Matthew Havin
EF2
Echoing some of the chatter in the "Future of the Season" thread, I'd like to formally welcome back severe weather potential to the Plains for Tuesday. It's about time!
A 500mb shortwave will eject out of the Rockies Tuesday morning, supporting a 995-1000mb surface low by 21Z Tuesday somewhere between NC KS and central NE (according to the 12Z and 18Z Sat runs of the NAM). The GFS has a northern low in SD and a southern low in KS...which will likely become better resolved as a few more runs pass. Dewpoints in the 64-68F range will be possible in central/eastern NE supporting 2000-2500+ CAPE, coupled with 0-3km helicity in excess of 150-250m2/s2 across E NE.....supporting supercells with storm motions less than 30 mph.
Better resolution will of course come in the days ahead, but for those making plans, good launching points for Tuesday in my mind will be from Grand Island to Lexington NE (I-80), and down to Salina to Hays KS (I-70)(Kansas only a good idea if models revert to more southerly low as what 12Z NAM had).
A 500mb shortwave will eject out of the Rockies Tuesday morning, supporting a 995-1000mb surface low by 21Z Tuesday somewhere between NC KS and central NE (according to the 12Z and 18Z Sat runs of the NAM). The GFS has a northern low in SD and a southern low in KS...which will likely become better resolved as a few more runs pass. Dewpoints in the 64-68F range will be possible in central/eastern NE supporting 2000-2500+ CAPE, coupled with 0-3km helicity in excess of 150-250m2/s2 across E NE.....supporting supercells with storm motions less than 30 mph.
Better resolution will of course come in the days ahead, but for those making plans, good launching points for Tuesday in my mind will be from Grand Island to Lexington NE (I-80), and down to Salina to Hays KS (I-70)(Kansas only a good idea if models revert to more southerly low as what 12Z NAM had).