6/08/2005 Talk: Central US

[Andrew Pritchard]

Wednesday is looking somewhat interesting over a good portion of the central US, specifically IA/NE/KS. The GFS paints a very good setup over this area per the 12Z run today...showing near 7000 CAPE...and a strong low over the NE area, pulling strong SE winds over the entire IA/MO/KS/NE area. GFS puts sig. tor over this area around 4 or 5. The main factor will be the previous days convection, laying out boundaries, and stabilizing certain areas. However, it's the first day off I've had in quite some time, so I will definetly head out...and at this point, while too early to name a target, I do like the Ia/Ne border...specifically NW Iowa attm...though this will likely change, as the models will certainly do.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

The latest run of the NAM tonight is starting to be more favorable for severe weather. Some versions of the NAM even have a dry line over central Iowa for the wednesday afternoon time period. This is very unusual for our area, but if it pans out, I'll take it!
Definitely too early to target but best shear looks to be further south, although the instability is quite high all along this boundary... be it a dry line, trough of low pressure, cold front, or whatever else its being forecasted as.

 

[Douglas Mitchell]

Wind profiles for this event are looking rather undirectional as the dryline pushes into extremely humid air. There may be a chance for initial discrete supercells in W WI/N IL I believe, initially before the squall develops. This could be a very severe day all the way from Lake Superior down into OK/TX. Impressive instability in front of the dryline will definitely make it interesting.

 

[bill mudd]

any other thoughts on the current spc 25% risk area of central NB regarding tomorrows boundaries?

 

[Billy Griffin]

I'm hoping this verifies for tomorrow... CAPE should be ~ 4500 in west-central Oklahoma with a weak, upper-level system kicking out over Oklahoma that may yield some isolated severe storms.

Nice thing is, these will be isolated on the dryline !! :wink:

My plans are to target the Woodward - Enid, OK area for tomorrow afternoon. Hope to depart work by 3pm and head out west/northwest.

Looks like scattered severe all over the place tomorrow.
Good luck to all !! :wink:

 

[Kiel Ortega]

The OK target looks more on the downside to me...once again looks like high instability, strong cap and weak flow. The 00Z soundings from OUN and LMN show the cap held fairly well...and unless that dryline comes mixing east fairly quickly (which doesn't appear to happen...moisture is deep and there isn't going to be a bad ass low to help get the west winds at the surface going...and the LLJ is still pumping up moisture tonight), I'm gonna go with no storms or weak ones if they do form. Further, the UA set up seems similar to the DDC bust last week with diffluent flow at 500 under the oh-so-quicker and less diffluent 300/250 flow that led to a awesome supercell...for 20 minutes! :roll: Further, the ETA/NAM/whatever seems a little to happy to add moisture and start mixing the BL per the 00Z run for tomorrow. I'll save my energy, time and money for Friday and Sunday as the GFS runs look better for those days :wink:

But who knows...I think the atmosphere hates me and might get mad I made such a statement. :lol:

 

[Anthony Silver]

Yeah, I think the better probability for severe weather will be this weekend. For some reason the setup for today and tomorrow doesnt appeal to me very much. Unless drastic changes occur with the forecasts and later model runs, I'll be staying put.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

I think I am going to head towards good old Pratt, Kansas.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Hoping that UL support can pull up just a tad by tomorrow afternoon in northeast Kansas (everyone's favorite chase target). Instability looks great ... slightly better profiles to the west may cause me to head toward N-C Kansas instead as storms backbuild in that direction from the northeast. Or may just start northeast and work our way west ... we'll see ... don't really have a strongly positive or negative feel either way. Just going to have fun I guess -

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Lol Mike -- every time I hear the words "Northcentral Kansas", I immediately think of "Republican County". I swear, we chasers are going about this all wrong. One needs not to drive all over the place to see tornadoes, one only needs to live in Republican County, Kansas. :lol:

 

[John MacKay]

What about Harper or Sumner counties? (or heck, Cowley. They've seemed to get the most TOR warnings around here the last 10 years).

Seeing the 5% tornado bullseye, I'll keep my guard up, but I don't feel like doing that much chasing before Thursday. I have things to do in Wichita tomorrow, so if anything happens, I'll be around.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Would be great if the 1300Z outlook would update ... it's now 1400Z but still no update.

 

[Chris Foltz]

Mike,

SWODY1 was updated at 1244Z. SPC dropped the 5% torn down to 2% and focused it more from NE KS into NW MO. Overall, the day isn't shaping up too great for torns.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Thanks Chris - thought they might be having some website trouble ...

 

[Chris Foltz]

Oddly enough, when I go to SWODY1 now, it shows the 1300Z graphic on the main page but when I click on it, it brings up the 0600Z advisory. Think SPC must be having a problem with their site this morning.....