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6/08/2005 Talk: Central US

Wednesday is looking somewhat interesting over a good portion of the central US, specifically IA/NE/KS. The GFS paints a very good setup over this area per the 12Z run today...showing near 7000 CAPE...and a strong low over the NE area, pulling strong SE winds over the entire IA/MO/KS/NE area. GFS puts sig. tor over this area around 4 or 5. The main factor will be the previous days convection, laying out boundaries, and stabilizing certain areas. However, it's the first day off I've had in quite some time, so I will definetly head out...and at this point, while too early to name a target, I do like the Ia/Ne border...specifically NW Iowa attm...though this will likely change, as the models will certainly do.
 
The latest run of the NAM tonight is starting to be more favorable for severe weather. Some versions of the NAM even have a dry line over central Iowa for the wednesday afternoon time period. This is very unusual for our area, but if it pans out, I'll take it!
Definitely too early to target but best shear looks to be further south, although the instability is quite high all along this boundary... be it a dry line, trough of low pressure, cold front, or whatever else its being forecasted as.
 
Wind profiles for this event are looking rather undirectional as the dryline pushes into extremely humid air. There may be a chance for initial discrete supercells in W WI/N IL I believe, initially before the squall develops. This could be a very severe day all the way from Lake Superior down into OK/TX. Impressive instability in front of the dryline will definitely make it interesting.
 
I'm hoping this verifies for tomorrow... CAPE should be ~ 4500 in west-central Oklahoma with a weak, upper-level system kicking out over Oklahoma that may yield some isolated severe storms.

Nice thing is, these will be isolated on the dryline !! :wink:

My plans are to target the Woodward - Enid, OK area for tomorrow afternoon. Hope to depart work by 3pm and head out west/northwest.

Looks like scattered severe all over the place tomorrow.
Good luck to all !! :wink:
 
The OK target looks more on the downside to me...once again looks like high instability, strong cap and weak flow. The 00Z soundings from OUN and LMN show the cap held fairly well...and unless that dryline comes mixing east fairly quickly (which doesn't appear to happen...moisture is deep and there isn't going to be a bad ass low to help get the west winds at the surface going...and the LLJ is still pumping up moisture tonight), I'm gonna go with no storms or weak ones if they do form. Further, the UA set up seems similar to the DDC bust last week with diffluent flow at 500 under the oh-so-quicker and less diffluent 300/250 flow that led to a awesome supercell...for 20 minutes! :roll: Further, the ETA/NAM/whatever seems a little to happy to add moisture and start mixing the BL per the 00Z run for tomorrow. I'll save my energy, time and money for Friday and Sunday as the GFS runs look better for those days :wink:

But who knows...I think the atmosphere hates me and might get mad I made such a statement. :lol:
 
Yeah, I think the better probability for severe weather will be this weekend. For some reason the setup for today and tomorrow doesnt appeal to me very much. Unless drastic changes occur with the forecasts and later model runs, I'll be staying put.
 
Hoping that UL support can pull up just a tad by tomorrow afternoon in northeast Kansas (everyone's favorite chase target). Instability looks great ... slightly better profiles to the west may cause me to head toward N-C Kansas instead as storms backbuild in that direction from the northeast. Or may just start northeast and work our way west ... we'll see ... don't really have a strongly positive or negative feel either way. Just going to have fun I guess -
 
Lol Mike -- every time I hear the words "Northcentral Kansas", I immediately think of "Republican County". I swear, we chasers are going about this all wrong. One needs not to drive all over the place to see tornadoes, one only needs to live in Republican County, Kansas. :lol:
 
What about Harper or Sumner counties? (or heck, Cowley. They've seemed to get the most TOR warnings around here the last 10 years).

Seeing the 5% tornado bullseye, I'll keep my guard up, but I don't feel like doing that much chasing before Thursday. I have things to do in Wichita tomorrow, so if anything happens, I'll be around.
 
Mike,

SWODY1 was updated at 1244Z. SPC dropped the 5% torn down to 2% and focused it more from NE KS into NW MO. Overall, the day isn't shaping up too great for torns.
 
Oddly enough, when I go to SWODY1 now, it shows the 1300Z graphic on the main page but when I click on it, it brings up the 0600Z advisory. Think SPC must be having a problem with their site this morning.....
 
Yeah, I'm seeing the same thing here.
I first got the Day1 showing a MOD over most of South Dakota, but no probablistic stuff there. :?
Now it shows an area of no anticipated convection in that same area and the risk is now slight.

Perhaps some server problems or something. Our servers here have to be refreshed about 8 times to clear the cache from the previous day. At first, I thought it was just our system here.

Despite the relatively low chances of SVR indicated by forecasts and models, I'm still hoping for maybe some good lightning photos out in west-central or northwest Oklahoma. I haven't managed to get some good lightning pictures all year. Maybe I can catch one of those 20-minute cells going up. :roll:
 
Originally posted by Chris Foltz
Mike,

SWODY1 was updated at 1244Z. SPC dropped the 5% torn down to 2% and focused it more from NE KS into NW MO. Overall, the day isn't shaping up too great for torns.

I wouldn't be overly concerned by the apparent downgrading of tornado potential in that area. Note that at the time the forecast was issued - an MCD was expecting rapid southward development of the convection down the line of developing cumulus into KS. Since this hasn't materialized to the extent expected - the cooler outflow expected from this to drive the boundary well south away from the better upper level flow may not be as strong a push as earlier thought. So - seems wise to wait and see how agressive the outflow push really ends up being before calling this day a wash. Seems there is still some possibility for things to recover nicely if the boundary doesn't scream too far south - should be more clear in a few hours as the current storms press eastward away from the area.

Glen
 
Anyone chasing today??? We have a MDT risk now per 1630z SPC, 5% tor E KS/W MO.

I just woke up about a half-hour ago so im gonna get ready and then run over some data. After a very quick look at RUC run, im thinking of either heading up towards EMP or over to Chanute.
 
SPC went MOD risk for KC Area down to ICT with a 5% chance of tornadoes at 1630Z.

Quick ob from outside shows 85 degrees and 73 degree dewpoint out here in Overland Park, very soupy air outhere in suburban Kansas City, but today I might be heading out to the dryline, still looking at further surface obs and severe parameters before I go out and get an exact target. Good luck all!

My preliminary targetting choice will be Ottawa, KS, maybe as far as Emporia, but I am going to look at further data before making a sound decision.

EDIT: Stood outside for a little bit more and the Kestrel 3500 says: Temp of 88.1 degrees with Td of 75.6, it's an oven outside!
 
Props to Glen, as SPC upgrades to 5%t and mdt.

Instability should be very nice today, as evidenced by the 12z OUN sounding showing ~3800 j/kg CAPE at 12z! Pretty much dry adiabatic from 750 to the tropopause, with a brief break nea r500mb...
 
I sure like it when its gonna blow up in my backyard. I cant believe the progged 5500+ cape just to my northeast via RUC.
 
Dick McGowan his heading out (I think will meet up with you, Eric?). I have alot of positions on this afternoon with my day trading, so I need to stay here and keep an eye on the stock market -- will probably nowcast for Dick and probably put on my spotter's hat later if watch box / storms affect KC area.

Air is extremely muggy here - moreso than even last Saturday I believe. From just looking at the sky, though, flow looks to be a bit unidirectional - no real hints of crossing at the upper levels, again just like last Saturday.
 
Mike, dewpoint is like 75 here right now. I dont like the surface sw flow right now. I am still looking for the outflow bndry to slide this way. According to the 16z mesoanalysis, there are 2 areas, west of me 2 counties and then up near kc between top and kc. Im kinda torn on which way. Dick is headed home to check out stuff and i told him to call me back. What's your thoughts on this?
 
Eric, it is kind of a tough call. However, from quick glance it looks like the NE target might be in better proximity to upper level shear. Looks like it might be a situation where initiation will begin NE and then backbuild along line towards SW. Both targets might just be close enough where you and Dick could meet up somewhere in between and then run to first good intercept opportunity.
 
Good grief ... went back to bed (not feeling the greatest) and got up and look at all this ... unexpected after this morning. Satellite shows a heavier line of Cu running from KC south through extreme SE Kansas, with another possible developing line off to the west across NE Kansas ... looks like we need to get ready to chase soon.
 
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