Skip Talbot
EF5
GFS has been showing a trough entering the plains on Tuesday, and now that the WRF is in range, it seems to agree. The models differ on the position of the triple point, with the GFS placing it up by the NE border near Goodland and WRF to the southeast by Dodge City.
Looking off of the WRF:
Although the upper level winds are not as strong as we have seen in the big setups earlier this year, the 0-6km shear is still forecast to be between 30 and 50 knots over west central KS, which is definitely sufficient for supercells. A 998 surface low over the panhandles will back the surface winds with nice veerying up through the levels to mainly westerly at 500 mb. SRH values between 150-300 and a decent LLJ.
The dryline is forecast to tighten as moisture advects in from the south. With dewpoints near 65, there is a forecasted SBCAPE of 2500 in west central KS. The WRF also shows a stout cap in the morning, but it erodes across South Dakota, Nebraska, and finally Kansas in the early evening. Precip is forcasted by 0z, and the cap gone. This situation would make for a nice chase setup with the early crap being suppressed and supercells going up when the upper level winds have had more time to enter the area, and with a few hours of daylight left.
I'd say west central Kansas looks like a good spot for supercells on Tuesday evening with a tornado threat as well given the LLJ and adequate moisture. I'll narrow my target down as the models settle on the location of the triple point.
Looking off of the WRF:
Although the upper level winds are not as strong as we have seen in the big setups earlier this year, the 0-6km shear is still forecast to be between 30 and 50 knots over west central KS, which is definitely sufficient for supercells. A 998 surface low over the panhandles will back the surface winds with nice veerying up through the levels to mainly westerly at 500 mb. SRH values between 150-300 and a decent LLJ.
The dryline is forecast to tighten as moisture advects in from the south. With dewpoints near 65, there is a forecasted SBCAPE of 2500 in west central KS. The WRF also shows a stout cap in the morning, but it erodes across South Dakota, Nebraska, and finally Kansas in the early evening. Precip is forcasted by 0z, and the cap gone. This situation would make for a nice chase setup with the early crap being suppressed and supercells going up when the upper level winds have had more time to enter the area, and with a few hours of daylight left.
I'd say west central Kansas looks like a good spot for supercells on Tuesday evening with a tornado threat as well given the LLJ and adequate moisture. I'll narrow my target down as the models settle on the location of the triple point.