6/08/2005 Talk: Central US

[Billy Griffin]

Yeah, I'm seeing the same thing here.
I first got the Day1 showing a MOD over most of South Dakota, but no probablistic stuff there. :?
Now it shows an area of no anticipated convection in that same area and the risk is now slight.

Perhaps some server problems or something. Our servers here have to be refreshed about 8 times to clear the cache from the previous day. At first, I thought it was just our system here.

Despite the relatively low chances of SVR indicated by forecasts and models, I'm still hoping for maybe some good lightning photos out in west-central or northwest Oklahoma. I haven't managed to get some good lightning pictures all year. Maybe I can catch one of those 20-minute cells going up. :roll:

 

[Glen Romine]

Originally posted by Chris Foltz
Mike,

SWODY1 was updated at 1244Z. SPC dropped the 5% torn down to 2% and focused it more from NE KS into NW MO. Overall, the day isn't shaping up too great for torns.

I wouldn't be overly concerned by the apparent downgrading of tornado potential in that area. Note that at the time the forecast was issued - an MCD was expecting rapid southward development of the convection down the line of developing cumulus into KS. Since this hasn't materialized to the extent expected - the cooler outflow expected from this to drive the boundary well south away from the better upper level flow may not be as strong a push as earlier thought. So - seems wise to wait and see how agressive the outflow push really ends up being before calling this day a wash. Seems there is still some possibility for things to recover nicely if the boundary doesn't scream too far south - should be more clear in a few hours as the current storms press eastward away from the area.

Glen

 

[Philip Flory]

Anyone chasing today??? We have a MDT risk now per 1630z SPC, 5% tor E KS/W MO.

I just woke up about a half-hour ago so im gonna get ready and then run over some data. After a very quick look at RUC run, im thinking of either heading up towards EMP or over to Chanute.

 

[Ben Prusia]

SPC went MOD risk for KC Area down to ICT with a 5% chance of tornadoes at 1630Z.

Quick ob from outside shows 85 degrees and 73 degree dewpoint out here in Overland Park, very soupy air outhere in suburban Kansas City, but today I might be heading out to the dryline, still looking at further surface obs and severe parameters before I go out and get an exact target. Good luck all!

My preliminary targetting choice will be Ottawa, KS, maybe as far as Emporia, but I am going to look at further data before making a sound decision.

EDIT: Stood outside for a little bit more and the Kestrel 3500 says: Temp of 88.1 degrees with Td of 75.6, it's an oven outside!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Props to Glen, as SPC upgrades to 5%t and mdt.

Instability should be very nice today, as evidenced by the 12z OUN sounding showing ~3800 j/kg CAPE at 12z! Pretty much dry adiabatic from 750 to the tropopause, with a brief break nea r500mb...

 

[Eric B'Hymer]

I sure like it when its gonna blow up in my backyard. I cant believe the progged 5500+ cape just to my northeast via RUC.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Dick McGowan his heading out (I think will meet up with you, Eric?). I have alot of positions on this afternoon with my day trading, so I need to stay here and keep an eye on the stock market -- will probably nowcast for Dick and probably put on my spotter's hat later if watch box / storms affect KC area.

Air is extremely muggy here - moreso than even last Saturday I believe. From just looking at the sky, though, flow looks to be a bit unidirectional - no real hints of crossing at the upper levels, again just like last Saturday.

 

[Eric B'Hymer]

Mike, dewpoint is like 75 here right now. I dont like the surface sw flow right now. I am still looking for the outflow bndry to slide this way. According to the 16z mesoanalysis, there are 2 areas, west of me 2 counties and then up near kc between top and kc. Im kinda torn on which way. Dick is headed home to check out stuff and i told him to call me back. What's your thoughts on this?

 

[Mike Johnston]

Eric, it is kind of a tough call. However, from quick glance it looks like the NE target might be in better proximity to upper level shear. Looks like it might be a situation where initiation will begin NE and then backbuild along line towards SW. Both targets might just be close enough where you and Dick could meet up somewhere in between and then run to first good intercept opportunity.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Good grief ... went back to bed (not feeling the greatest) and got up and look at all this ... unexpected after this morning. Satellite shows a heavier line of Cu running from KC south through extreme SE Kansas, with another possible developing line off to the west across NE Kansas ... looks like we need to get ready to chase soon.

 

[Philip Flory]

Really in a hurry here to leave ICT... day has really caught me by surprise, was not prepared to chase.

Currently am going to target the Emporia area after a very brief data check.... out the door in 20min or less.


Good luck all


EDIT:: actually headed to Yates Center-- EMP too far NW ..

 

[Eric B'Hymer]

Right now, Ottawa to Emporia look good to me. The outflow is visible on sat loop.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

We have towering cumulus exploding over St. Joe right now ... I'm worried that today may become an MCS-fest ... this Cu just east of my house is obviously breaking through and taking off though ... looks to me now that this more subtle line running from St. Joe through Platte City, near the Leavenworth area may be the one to initiate first. I love days like this!

 

[Dick McGowan]

Absolutely no CAP right now. Gonna have to hit these fast, still mostly cloudy here in KC, very very sticky. I really hope these don't immediately line out. Tornado watch should be issued per MD.

 

[Eric B'Hymer]

Tornado watch just issued, all of eastern kansas