
 
I just stepped outside my building at Ft. Leavenworth with my Kestrel. Temp in the shade was hovering around 90, dew point around 75, winds are fitfull. There's a line of pretty little towers marching by north of post--if this is what is showing on radar, it's just at the northern edge of the Leavenworth county line, heading towards the Missouri river (hmm--hilly country for chasers). Nothing much to them yet beyond the "pretty" factor--unfortunately I can't spend time watching them develop as my office window looks out on a brick wall.
 
Kansas City

I will head out to St. Joe or maybe 10-15 miles west of. I will not get off work here in Kansas City until 1700 and will head up north. I am sure I will revise this in about an hour or so.
 
New echoes now showing up from just Se of Topeka and another NE of that... both have a max of 44 dBz on radar...

Atmosphere in these areas is very unstable... hope these storms can sustain themselves...

Be safe everyone...
 
Cell on the Platte/Buchanan Co. line is starting to toughen up ... I think these three echos from Platte City to Topeka might have a better shot as they are in a better SFC wind environment -
 
I am surprise at how small these cells are in ne kansas, with this much instability, i would expect there would be explosive development......Then again I may eat my foot here in the next hour.......... :wink:

Another Tcu line in extreme se nebraska taking shape as well.

New convcection breaking out from se of emporia to a st. joe line!!!
 
With dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, there'll be extreme water loading in the updraft, weakening the updraft strength accordingly. This will be compounded by the weak deep-layer shear (SPC Mesoanaly indicating <30kts south of I70). If the shear doesn't pick up, I'm not sure how these can be very long-lived given the extreme CAPE / water loading.
 
Currently in Yates Center. CU's are developing and showing good height to my N/NW. A few TCU's have developed right over my head as well. Am going to continue on to Iola and possible head a bit more to the N and NE.

Winds in Yates Center are due south.
 
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
If the shear doesn't pick up, I'm not sure how these can be very long-lived given the extreme CAPE / water loading.
Click to expand...

crud ... if it isn't a problem with not enough moisture, then it's a problem with TOO MUCH moisture ... welcome to northeast Kansas ...
 
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