5/8/05 TALK: Plains

[Mikey Gribble]

After taking a closer look, I think I am going to sit tight and play this one closer to home.

 

[Philip Flory]

Just woke up from 800 mile chase (drove all the way back to ICT from Turkey, TX area. Despite Wichita NWS saying mid-level winds are weak for supercells, I would not totally discount the N OK/S KS area this afternoon, as long as sufficient insolation can take place. Shear profiles are weakening thru the day. 67/62 here at my house, RUC and NAM are both supportive of 2000-2500 J/KG SBCAPE in front of dryline, should more clearing happen, 3000 J/KG not out of the question. Lack of much SFC convergence should hold off convective init till at least 21z. Combination of instability and backing SFC winds, and maybe, maybe... a dryline bulge in NW OK (per RUC..). No time to get into details.. however, I think enough other parameters are coming together (once again, barring insolation) in NC OK/S KS to support more then a landspout type event. Lack of strong SFC convergence DOES concern me, RUC does not even break out precip in the area, NAM does however. For now, I would target just S and E of Wichita.... say Arkansas City.

LOL... simular thoughts there Michael :lol:

 

[Chris C Sanner]

What a difference 6 hours makes. 500mb winds that were progged at 40kt+ over Oklahoma are now forecasted to be shunted S and E again. Maybe it'll take another dramatic turn before the day is out? :lol:

All in all, it's gonna take some type of mesoscale boundary to probably kick any type of a decent show off today, and even then, things look to be in the HP category, YUCK. But Low Level shear, instability, etc. is great, its just that the mid and upper level support is gonna suck big time, so it looks like more of the same this year, we get one thing one day (winds) and another thing another (instability) and we get two subpar days out of the deal. I'm still hopeful, but I'm not driving very far today to bust again

 

[DanHinch]

I agree with you guys on SE KS. I arrived in ICT this morning, and I'm just hanging out to see how quickly the dryline moves...I'm thinking the RUC is a little fast and things will probably break out near I35...If the cap breaks, it could be a good show. RUC progs SRH values of 350+ in SE KS ahead of the dryline bulge with nicely backed winds. Deep layer shear on the order of 28-30knts will get it done. I've seen nice torns with deep layer shear in that realm, but the storms themselves are usually not long lived. Good luck to those out today, this was pretty much on my way home from yesterday, so I figured what the heck. Now I'm really starting to like the set up.

Dan

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I could almost see a repeat of yesterday in NE but a bit further east, say Lincoln. Maybe some of that cirrus can keep tail end charlie a bit more north. I guess I am thinking Lincoln and perhaps slightly west and fairly early.

 

[Ben Prusia]

I am still hanging out in Grand Island, NE after yesterday's successful chase in SC Nebraska. I agree with Mike that we could possibly see a repeat of yesterday's event, just a little further east, and maybe north. I will leave Grand Island in about an hour and head east to the Lincoln area after I do some more data checking here at the Free Wi-Fi Spot at the Bosselman Travel Center near I-80 and US-281.

EDIT: SPC now has an area roughly north of Omaha in MDT Risk Category.

 

[Dan Cook]

PSWO has been issued..

http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/latest.wous40.KWNS.html

 

[Blake Michaleski]

I'm in San Angelo TX at chase partner Derek Deroche's place, waiting on him to get off work from WFO SJT. We dont have much of a choice today excpet play the dryline close by. Latest Vis imagery shows an outflow boundary to our SE moving NW from the MCS to our south.

The height gradient in the trough axis is pathetic and will obviously yeild weak midlevel flow. however lapse rates are very nice jsut looking at teh surrounding RAOBs. (SJT doesnt launch baloons.)

 

[Dick McGowan]

gr 3 is picking up TVS in so. west. dewitt county texas.

 

[Philip Flory]

I expect an SPC MCD any minute for C KS into N OK. Line of CU are beginning to develop accross Central KS... radar also indicates a few echos west and north of Hutchinson, KS. New RUC forecast for the first time indicates isolated precip breaking out near/before 0z accross SC KS/NC OK. Im still liking the area on the head of the dry punch in SC KS.. increasing SFC conv also evident accross NC OK/S KS. Temps have warmed to near 80F along dryline with tds of 62-63... sufficient for 2000-2500 J/KG SBCAPE. Feel initiation may take place near the Harper, KS area in the next 1-3 hrs. Mid-level winds are the main negating factor considering strong directional low-level shear and instability are in place.

I am sitting at my house in East Wichita watching closely... van is packed and ready to go.

 

[B Ozanne]

Sitting in Wichita Falls, watching towers go up to the west. Still high based, but winds are SE and dewpoints are in the mid 60's. Just waiting for something to get going here.

EDIT: 85/60 in Wichita Falls.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Agree with Phillip on potential init near Harper. Scott Eubanks and I are in Wellington with low cu, and our cirrus shield, which was pretty recent for this part of the I-35 corridor today, has burned off. For most of the day, this area from Enid to ICT was under relatively fair to sunny skies, and the surface temps reflect this as they have reached 80F around the area. Several boundaries in place including a northwestward moving boundary from the earlier E KS MCS. We'll see if something can go.

 

[Joe Zemek]

new TOR WARN: Northwest of Aberdeen, SD

248 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MCPHERSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

 

[Dick McGowan]

gr 3 is showing some cells firing right in republic county ks. belleville is in the path. this town is a magnet, along with harper co. showing some cells further south also.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Originally posted by Dick McGowan
gr 3 is showing some cells firing right in republic county ks. belleville is in the path. this town is a magnet, along with harper co. showing some cells further south also.

The Belleville cell is showing some promise. Not sure if it can get its act together, but it seems to be trying hard to assume the ol' supercell pattern on radar.