5/8/05 TALK: Plains

Originally posted by Rodney Price+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Rodney Price)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-Billy Griffin
Just for talk, I have a better feeling about Sunday. It figures... another way to get in trouble with mama. :wink:

No kidding! My wife, our 1 year-old daughter and I plan to see my folks on Mother's Day. I don't plan to get out of this trip but you can bet I'll be taking the camcorder and scanner along just in case! :lol:

It does make me a bit nervous to have the little one along on what might possibly be a busy day. I'm not sure I'm quite ready to take her out on her first chase just yet...

It will be interesting to see how things change with the long range guidance as we get closer to the potential event. We'll wait and see!

Rodney[/b]
 
Originally posted by Billy Griffin

I can only speak for myself and my family here, so others please don't get offended. Remember... I'm only speaking of my personal experiences on this...

The only advice I'd give you, after raising two young-uns, is if you do take them on chases as they get older, don't ever let them see you scared. My wife has the tendency to \"scream\" at every little thing she sees on the road. Ironically, the weather doesn't seem to bother her, but yet if I hit the brakes or get into traffic, she F R E A K S :shock:

Last year, we were on the road doing fine chasing the tornado on May 29th there by Geary, when suddenly my wife starts getting upset because of hearing how David Payne with KFOR-4 TV got, supposedly, injured by the hail and high winds... and next thing I know, my daughter is balling :crying: or Very sad Needless to say, it made for a frustrating end to the chase.

It's your call, as you know how your wife is with you chasing, but my experience is, I leave my wife home and my kids like to go. :wink: I'm trying to teach them to respect Mother Nature, not fear her.
And oh yeah, the media does a great job in \"dramatizing\" the weather events here in Oklahoma. Every time a little storm fires up, it's like Armageddon has fallen upon the OKC metro!

Back on the weather topic, I do hope we can finally get these storms to WAIT until initiation around 4pm or so. Seems like this year, everything tries to go up at 2pm. If we can get it to hold off, at least most of us can enjoy a nice Mother's Day with mama, then excuse ourselves for the chase. :wink:
 
Thanks to Jeff for moving my post out of FCST and into Talk... silly me, I thought I was in the talk thread. Oops. :oops: Anyway, thanks.

I'm sure anxious to see how this weekend shapes up. I'm still thinking it will take until Sunday for the atmopshere to really get back in shape with these February temps hanging around. Warming up starts today, so perhaps by Sunday our moisture will be okay.
 
I'm hoping that if something happens on saturday, that there will be another opportunity on sunday. I know it's mothers day which is bad lol.

I did notice the LI at 18z and 0z for sunday is nice :)..

Missed the tornadoes on the 21st because of a mind change at the last minute, maybe this time will be the time i dont mess up and finally get that first tornado ;)

As far as my area id go for... somewhere in eastern/southeastern ks (because thats closer :D)

- Buddy
 
I'm hoping this weekend will get interesting, and here's what the WFO's around here are saying...

Davenport says:

ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE OMINOUS IN THAT STRONG CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF IOWA AND MISSOURI...MARCHING EAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL PERFORMING TOO MUCH SMOOTHING TO GIVE MUCH DETAILS...BUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD GET INTERESTING.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT AND BECOMING EVEN MORE OMINOUS. UKMET/GFS ARE NOW STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF BUT DIFFERING IN POSITION OF THE FEATURES. EITHER WAY THE SIGNAL IS FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TOO MUCH SMOOTHING IS BEING APPLIED...SOMEWHERE WITHIN 400 MILES OF HERE SHOULD SEE A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON MONDAY.

and St Louis:

ALL CALM WEATHER MUST COME TO AN END EVENTUALLY IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SUNDAY TO ALLOW FOR A STORMY PATTERN TO SET UP. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA KICK THE WESTERN TROF OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GULF WILL BE OPEN FOR BUSINESS AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OUT OVER EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI. IT'S A LITTLE EARLY YET TO REALLY NAIL DOWN THE SEVERE THREAT BUT
0-3 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE RUNNING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 M/S. NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT PLENTY FOR SQUALL LINES AND BOW ECHOS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE HINTING THAT WE SHOULD PRIMARILY BE WORRIED ABOUT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

personally, if things get interesting, i'll be leaving the husband and step-kids home while i get to chase... but only if its close by. i'll be at my mom's without the husband, and step-kids, so if things fire up, i may take my mom with me for a drive. its still early, but i just got a new camera, and i'd love to get some use out of it!!!
 
I have mixed feelings about chasing on Sunday, and it's mainly because I have to be back at work in Houston at 5am Monday morning. Yikes!

It also depends on where I end up Saturday night after that chase. Am I going to have time for any sleep this weekend? :shock:
 
TSA mentions the following in their 9:50 discussion tonight:


THINGS COULD BE INTERESTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF
ELEVATED MORNING STORMS/CLOUD COVER THIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW
FOR SOME HEATING.
 
I still think Sunday is being "under" estimated. I see good potential and the possiblity of FINALLY seeing DPs in the upper 60s range.
When I say Sunday, I mean for Oklahoma. I definitely have more confidence in Sunday rather than tomorrow, but we'll see.

In either case, you can sure bet there'll be a bunch of chasers out and I'll be in the mix.
 
Originally posted by Billy Griffin
I still think Sunday is being \"under\" estimated. I see good potential and the possiblity of FINALLY seeing DPs in the upper 60s range.
When I say Sunday, I mean for Oklahoma. I definitely have more confidence in Sunday rather than tomorrow, but we'll see.

In either case, you can sure bet there'll be a bunch of chasers out and I'll be in the mix.

I hope you are right! I do like the higher DPs. The only thing I would like to see is more moisture brought in so the cells have something to feed on. I am also wanting more than one supercell for Sunday so that it doesn't turn out like May 29th of last year when there were more chasers than raindrops. Just like you Billy, I will be out there in the mix as well.
 
Yeah, I think we all recall very well the 29th. Traffic jams everywhere, it was a sure miracle that no one was hurt or worse. :roll: Yes, it would be nice to have, say three, discrete cells marching through some rural areas of Oklahoma. This time, it would be nice to keep them out of the major metro areas!

You know, I really don't think moisture will be a concern. We may not hit 70 as far as DPs, but it would sure be nice to have T-TDs in the 80 ~ 70 range!!! I think I'm going to hold off until Sunday before I chase, unless Saturday takes a turn "up" for the good. I'm still thinking moisture will still be in the "recovery mode" until Sunday afternoon, then... watch out west-central Oklahoma !! :wink:
 
I wonder what the NAM is doing for 18Z Sunday, 65+ degree dewpoints in eastern KS/SE NE and CAPE of 3000+ J/Kg, along with 35 knot upper level winds for a majority of eastern KS/SE NE. At 0Z Monday, it seems to have died off or gone north. Surely I see all this in front of the dryline, but at 1:00PM? Is it a little early?

If this pans out, we could see some very good SVR in east KS and southeast NE.
 
I agree with Billy in Sunday being underforecast. I think Sunday may surprise a few people in E KS/N OK... shear profiles will be weakening thru the day however they will still be sufficient for supercells. I also expect the main convective period will be earlier then Saturday.. which will be key. Shear profiles coupled with moist td's (65F range) and likely a quite unstable atmos (3000 J/KG SBCAPE +) will be worth watching. Add in a few mesoscale boundries and you have the makings of a solid chase day.
 
What is everyones take on initiation time tommarow??? Some indications seem to hold it off till 5pm? (when I get off work)

Eastern Ks looks good to me
 
Sunday is looking tricky. I'm sitting at the Holiday Inn Express in Childress, TX. A fairly decent MCS is progged to form and move across the region tonight. I'm debating chasing the dry line again or the outflow boundaries of the progged MCS.
 
I wish it was looking realy bad today because I am very tired and I have a lot of studying to do for finals. I don't think it is looking that bad though. I am going wait around Wichita until 10 or so and then I will be heading to some place South of OKC. I haven't decided where since I just got up and haven't yet had a chance to look at much. The mention of backing surface winds, CAPE at or >2500J/KG and the hope for stronger mid level winds makes me think this is worth driving a few hours for.
 
Just woke up from 800 mile chase (drove all the way back to ICT from Turkey, TX area. Despite Wichita NWS saying mid-level winds are weak for supercells, I would not totally discount the N OK/S KS area this afternoon, as long as sufficient insolation can take place. Shear profiles are weakening thru the day. 67/62 here at my house, RUC and NAM are both supportive of 2000-2500 J/KG SBCAPE in front of dryline, should more clearing happen, 3000 J/KG not out of the question. Lack of much SFC convergence should hold off convective init till at least 21z. Combination of instability and backing SFC winds, and maybe, maybe... a dryline bulge in NW OK (per RUC..). No time to get into details.. however, I think enough other parameters are coming together (once again, barring insolation) in NC OK/S KS to support more then a landspout type event. Lack of strong SFC convergence DOES concern me, RUC does not even break out precip in the area, NAM does however. For now, I would target just S and E of Wichita.... say Arkansas City.

LOL... simular thoughts there Michael :lol:
 
What a difference 6 hours makes. 500mb winds that were progged at 40kt+ over Oklahoma are now forecasted to be shunted S and E again. Maybe it'll take another dramatic turn before the day is out? :lol:

All in all, it's gonna take some type of mesoscale boundary to probably kick any type of a decent show off today, and even then, things look to be in the HP category, YUCK. But Low Level shear, instability, etc. is great, its just that the mid and upper level support is gonna suck big time, so it looks like more of the same this year, we get one thing one day (winds) and another thing another (instability) and we get two subpar days out of the deal. I'm still hopeful, but I'm not driving very far today to bust again :(
 
I agree with you guys on SE KS. I arrived in ICT this morning, and I'm just hanging out to see how quickly the dryline moves...I'm thinking the RUC is a little fast and things will probably break out near I35...If the cap breaks, it could be a good show. RUC progs SRH values of 350+ in SE KS ahead of the dryline bulge with nicely backed winds. Deep layer shear on the order of 28-30knts will get it done. I've seen nice torns with deep layer shear in that realm, but the storms themselves are usually not long lived. Good luck to those out today, this was pretty much on my way home from yesterday, so I figured what the heck. Now I'm really starting to like the set up.

Dan
 
I could almost see a repeat of yesterday in NE but a bit further east, say Lincoln. Maybe some of that cirrus can keep tail end charlie a bit more north. I guess I am thinking Lincoln and perhaps slightly west and fairly early.
 
I am still hanging out in Grand Island, NE after yesterday's successful chase in SC Nebraska. I agree with Mike that we could possibly see a repeat of yesterday's event, just a little further east, and maybe north. I will leave Grand Island in about an hour and head east to the Lincoln area after I do some more data checking here at the Free Wi-Fi Spot at the Bosselman Travel Center near I-80 and US-281.

EDIT: SPC now has an area roughly north of Omaha in MDT Risk Category.
 
I'm in San Angelo TX at chase partner Derek Deroche's place, waiting on him to get off work from WFO SJT. We dont have much of a choice today excpet play the dryline close by. Latest Vis imagery shows an outflow boundary to our SE moving NW from the MCS to our south.

The height gradient in the trough axis is pathetic and will obviously yeild weak midlevel flow. however lapse rates are very nice jsut looking at teh surrounding RAOBs. (SJT doesnt launch baloons.)
 
I expect an SPC MCD any minute for C KS into N OK. Line of CU are beginning to develop accross Central KS... radar also indicates a few echos west and north of Hutchinson, KS. New RUC forecast for the first time indicates isolated precip breaking out near/before 0z accross SC KS/NC OK. Im still liking the area on the head of the dry punch in SC KS.. increasing SFC conv also evident accross NC OK/S KS. Temps have warmed to near 80F along dryline with tds of 62-63... sufficient for 2000-2500 J/KG SBCAPE. Feel initiation may take place near the Harper, KS area in the next 1-3 hrs. Mid-level winds are the main negating factor considering strong directional low-level shear and instability are in place.

I am sitting at my house in East Wichita watching closely... van is packed and ready to go.
 
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